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Ovi will pass Gretzky.

K Douglas

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727 Ovechkin
894 Gretzky

Since the start of the 2017-18 season, in 268 games, Alex has 169 goals, .63 goals per game.
He's 167 goals from catching Wayne.
Should he maintain that pace, and avoid injury, he would hit 894 about in about 3.25 seasons.
Hark I hear an echo
 
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K Douglas

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He has well over a 50% chance. Things don’t even have to break perfectly.

The problem with many calculation is the assumption that he has to get it done in 4 years or before his age 40 season.

Selanne played until he was 43 ... had 31 and 26 goal seasons after 40. Mark Recchi played until he was 42... averaged about 50 points a game in those 3 last years. Jags played until he was 45 and had very productive offensive seasons at 41 and 43. Chara is now 43... he was still above average during his 40 and 41 year old seasons.

Say ovechkin gets another 8 goals this year and averages 30 over his next 4 seasons. Those are not far fetched expectations.

Then he is 40 goals away from the record entering the age 40 season. At that point he more the likely stretched out his career to break the record. Even if he was 50 or 60 away he could do the same.

It comes down to how important the record is to Ovechkin. If it is really important.he will stretch out his career as needed.
Here's the difference. None of those guys played a hard game like Ovechkin. Dude was dishing out 200+ hits per year. His 35 year old body has a lot of wear and tear. Plus the law of averages would dictate that he's due for an injury that will force him to miss considerable time. That being said he's a machine and very determined so it wouldn't surprise me if he accomplished it. Just would not put the odds at well over 50% like you think.
 

gcostanza

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gcostanza

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wazup

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Here's the difference. None of those guys played a hard game like Ovechkin. Dude was dishing out 200+ hits per year. His 35 year old body has a lot of wear and tear. Plus the law of averages would dictate that he's due for an injury that will force him to miss considerable time. That being said he's a machine and very determined so it wouldn't surprise me if he accomplished it. Just would not put the odds at well over 50% like you think.
He stopped playing like that years ago. I think he has 7 years left. Although long playoff runs 🏃‍♀️could be detrimental.
 

black booty lover

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He stopped playing like that years ago. I think he has 7 years left. Although long playoff runs 🏃‍♀️could be detrimental.
My guess is he has at best 2 seasons left where he can score 50. Obviously those being the next two seasons and everything has to go right. That would bring to him to about 826 or so. After that he'll be 38 going into the next season and you should see a significant drop off in production. Father time catches up with everyone and he's no different. He would still need almost 70 goals to pass The Great One. I can't see it happening.
 
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K Douglas

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I know records are meant to be broken, but this record I would like to stay in Canada.
I'm ok if Ovi breaks the record, Gretzky's got so many. It wouldn't change my mind that he is the greatest hockey player of all time.
 
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maurice93

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Here's the difference. None of those guys played a hard game like Ovechkin. Dude was dishing out 200+ hits per year. His 35 year old body has a lot of wear and tear. Plus the law of averages would dictate that he's due for an injury that will force him to miss considerable time. That being said he's a machine and very determined so it wouldn't surprise me if he accomplished it. Just would not put the odds at well over 50% like you think.
I am actually building in a huge discount of 40% already for loss of production or potential injuries.

The last 4 years he has 48, 51, 57 and 42. That is 198 goals. (Note the 57 is based on Washington playing 82 games instead of 69, and the 42 is his current pace over a full 82 game season).

My projection has 120 goals over the next 4 years. That Is a 40% haircut over the prior 4 year total.. That is pretty significant and could account for both injuries or production.

Let’s look at Brett Hull for example who actually had back issues in his early 30s. He scored 125 goals in his age 32-35 seasons, and scored 131 in his age 36-39 seasons, while getting about the same goals per game.

If he gets within 40 at the age of 40 he is likely not going to hang them up. But where the tough decision may need to be made is if the capitals are still competitive he may need to go some other lesser team where he can be a pp scpecialist and get more ice time when he is in a real decline phase.
 

superstar_88

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Is Dart saying Ovi is not able to pot more empty net goals because he is not competent enough or trusted by the coaches at protecting leads 5 on 6 with the opposition goalie out like it's a badge of honour.
 

maurice93

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My guess is he has at best 2 seasons left where he can score 50. Obviously those being the next two seasons and everything has to go right. That would bring to him to about 826 or so. After that he'll be 38 going into the next season and you should see a significant drop off in production. Father time catches up with everyone and he's no different. He would still need almost 70 goals to pass The Great One. I can't see it happening.
So your stating that you think he could possibly put up 50 at the age of 37 if everything goes right, but will have a hard time putting up 70 total after that?

In my mind if he puts up 75 over the next 2 years he will be in very good shape.

That will put him around 810 and 85 away. Entering his age 38 season. The closer and closer he gets the more motivated he will be to hang around for a year or two after that.

With his style and his PP skills he will have a place in the league into his 40s.
 

maurice93

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I was looking online to see if there was any betting lines on this.

I saw an article from early 2020 where sports interaction had a prop bet of Ovechkin at +600 to break the record .. that is implied odds of 15-20%, plus they get to hold on to your cash for a while which is a risk on the bettor. Unfortunately could not find anything more current. But obviously based on my posts I would have put some money down on it, even with the issues around a long term prop.
 

maurice93

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Agreed. Bob McCown makes a great case against in McCown's Law: The 100 Greatest Hockey Arguments .
Agreed. Bob McCown makes a great case against in McCown's Law: The 100 Greatest Hockey Arguments .
Bob Mccown’s strength was never making a great argument about on the playing field related matters ... especially in his last 10 years when he was going through the motions at times. I can’t see why his book would be any different. Don’t get me bring I liked listening to bob on the radio while driving. But he was a good listen because he could make discussing an issue of sport interesting.

But at least it’s better than referencing Don Cherry on such a matter. Cherry would say OVechkin won’t get it because those Euros don’t love hockey like our good old Canadian boys.
 

redshank

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Not sure if it has been mentioned but Ovi also lost what should have been his rookie season because of the lockout