Turkey downs Russian plane over Syria

[Frankfooter]

Putin said that he could be in Kiev within a week if he wanted to (which is a given). I don't believe that he mentioned Warsaw, as that would have been seen as a provocation against NATO.

Putin has announced sanctions on Turkey, and considering that Russia supplies about 50% of their natural gas and quite a bit of their oil, it could hurt.

 

[mr bojangles]

QUOTE=wilbur;5411262]

There is now the growing realisation (Cameron included) that ISIL cannot be defeated without the Syrian Army. [/FONT][/QUOTE]

There is no"Syrian Army" nor has there been for quiet a while.Assad's "army"melted away long ago into various factions, militias,that aredriven by the need either to protect their neighborhood or to extort from the neighbors around them. Assad had to resort to arming thugs with clubs in Damascus to protect and police it years ago.What remains of the Syrian army isn't controlled by Assad,as its now is mostly militias who have melted away from ISIL and any serious opposition much in the same way the Iraq army did.

In the north of Syria , you have,Hezbollah,Kurds Iranian special forces,Turkmen ,Jabhat Al-Nusra, "the Syrian Army", local militias , ISIL ,Russian air power, all and with different armed agendas.
This is a Zoo,pure chaos. Assad has zero say or control of anything,he is a "idea" about how to find peace. Putin on Assad's recent trip toMoscow barely had the time of day for him as he knows how dis-empowered he is now.

 

[seth gecko]

The only ground force presently engaged that can defeat ISIS is the Syrian Arab Army. It can do that as long as Assad remains in power. Assad goes and the army will fall apart, and ISIS will take control.

I believe that it's Erdogan's plan that, when this happens, and a power vacuum results from the fall of Assad, the Turkish army will swoop in, destroy ISIS, install a puppet in Damascus, and Erdogan can become the Sultan of a new Ottoman Empire.

Only problem is that Russia is in there already. Turkey got frustrated at this, and is now seeing its border with Syria closed by the Kurds (that's why Turkey has been bombing them, our allies!!), and the last bit north of Aleppo is going to fall against the onslaught of the Syrian Army supported by the Russian Air Force, along with allies Hezbollah, Iranian 'advisors', and the motley crew of various Syrian militias, Christians included.

I'd agree with Mr. Bojamgles assessment of the condition of the Syrian Army; they can barely hold their own. But I also agree with you in that it has to be an "arab" army; problem is that this has broken down along shia/sunni lines (that breakdown happened about 30 seconds after the initial reports of a "free Syrian army" of "moderates" seeking "democratic reform" in Syria). Daesh is a Sunni insurgent group, mostly former Iraqi military (which I believe you've correctly pointed out somewhere before). Iraq has completely broken down along these shia/sunni lines, to the point that the state no longer exists, and should Assad fall, Syria will do the same. Turkey is hoping to fill that vacuum, should it occur, but so are the Saudis. So a Turkish army hoping to swoop in and install their puppet may well face another "sunni" uprising (that is, another Saudi-supported proxy army). France and Russia, justifiably angry over the attacks they suffered, will very likely be providing Daesh with exactly what they hope for, which is an "infidel crusader army" operating in the Levant; HUUUGE propaganda value for Daesh recruitment efforts exploiting the fallacy that its a war against Islam. Best idea is an "arab" coalition united against daesh, but that'll never happen as there are too many competing ambitions.
Anyhow, its an extremely complicated situation with very few "good" choices available.

 

[SkyRider]

Turkey is returning the body of the pilot back to Russia.

Heard the E.U. is offering Turkey $4 billion to stem the flow of refugees to Greece and Europe. E.U. will also revisit allowing Turkey to join E.U.

 

[nottyboi]

Putin's biggest problem is that he is militarily over extended.

If NATO joins the fight in the Syrian Turkish border, NATO will win. Of course, no one knows what Putin will do if NATO attacks Russian military in Syria. For instance, if Russia is at war with NATO, maybe Russia invades Poland again. Putin did say back during the Ukraine battles that he could take Warsaw by the weekend. Just to strengthen bargaining position.

If NATO joins the fight on the Syrian border there will be NO WINNERS. People need to stop talking about these crazy scenarios. I think the incident was what it was. And the incident has real benefits for Putin, while Erdogan will do everything he can behind the scenes to repair the relationship with Russia. Because it is a valuable one for Turkey.

 

[nottyboi]

The real issue is whether Obama has real control over the various US agencies active in the region. There are differing vewpoints throughout the CIA, the State Department, the Pentagon, and even within the White House itself. What he's being briefed on may be a very simplistic good guy/bad guy scenario. He could not have been aware of the plotting Victoria Nuland was up to that led to the coup in Ukraine. He was not aware that the Sarin gas attack in Damascus, that was blamed on Assad was in reality the work of Turkish Intelligence. But Seymour Hirsh reported that he was furious at the Turks (probably prodded by a faction within the US government) when he found out.

The US ambassador killed in Libya was mixed up in transferring weapons and Jihadists from Libya to Syria via Turkey. Was Obama aware? I don't think so. At the time, Hilary Clinton was Secretary of State and it's interesting that Obama didn't reappoint her for his second term of office.

She made it clear she did not want to run again, probably saw shit was gonna hit the fan. The only hope for a successful Hillary presidency is if Bills input is included.That makes me optimistic. I heard the US ambassador was killed in a revenge attack, because the US killed an Al Queda leader that helped them remove Ghaddafi (another inter agency fuck up). Its pretty clear Obama does not have the full picture. He needs to go talk to Merkel more.

 

[Titalian]

The bottom line on this is that it was absolutely stupid, ignorant and reckless for the Turks to down a Soviet military plane that was destined for Syria. There's more to this that meets the eye.
Apparently there will be a private meeting between Turk officials and Putin. Another thing to note is the Russian military have caused more damage and chaos in the past few weeks to terrorist groups
than the US have done in a year. Something doesn't smell right here.

 

[wilbur]

QUOTE=wilbur;5411262]

There is now the growing realisation (Cameron included) that ISIL cannot be defeated without the Syrian Army. [/FONT]

/QUOTE]There is no"Syrian Army" nor has there been for quiet a while.Assad's "army"melted away long ago into various factions, militias,that aredriven by the need either to protect their neighborhood or to extort from the neighbors around them. Assad had to resort to arming thugs with clubs in Damascus to protect and police it years ago.What remains of the Syrian army isn't controlled by Assad,as its now is mostly militias who have melted away from ISIL and any serious opposition much in the same way the Iraq army did.

In the north of Syria , you have,Hezbollah,Kurds Iranian special forces,Turkmen ,Jabhat Al-Nusra, "the Syrian Army", local militias , ISIL ,Russian air power, all and with different armed agendas.
This is a Zoo,pure chaos. Assad has zero say or control of anything,he is a "idea" about how to find peace. Putin on Assad's recent trip toMoscow barely had the time of day for him as he knows how dis-empowered he is now.[/QUOTE]

The Syrian Army is tired, exhausted, and about half of what it was 4 years ago (300,000). But it still fights. That you mention Jabhat Al-Nusra along with Hezbollah being on the same side illustrates your lack of knowledge on this matter. Jabhat Al-Nusra is the Al-Qaida affiliate that is the main terrorist group trying to oust Assad. Most of the so-called 'moderate' rebel groups, including the supposedly moderate Turkmen and the remnants of the Free Syrian Army, coordinate closely with or are outright part of Jabhat Al-Nusra (or been wiped out by them). The lines of combat are very clear.

If the Syrian Army didn't exist, it would have been game over already for Assad. The Syrian Army still has over 150,000 soldiers and is still an organized fighting force. The 3000 strong Hezbollah, and the 1000 or so Iranian troops, are the only other really combat effective forces, buy are by no means sufficient in numbers to hold back the so-called rebels, especially Jabhat Al-Nusra. The militias representing various Syrian minorities (including Christians) are not front-line; they don't have the necessary training and are not that effective. They are the ones trying to secure friendly areas

The Syrian Army got a big morale boost when the Russians moved in, and are doing much better with coordinated air power. They are now retaking a lot of lost territory.

Assad has been arming local ethnic militias, including Christians for years. Not with clubs but with AK-47's and RPG's. I don't know where you get the clubs from. A Christian militia even has T-55 tanks, and they've painted big prominent crosses on them.

 

[nottyboi]

/QUOTE]There is no"Syrian Army" nor has there been for quiet a while.Assad's "army"melted away long ago into various factions, militias,that aredriven by the need either to protect their neighborhood or to extort from the neighbors around them. Assad had to resort to arming thugs with clubs in Damascus to protect and police it years ago.What remains of the Syrian army isn't controlled by Assad,as its now is mostly militias who have melted away from ISIL and any serious opposition much in the same way the Iraq army did.

In the north of Syria , you have,Hezbollah,Kurds Iranian special forces,Turkmen ,Jabhat Al-Nusra, "the Syrian Army", local militias , ISIL ,Russian air power, all and with different armed agendas.
This is a Zoo,pure chaos. Assad has zero say or control of anything,he is a "idea" about how to find peace. Putin on Assad's recent trip toMoscow barely had the time of day for him as he knows how dis-empowered he is now.

The Syrian Army is tired, exhausted, and about half of what it was 4 years ago (300,000). But it still fights. That you mention Jabhat Al-Nusra along with Hezbollah being on the same side illustrates your lack of knowledge on this matter. Jabhat Al-Nusra is the Al-Qaida affiliate that is the main terrorist group trying to oust Assad. Most of the so-called 'moderate' rebel groups, including the supposedly moderate Turkmen and the remnants of the Free Syrian Army, coordinate closely with or are outright part of Jabhat Al-Nusra (or been wiped out by them). The lines of combat are very clear.

If the Syrian Army didn't exist, it would have been game over already for Assad. The Syrian Army still has over 150,000 soldiers and is still an organized fighting force. The 3000 strong Hezbollah, and the 1000 or so Iranian troops, are the only other really combat effective forces, buy are by no means sufficient in numbers to hold back the so-called rebels, especially Jabhat Al-Nusra. The militias representing various Syrian minorities (including Christians) are not front-line; they don't have the necessary training and are not that effective. They are the ones trying to secure friendly areas

The Syrian Army got a big morale boost when the Russians moved in, and are doing much better with coordinated air power. They are now retaking a lot of lost territory.

Assad has been arming local ethnic militias, including Christians for years. Not with clubs but with AK-47's and RPG's. I don't know where you get the clubs from. A Christian militia even has T-55 tanks, and they've painted big prominent crosses on them.

I think with more success, we will see the Syrian army reconstituting quite quickly. The Kurds are also quiet effective and I suspect that after this nonsense Putin is tempted to deliver Kurdistan as a gift to the Kurd and the Turks lol.

 

[scouser1]

I think with more success, we will see the Syrian army reconstituting quite quickly. The Kurds are also quiet effective and I suspect that after this nonsense Putin is tempted to deliver Kurdistan as a gift to the Kurd and the Turks lol.

Yes notty the formidable Syrian Arab Army is so awesome that it has spent nearly 5 years unable to defeat a bunch of army defectors, students, lawyers, dentists and farmers. In fact Bashar is commanding a powerful military force that is basically days away from defeat had it not been saved by the terrorists in Hezballah and the fascists in Tehran. Even with the assistance of Russian air power to murder civilians (40 killed today in a blatant air strike on a market under the guise of ¨fighting IS) the SAA has lost ground. Damn these guys in the FSA and other moderate Islamic groups (yes they do exist despite what you Storm Front wannabbes claim, a dude who shouts Allah Akbar isnt always a terrorist, he is quite often a guy with a beard, believes in an invisible wizard in the sky and doesnt like beer or bacon) must be superhuman, they are fighting the Assad´s goons, Hezballah, The Revolutionary Guard, various hired sectarian gangs from Iraq and Afghanistan, ISIS and even Putin´s air force, and they STILL cannot be defeated.

 

[canada-man]

 

[mr bojangles]

/QUOTE]

The Syrian Army is tired, exhausted, and about half of what it was 4 years ago (300,000). But it still fights. That you mention Jabhat Al-Nusra along with Hezbollah being on the same side illustrates your lack of knowledge on this matter. Jabhat Al-Nusra is the Al-Qaida affiliate that is the main terrorist group trying to oust Assad. Most of the so-called 'moderate' rebel groups, including the supposedly moderate Turkmen and the remnants of the Free Syrian Army, coordinate closely with or are outright part of Jabhat Al-Nusra (or been wiped out by them). The lines of combat are very clear.

If the Syrian Army didn't exist, it would have been game over already for Assad. The Syrian Army still has over 150,000 soldiers and is still an organized fighting force. The 3000 strong Hezbollah, and the 1000 or so Iranian troops, are the only other really combat effective forces, buy are by no means sufficient in numbers to hold back the so-called rebels, especially Jabhat Al-Nusra. The militias representing various Syrian minorities (including Christians) are not front-line; they don't have the necessary training and are not that effective. They are the ones trying to secure friendly areas

The Syrian Army got a big morale boost when the Russians moved in, and are doing much better with coordinated air power. They are now retaking a lot of lost territory.

Assad has been arming local ethnic militias, including Christians for years. Not with clubs but with AK-47's and RPG's. I don't know where you get the clubs from. A Christian militia even has T-55 tanks, and they've painted big prominent crosses on them.

A couple of quick points if Assad could direct and field more than a battalion (800 men)I would be very surprised. To suggest
or DREAM of a division (12-15,000 men) or an army corps is ridiculous.
The "Syrian Army" just a few weeks ago was fighting and dumping barrel bombs in suburbs of Damascus and were loosing
ground.

"That you mention Jabhat Al-Nusra along with Hezbollah being on the same side illustrates your lack of knowledge on this matter

"In the north of Syria , you have,Hezbollah,Kurds Iranian special forces,Turkmen ,Jabhat Al-Nusra, "the Syrian Army", local militias , ISIL ,Russian air power, all and with different armed agendas."


Please point out exactly where I say Jabhat Al-Nusra and Hezbollah being on the same side???
I actually said the opposite.

 

[red]

Immoral and unethical behavior and a war crime.


Further you may have read how Luftwaffe fighter pilots reacted when some Nazi idiot wanted them to strafe Allied pilots in their parachutes - almost to a man they refused saying that besides being immoral, what did they expect would next happen to shot down Luftwaffe pilots.

Its strange that shooting pilots who are parachuting down is a war crime but bombing civilians without planes or air defences is not

 

[whitewaterguy]

Its strange that shooting pilots who are parachuting down is a war crime but bombing civilians without planes or air defences is not

Orwellian.. Not very much different however than Obama receiving his peace prize

 

[basketcase]

...

"That you mention Jabhat Al-Nusra along with Hezbollah being on the same side illustrates your lack of knowledge on this matter
...

Hopefully most people acknowledge that the Iranian troops and Hezbollah have the same agenda and their agenda is mostly aligned with Assad's agenda. Putin's agenda is different (wants to show Russia as a superpower) but in action he is aligning himself with Assad agenda.

The rebels on the other hand have different agendas from each other and to a fair extent want to kill each other as much as they want to kill Assad. There might be some collaboration on specific issues and I'm sure there are people in all groups putting personal profit ahead of politics.

 

[nottyboi]

Yes notty the formidable Syrian Arab Army is so awesome that it has spent nearly 5 years unable to defeat a bunch of army defectors, students, lawyers, dentists and farmers. In fact Bashar is commanding a powerful military force that is basically days away from defeat had it not been saved by the terrorists in Hezballah and the fascists in Tehran. Even with the assistance of Russian air power to murder civilians (40 killed today in a blatant air strike on a market under the guise of ¨fighting IS) the SAA has lost ground. Damn these guys in the FSA and other moderate Islamic groups (yes they do exist despite what you Storm Front wannabbes claim, a dude who shouts Allah Akbar isnt always a terrorist, he is quite often a guy with a beard, believes in an invisible wizard in the sky and doesnt like beer or bacon) must be superhuman, they are fighting the Assad´s goons, Hezballah, The Revolutionary Guard, various hired sectarian gangs from Iraq and Afghanistan, ISIS and even Putin´s air force, and they STILL cannot be defeated.

Who are the sources for this report?

The pro-opposition Orient TV
The Army of Conquest alliance
UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said (no boots on the ground)

Sure they have not been defeated for 2 months, but things are getting rather warm for your beheading buddies.

 

[nottyboi]

Its strange that shooting pilots who are parachuting down is a war crime but bombing civilians without planes or air defences is not

When did this happen? One of the pilots was killed so clearly these people were armed.

 

[fuji]

Well the Germans certainly thought that. Russia can mine Turkeys ports, and pretty much attack Turkey with impunity using cruise missiles. Once all the Turkish runways are bombed out they will be pretty much sitting ducks. Not to mention the tactical nukes the Russians have as a failsafe. Turkeys F-16s are all pretty old and have not been updated. They cannot really take on the more advanced Russian fighters. Turkey has withdrawn its fighters from Syria, the USA, French and Israel now have to inform Russia where they plan to attack to avoid an S400 attack. The Turkish shoot down was such a perfect pretext for S400 deployment, I really think Putin baited the Turks. Russia now has control of most Syrian airspace. Thanks Turkey!!!

There is a huge difference between the force that Russia can bring to bear in Russia, and what they can do in Syria or Turkey. Russia doesn't have what it would take to invade Turkey. That is not to say Turkey could threaten Russia in Russia, but in Syria on the ground Turkey can arrange it so lots of Russians die, and there is very little Russia can do about it. Whatever Putin's goals were, he will fail.

Putin should have made a deal with Turkey, not wound up turning them into an evemy. It was just arrogant and stupid, Putin blew it. Yes Ergodan is a hot head, with facsist leanings, just like Putin. It is a pissing contest that is lose/lose for the both of them.

 

[fuji]

When did this happen? On of the pilots was killed so clearly these people were armed.

The civilians, including children, who were bombed by the Russian war criminals, however, were not.

 

[wilbur]

Goering quote:

“Why of course the people don't want war. Why should some poor slob on a farm want to risk his life in a war when the best he can get out of it is to come back to his farm in one piece? Naturally the common people don't want war: neither in Russia, nor in England, nor for that matter in Germany. That is understood. But after all it is the leaders of a country who determine the policy and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy or fascist dictorship, or a parliament or a communist dictatorship. Voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked, and denounce the peace makers for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same in any country.”

Kind of reminds me of what comes out of the US.