Belligerents, Nationalism, Support
First, Hamas is a terrorist organization. There is no debating with them or reasoning with them. Despite what they claim now, I believe Hamas will exist as long as Israel exists and will always try to kill Israelis and Jews until none are left. But without military support from other countries, it would have very little ability to harm Israel or Israelis.
Secondly, a lot of Israel's settlements and occupations are illegal. The Sinai, occupied in 1967, was returned to Egypt, all occupation ended and all settlers withdrawn. They still illegally occupy the Golan Heights, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. Other occupied territories were ceded to Israel in various treaties.
Thirdly, Palestinians are victims from both sides. As the younger generation has grown with a warped education system and no first-hand exposure to reasons to question it, their support for Hamas has only increased. But I find it difficult to blame them given the situation they are in and I think given the chance and several years to build trust the damage done can be reversed.
Fourthly, this is not a religious issue but a nationalist issue. The fighting is and has always been about the land and who controls it, not about which religious ideology is superior. While a protracted peace might result in the religious disagreements coming to the forefront, thus far they have been irrelevant except as a motivator and justifier.
Lastly, the US and a handful of other countries have been unwavering in their support for Israel, but by and large the international community has attempted time and time again to condemn and sanction Israel over their illegal settlements. While the US offers a staggering amount of military support, Israel is very short on political support on the international stage.
Context and Occupations
After the first Arab-Israeli War, Israel agreed to the UNTSO Armistice process but then refused to attend any the meetings held by he commissions. As part of their settlement with Egypt after the 3rd and 4th Arab-Israeli war, they withdrew all settlers and military personnel from the Sinai and returned it to Egyptian control.
Israel has refused to return the Golan citing primarily that it was taken in a "defensive war" and so they have no obligation to "give it back". They claim a Jewish majority population, "thousands of years of historical rule", the defensive value of the area, and water rights as secondary reasons. But these are all reasons Palatine gives for wanting control of Palestinian lands back (except the defensive value argument) and so Israel is really in no position to make those arguments. Some are also questionable. The idea that you just get to keep land from a defensive war has no basis in history. Transfer of land can and should only be in conjunction with a peace treaty, but with Israel not attending UNTSO Armistice committee meetings they are not operating in good faith.
Israel has refused to end occupations and settlements in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank primarily by playing semantics games: they claim no nation actually has legal claim to it and therefore they have no one to return it to. They also argue they need to hold it under occupation until they can bring an end to the operations of terrorist groups like Hamas.
Current Strategy and Situation
In the last 15 years, up to but excluding October 7th of those year, about 309 Israelis have been killed by Hamas. Over the same 15 year period, Israel has killed 8,000 Palestinians. It's a disproportionate amount of death. I've stated my claim that, just as Nazis still exist, Israel will never be able to eliminate Hamas. And if that objective can't be attained, it's worth examining exactly what is being accomplished and whether it's worth doing.
There are 4 primary results from Israel's strategy to attack Palestine disproportionately in response to an attack from Hamas. First, it kills more Palestinians and destroys more Palestinian homes and infrastructure. As I've said multiple times, that merely gives Hamas more ammunition to use in recruiting and creates more hate towards Israel from Palestinians. It's estimated that support for Hamas amongst Palestinians in Gaza has gone from just over 30% to well over 80%, the opposite of what some people believe these restaurations will accomplish. Secondly, it keeps the international community from softening it's views on Israeli policy. Thirdly, it makes it easier for other groups and countries to justify supporting a resistance against Israel which essentially means supporting and supplying Hamas. And lastly, it gives Hamas a legitimate reason to withhold democracy and give Palestinians a chance to bring reform through diplomatic means (remember many countries, including the UK, have justified suspending Democratic processes during times of war).
In short, Israel had killed 8,000 Palestinians, largely civilians, prior to October 7th, and more than 17,000 Palestinians, largely civilians, if you include the period from October 7th until today, and what they have to show for it is more support for Hamas rather than less, a continued erosion of international support, a more well-supplied Hamas, and no way for Palestinians to have any democratic say in how things are done. What has Israel gained from this policy? Nothing. Therefore by every metric, the current strategy is an abysmal failure and had no possibility of being anything but.
Clearly it's time to stop and try something else.
Underlying Challenge
That is the situation as it sits now. In regards to my position: I have said Israel should try something new and I've said the objective of eliminating Hamas in unachievable and therefore any strategy with that objective in mind will fail. I will lay out my thoughts on what Israel should do by first reframing the objective and then by enumerating the actions that Israel should take to get there.
If you look at causes of death in Israel, from most to least common, it is cancer, heart disease, diabetes, strokes and other cerebrovascular diseases, septicemia, dementia, kidney disease, respiratory disease, pneumonia and the flu, and lastly "accidents". People killed by Hamas fit in that last category. In every other developed Western nation, you are more likely to die in an "accident" than you are in Israel despite the presence of Hamas (in the US it's the 4th most common cause of death, and in Canada and Europe it's the 6th). In Palestine, accidents (which includes being killed by the Israeli police or military) is the 4th most common cause of death.
Now these numbers will likely be skewed by the numbers from October 7th onwards. The cowardly and abhorrent attack by Hamas claimed some 1400 Israeli lives and another 9000 Palestinian. The attacks by Hamas have justly been condemned by many as a terrorist attack against civilians. The Israeli response has also been justly condemned by many for its attacks against civilians and civilian infrastructure.
But where did Hamas get the ability to do this? How did a group that's previously only been able to kill a few dozen people at most in one strike kill 14,00? International support, by and large, is the only answer I can think of. They've clearly gotten weapons and support from Iran and potentially other nations. For not the first time in its existence, Israel has sought support for international pressure against countries that support antisemitic terrorist groups and been rebuffed due to their own illegal occupation.
This lack of support is the biggest underlying challenge Israel faces. With international support, Israel may be able to stifle this support for Hamas and reduce their military effectiveness, but without it Israel can only attempt the impossible elimination of Hamas.
Reframing the Objective
The end goal of the Palestinian-Israeli Conflict cannot be the end of antisemitism in the region or the elimination of all antisemites because that's an impossibility. It does not matter what ethnic or religious group you belong to, people hate you simply for being in that group. Some groups experience more hate and some less, but it still exists and always will. The would will never be free of hate. And for Jews that's always been more true than many groups. It's tragic and unfair and I wish bigotry could be wiped out, but it can't.
And that's why the Israeli objectives are bad. They seek to achieve the impossible: the elimination of hate.
Some number of Israelis will always die in Israel. Several years may pass with no death, but eventually hate will bubble to prominence and some Israelis will be killed. Accepting that reality (that no matter how many Palestinians Israel kills, even if they kill all of them, Israel will still occasionally be a target), is the first thing that has to be done. Because once it is, we can adjust the objective from the impossible to something attainable.
There's a term in risk management called ALARA, which stands for "as low as reasonably achievable". When dealing with risk, it can never be reduced to 0. Each subsequent precaution taken to lower it usually has an increasing cost, often an exponentially increasing cost. So the goal is to reduce that number as much as you can before the cost to reduce it further becomes impractical.
This should be the Israeli objectives: reduce Israeli deaths from not just Hamas but all anti-Israeli groups ALARA. And the way to do that is not with oppression, military occupation, and disproportionate violent responses. But rather with a systematic changing of policies to reduce support for those groups.
This means three primary objectives:
1. Reduce support for Hamas from among the Palestinian population
2. Reduce support for Hamas from other groups and nations
3. Increase cooperation from the international community to assist in the other objectives
International Corporation
The biggest thing hindering international cooperation is the illegal Israeli settlements and military occupations. The first step is to reverse this. The Israeli semantics games and the lack of effort towards resolutions that Israel claimed to support need to stop.
First, recall all illegal settlers. After ending the current war and siege of the Gaza (which should be done right now), that should be done immediately. Demonstrate a willingness to work with the international community and abide by international law.
Secondly, approach the UNTSO to resume talks with Syria, and handing the Golan Heights to the UN to be returned to Syria. This should contain no conditions and be immediate regardless of Syria's response to the desire to resume talks.
Third, end all Israeli blockades and immediately send humanitarian end to all areas effected by Israeli occupation over the last 75 years.
The new borders should be those negotiated in the treaties following the 2nd Arab-Israeli Conflict. This would end any legitimate argument used against Israel when they seek international pressure.
At every chance, Israel should push for a resolution introducing sanctions and condemnation of any nation supporting Hamas. It likely won't pass immediately, but will garner more and more support as time passes.
This is also the only legitimate way to reduce support for Hamas from organizations and nations that oppose the legitimacy of an Israeli state. Hopefully the end of illegal settlements and occupations will always accomplish some of that, but other nations, which are off-limits to Israeli military action due to their size and power, can only have their support of terrorists curtailed by international pressure.
Palestinian Opinion
As for dealing with Hamas internally, that's a harder matter. Again, ending illegal occupations and providing aid and succour will do some of the work, and time will help as well. Israel demonstrating they are not the bloodthirsty demons portrayed in the Hamas educational system is the only way to challenge those perceptions though. The constant killing of civilians, destructions on hospitals and schools, and rationing of food and water won't. It's not just about winning "hearts and minds". In fact, it's not about that at all. It's about doing the right thing, being a caring and benevolent society. If that's how you want those who might support your enemy to see you, then ideally you actually are those things.
In addition to calling for sanctions against those who support Hamas in the UN, present or support motions that recognize the right of Palestinians to exist, to be secure, to self-determination and to self-governance. The "Arab Lands" currently occupied and that Israeli semantics games claim "being to no one" should be rightfully part of a Palestinian state. If Israel is to have any hope of a peaceful coexistence, it must recognize it's neighbours as equal members of the human race.
Fighting Hamas
Hamas will always exist and will always attack Israel, and Israel cannot just sit there and do nothing. Some have said that's clearly what I want, but not so. Israel has proven, through operations in the past, that it is capable of restricted, targeted police actions aimed at Hamas. They have carried these operations out very successfully in the West Bank. The world is also aware that they have some of the best trained special forces in the world in the area of urban operations.
They can carry out these operations in Gaza, locate and arrest any known-Hamas members, and neutralize stores of weapons and munitions. This won't be free of bloodshed, but the number is Israelis who die in this operation now and in future will be less than 1400, the number of Palestinians will be some number less than 9000, and Israel will be able to demonstrate its commitment to preserving innocent lives.
The same should occur for incidents going forward. And if, down the road, wherever Palestinian authority exists decides to continue to attack Israel, Israel has a god chance of securing UN support for a resolution to deal with it because it will no longer be engaging in war crimes including illegal occupations.
Summary
Israel needs to abandon the idea of eliminating Hamas; it cannot be done. Instead it should focus on reducing support for Hamas from Palestinians and other nations, and increase support to enable better sanctioning of nations and groups that support Hamas.
To do that, Israel should first end the war, and then try things it has never done before. Namely ending all illegal settlements, recalling all settlers, return all occupied territories, provide aid and relief to all areas that suffered their illegal occupations, recognize Palestinian return to life, security and self-determinism. It should do this without conditions or demands on anyone else.
I think there is near zero chance of Israel doing that. But I think it's the only chance Israel has to live in some semblance of peace with minimal loss of life and maximum support when something does happen.
I know many will say this will just make Israel a target. I don't see how it makes them any more of as target than they already are. Some will see it makes them look weak, I say it will make them look like compassionate, understanding people. Some will say they've already tried this, but everytime Israel said they'd do anything like this it was tied to conditions of someone else going first and also they actively broke their promises and violated their proposal before, during, and after negotiations.
Israel has to act first in good faith. Not because Hamas has acted on good faith, but because Hamas are terrorists and it's foolish to ask them to do anything good. But Israel needs international support to secure itself as much as possible, and to do that it needs to redeem itself on the world stage.
That's what I think should happen. It's not a solution, it doesn't end violence or guarantee no Israelis will ever die to terrorism, but it's the only chance they have in my opinion.
Flame away.
