Keys has the power, but doesn't move well enough to beat the top players. Since Muguruza got upset by a unranked, I like Kvitova or maybe Kerber.
Bouchard looks good, she's moving well and hitting it with good pace, she could make a long run.
Keys has beaten Kvitova before. She OUTHIT Kvitova at the AO in 2015. So she has shown she can beat a top player. The very SAME Kvitova that made Genie look like a little girl in the Wimby final couple years back. And I would argue that signature win is better than any win Genie has ever had. To be quite honest I even struggle to think of a signature win Genie has had on a big stage. Lot of her 2014 was based on soft draws at majors.
Also, if you saw the Keys/Serena AO SF from 2015 Keys gave Serena a good fight. In fact she had Serena on the defense and on her heels a LOT in that match.
I do agree with you though that Keys isn't an elite mover. But her movement is good enough in my opinion to win on a surface like grass. Though there is still room for improvement in that department. It is improving because I recall in 2015 she was getting to balls that she wasn't getting to in 2014. But remember Bartoli won Wimbledon and she wasn't exactly a great mover.
Also, on grass movement isn't nearly as important as it is say on clay. I just think the surface really accentuates her strengths. If she can just think more and be smart with her shot-selection she can do a lot of damage. She sometimes seems to be in a rush to win. No need for her to always try to pull the trigger so early in rallies or flirt with the lines as much as she does. It is okay to win a point with a combination of shots or a forced error rather than a winner early in the rally all the time.
Also, Keys isn't anywhere near a finished product. So she is can still get MUCH better. And she is already top 10.
BG said last year that Keys would be World No. 1 within a couple years.
