Ovi will pass Gretzky.
- Thread starter wazup
- Start date
He's 36 years of age now and needs like 160 goals. I would love to see him do it just to see the looks on the faces of all the salty North American hockey pundits lol 
I was super happy for him when he won his Stanley Cup he paid his dues and really deserved it, and he didn't let it out of his sight for the entire summer lol
I was super happy for him when he won his Stanley Cup he paid his dues and really deserved it, and he didn't let it out of his sight for the entire summer lol
I had him breaking the record early last year and certainly didn’t change my mind after last night.
Ultimately it comes down to how much he wants the record. If he really wants it to the point he will play until 42 or 43 he will get it. He is good enough on the PP and teams will always want the publicity so he could have 3 or 4 years of 20 goals say after 39.
In recent years we have had many top forwards who were productive in their
40s. Here is a list of forwards who have scored 20 or more at the age of 40 or over
Teemu Selanne
Dave Andreychuk
Ja Jagr
Gary Roberts
Mark Recchi.
Messier and Alfredssom got 18.
Ultimately it comes down to how much he wants the record. If he really wants it to the point he will play until 42 or 43 he will get it. He is good enough on the PP and teams will always want the publicity so he could have 3 or 4 years of 20 goals say after 39.
In recent years we have had many top forwards who were productive in their
40s. Here is a list of forwards who have scored 20 or more at the age of 40 or over
Teemu Selanne
Dave Andreychuk
Ja Jagr
Gary Roberts
Mark Recchi.
Messier and Alfredssom got 18.
The 2012-13 labour stoppage and COVID probably cost Ovechkin close to 70 goals.
Correct assumption. I was taking the approach that since he scores so few goals, there can't be too many that were in blowouts or vs. bad teams.
Assuming he can pot another 20-25 (or more) goals over the balance of this season, he'd still have to pot, on average, about 25 goals per season for likely another 5 seasons to break Gretzky's record. Six years is a looooonnnngggg time in today's NHL. He'd be at least 41-42 years old and still scoring at a 25 goals per season clip. Maybe, but a BIG maybe.
More likely he starts to really decline in production meaning another 2-3 seasons beyond that. Now he's 45 years old and still playing enough significant minutes to get the goals he needs!?
Hate to say it, but I think he comes up pretty short, not due to talent, but more due to the ravages of time.
He's scored 11 goals in 12 games but you only see him scoring 20-25 in the remaining 70 games...really.
No, I don't see him scoring 40-50 goals this season unfortunately. I haven't any crystal ball one way or the other, just a hockey enthusiast's hunch.
Not sure why are you bringing up his need to produce at 45.
Here is the problem with you analysis. You are using averages and then looking at achieving that average number at the back end year of the term to make your conclusion.
25 looks like a lot from a 41-42 year old. Sure.****.
But why would you expect him to only have average 25 goals in his age 36 and 37 seasons … when he already has 11 goals in 12 games in his age 36 season, and has averaged over 48 a year , covid adjusted, the last 3 years?
You give him 70 total this year and next (hardly unreasonable) then has to average 20 over those last 4 years to get to the average target you set.
**** Is 20 goals as a 38, 39, 40 and 41 year old unreasonable. Hardly. Here is a list of modern players who scored 20 goals as 40 year olds+. Selanne, Andreychuk, Roberts, Recchi, Jagr. Messier and Alfredsson scored 18 or more.
The list of 38 and 39 year olds other than those listed above that scored more than 20 in a season is quite long. But it includes names like Mike Knuble, Shane Doan, and Ray Whitney who all scored 25 or more.
Not sure why the greatest goal scorer of all time could not score at the same rate as those players.
Maybe the best comparable in terms of pure sniping is Brett Hull. And Hull scored 62 goals as a 38 and 39 year old. He quickly regressed after that because he got fat and neglected his body during the strike year and he already had back issues in his early mid 30s.
But using the Brett Hull comparison — if Ovechkin scored 70 the next 2 years, and 62 like Hull at the age of 38 and 39. That would put him about 30 goals behind the record before he evens turn 40. That is a good case scenario but not that unfathomable either.
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If
a) there was no strike in 2013
B) no strike in 2005
C) no covid
D) If goals were scored at the same rate as Gretzkys career
Alex Ovechkin would have approximately 1040 goals. Today.
