This year, I estimated he could get somewhere between 35 and 40 goals at age 36. Where we differ in opinion is that I don't think he'll keeps scoring at a 40-50 goals per season clip, even in the next two seasons. I guess-timated around 25 goals per year is possible, but not probable IMO, which in my view reflects his advancing age, his injury history, and the fact the game has significantly changed since Brett Hull scored 37 and 25 in 2003 and 2004 respectively. Just don't see it happening for him. In fact, I suspect he'll wind up retiring due to injury before he gets close enough to seriously challenge Gretzky's record. Don't get me wrong, I'm not rooting for him to fail. I just think the odds are stacked too much against him.
Ovi will pass Gretzky.
- Thread starter wazup
- Start date
Where am I giving him 40-50 goals this year or next? I am giving him 70 or 75 total in my assumptions.
What injury history? He has missed more than 5 games in a season twice and those were short absences. Once he missed 8 games and once he missed 11.
In terms of the game changing a lot since 2003/2004.. goal scoring is up about 14% per year. Game is less chippy, cracking down on cross checks this year. There have been more 40 year olds that have been productive in the last 15 years compared to 1990-2005. More elite players are healthier now and productive longer in all the major sports than say 15 years ago.
What has changed for the worse since 2004 that would make it harder for Ovi?
Don’t want to discount the possibility of injuries doing him in. Happens when you are older but he has been incredibly durable.
To me only 2 things can do him in :
1. Injuries
2. Not wanting to play until he is 41 or 42.
But if he wants to play to 41 or 42, avoids injuries, to me the calculus to get to 893 is very reasonable. Pooducing those targets will not be a problem if health is not a problem.
To me only 2 things can do him in :
1. Injuries
2. Not wanting to play until he is 41 or 42.
But if he wants to play to 41 or 42, avoids injuries, to me the calculus to get to 893 is very reasonable. Pooducing those targets will not be a problem if health is not a problem.
Which is it? Is it 'He's incredibly durable and won't likely get injured.', or 'the NHL is a much softer league nowadays, so odds are low he'll get injured.'? And try to remember he's 36 years old now, not 26. And it's arguably the most violent sport on the planet.
First off, we're talking hockey here, not all other major sports - they are irrelevant.
Second, not sure what league you're watching hockey games from. The NHL game is definitely NOT less chippy. In the NHL today, there is nothing BUT crazy slashes, cross-checks to the face and back, hits from behind and blind-sides into the boards. Players are consistently hooked on the arms and mid-section even when they don't have the puck, just trying to gain position in the play. Every play around the net ends with a scrum where someone is grabbing someone else around the neck from behind and twisting their head around. Why? Because there are so many deliberate crashes into the crease, and chops to the goalie when he's down covering the puck. Deliberate head shots abound. Players have never had less respect for each others' health and safety than they do today. Just look back to last season and look at the crazy injuries to elite players: Can anyone say John Tavares? Artemi Panarin? Oscar Klefbom? Vlad Tarasenko? Tyler Seguin? Nikita Kucherov? Aaron Ekblad?
Elite players are healthier? Interesting. In the NHL today, the following are listed as injured, not expected to play.
- Ryan Ellis
- Jack Hughes (future star)
- Jon Drouin
- Drew Doughty
- Quinton Byfield (future star)
- Jack Eichel (future star)
- Patrick Laine (future star)
- Shea Weber
- Evgeni Malkin
- Cale Makar (future star)
- Nathan McKinnon
- Mark Stone
- N. Kucherov
- Max Pacioretty
- TJ Oshie
- John Tavares
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Lol how is Jack Eichel is a futrue star, he 25 yo , he should be a star player by now
He played for a shitty Sabres team, and is now injured. If he comes back healthy, he could be a top 5 player in the league.
As for Ovie, I honestly didn't think Gretzky's goal record would fall so soon, especially when we were in the dead puck era. But Ovie is an amazing player. I think there are only a couple of ways he does not break it:
- His health. He blows a knee or hurts his back.
- Age. His production starts to decline
- Work stoppage. Ovie is under contract until the end of the 2025-26 season. If he doesn't break it, but is close, he'd probably play one more season. However, the CBA expires then, and there could be a work stoppage...
Maybe. He would need to stay healthy and consistently score at least 40 a season, if not more. I mean, the goal total is massive. The fact Ovie is even sniffing says something, especially in this day and age of the game, where basically every team tries to play a defensive game.
