Why Warming Oceans Matter

[niniveh]

Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation - Nature Communications

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a major tipping element in the climate system. Here, data-driven estimators for the time of tipping predict a potential AMOC collapse mid-century under the current emission scenario.

www.nature.com

 

[oil&gas]

Can anyone figure out precisely what is predicted based on the abstract of the
linked report?

<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a major tipping element in the climate system and a future collapse would have severe impacts on the climate in the North Atlantic region. In recent years weakening in circulation has been reported, but assessments by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), based on the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) model simulations suggest that a full collapse is unlikely within the 21st century. Tipping to an undesired state in the climate is, however, a growing concern with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Predictions based on observations rely on detecting early-warning signals, primarily an increase in variance (loss of resilience) and increased autocorrelation (critical slowing down), which have recently been reported for the AMOC. Here we provide statistical significance and data-driven estimators for the time of tipping. We estimate a collapse of the AMOC to occur around mid-century under the current scenario of future emissions.
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Just for fun here are more excerpts:

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A forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a major concern as it is one of the most important tipping elements in Earth’s climate system. In recent years, model studies and paleoclimatic reconstructions indicate that the strongest abrupt climate fluctuations, the Dansgaard-Oeschger events, are connected to the bimodal nature of the AMOC. Numerous climate model studies show a hysteresis behavior, where changing a control parameter, typically the freshwater input into the Northern Atlantic,.........................................................................................................
..................................................................................................................................................
In this work, we show that a transition of the AMOC is most likely to occur around 2025-2095 (95% confidence interval).
...................................................................................................
Predicting a forthcoming collapse of the AMOC
The AMOC fingerprint shown in Fig. 1e (replotted in Fig. 5a) shows an increased variance, γ2, and autocorrelation, ρ, plotted in Fig. 5b, c as functions of the mid-point of a 50-year running window, i.e., the EWS obtained in 2020 is assigned to the year 1995. The estimates leave the confidence band of the baseline values (pink area) around the year 1970. This is not the estimate of t0, which happened earlier and is still to be estimated; it is the year where EWSs are statistically different from baseline values. The estimates after 1970 stay consistently above the upper limit of the confidence interval and show an increasing trend, and we thus conclude that the system is moving toward the tipping point with high probability............................
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To estimate the tipping time once it has been established that the variance and autocorrelation are increasing, we use two independent methods to check the robustness of our results: (1) Moment-based estimator that uses the variance and autocorrelation..........................................
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We have provided a robust statistical analysis to quantify the uncertainty in observed EWSs for a forthcoming critical transition. The confidence depends on how rapidly the system is approaching the tipping point. With this, the significance of the observed EWSs for the AMOC has been established. This is a stronger result than just observing a significant trend in the EWS by, say, Kendall’s τ test. Here we calculate when the EWS are significantly above the natural variations. Furthermore, we have provided a method to not only determine whether a critical transition will happen but also an estimate of when it will happen. We predict with high confidence the tipping to happen as soon as mid-century (2025–2095 is a 95% confidence range). These results are under the assumption that the model is approximately correct, and we, of course, cannot rule out that other mechanisms are at play, and thus, the uncertainty is larger. However, we have reduced the analysis to have as few and sound assumptions as possible, and given the importance of the AMOC for the climate system, we ought not to ignore such clear indicators of an imminent collapse.

The hysteresis simulations gathered in the model intercomparison34 are equilibrium runs, for which a prediction of a future collapse does obviously not apply. Likewise, for the simulations specified in the CMIP6 experiment. It could though be relevant to evaluate our method on state-of-the-art climate model simulations with linearly ramped external forcing and different ramping speeds in order to obtain the model-specific confidence in early prediction of the collapse judged solely from the EWSs.
............................................................................................
Even with these reservations, this is indeed a worrisome result, which should call for fast and effective measures to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions in order to avoid the steady change of the control parameter toward the collapse of the AMOC (i.e., reduce temperature increase and freshwater input through ice melting into the North Atlantic region). As a collapse of the AMOC has strong societal implications38, it is important to monitor the flow and EWS from direct measurements39,40,41.
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In order to see that this is indeed the case for the AMOC transition also in comprehensive climate models, Fig. 2 is adapted from the model intercomparison study34. The steady state curves obtained are from simulations, with a very slowly changing control parameter (freshwater forcing). The top panel shows ocean-only models, while the bottom panel shows atmosphere-ocean models. The curves are, even away from the transition, surprisingly well fitted by Eq. (13). Note that for some models, the transition happens before the critical point, as should be expected from noise-induced transitions. Note also that the data has been smoothed such that increasing variance close to the transition is not visible. This observation strongly supports the assumption of a saddle-node bifurcation,.............................
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I am a bit disappointed no references are provided in the
report for readers to look up survival skills for the pending
climate collapse.

 

[SchlongConery]

Can anyone figure out precisely what is predicted based on the abstract of the
linked report?

<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a major tipping element in the climate system and a future collapse would have severe impacts on the climate in the North Atlantic region.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

I am a bit disappointed no references are provided in the
report for readers to look up survival skills for the pending
climate collapse.

This paper was not written with simpletons in mind.

But the answer to your disingenuous statement on being "disappointed" over the lack of links to links to sell you Prepper merch is likely available at any conspiracy theorists' web pages. Is Alex Jones still selling stuff?

The answer to your ostensible question of " Can anyone figure out precisely what is predicted based on the abstract of the linked report?" is yes. I can. The paper used various data to predict with 95% certainty that the Atlantic Ocean's currents may collapse before 2095.

If you want to know what that means, you should look it up to better understand it. Wikipedia offers a simple explanation. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_meridional_overturning_circulation

But put simply, if the Atlantic Ocean gets too warm and there is too much fresh water, then the complex circulation of the Atlantic Ocean may slow down to the extent that it reaches a "tipping point" and lots more crazy weather will result.

 

[SchlongConery]

Here is an explanation from Texas A&M University prof's. Deep in oil and gas territory!

Texas A&M Experts Explain Slowing Ocean Currents – Texas A&M Stories

Professors in the College of Arts and Sciences analyze a system of ocean currents that is slowing over time and may cause abnormal weather.

today.tamu.edu

“About 40 percent of the extra carbon dioxide and 90 percent of the heat humans have added to the Earth system by burning fossil fuels has been dissolved in the surface ocean,” Jones said. “But the surface ocean can only take up a limited amount of carbon dioxide and heat. The AMOC moves these surface waters into the deep ocean, allowing more carbon dioxide and heat to be taken up by the ocean, and reducing atmospheric temperature increases. If the AMOC slows down, less carbon dioxide and heat will be taken up by the deep ocean and more will end up in the atmosphere, causing temperatures to be higher at the Earth’s surface.”

 

[Darts]

"Dinosaurs may have helped warm ancient Earth via their own natural gaseous emissions, a new study says. Like modern-day ruminants, giant plant-eating dinosaurs likely had microbes in their guts that gave off large amounts of methane—a potent greenhouse gas even more effective at trapping heat than carbon dioxide." The dinosaur age lasted only 65 million years.
Dinosaurs' Gaseous Emissions Warmed Earth? (nationalgeographic.com)

 

[toguy5252]

"Dinosaurs may have helped warm ancient Earth via their own natural gaseous emissions, a new study says. Like modern-day ruminants, giant plant-eating dinosaurs likely had microbes in their guts that gave off large amounts of methane—a potent greenhouse gas even more effective at trapping heat than carbon dioxide." The dinosaur age lasted only 65 million years.
Dinosaurs' Gaseous Emissions Warmed Earth? (nationalgeographic.com)

Seriously? Seriously? You are going to ignore the human contribution to global warming because millions of yeas ago dinosaur farts may have had some effect? Seriously?

 

[Darts]

who said anything about ignoring humans

Dinosaur Farts May Have Warmed Prehistoric Earth | Live Science

 

[JohnLarue]

Here is an explanation from Texas A&M University prof's. Deep in oil and gas territory!

Texas A&M Experts Explain Slowing Ocean Currents – Texas A&M Stories

Professors in the College of Arts and Sciences analyze a system of ocean currents that is slowing over time and may cause abnormal weather.

today.tamu.edu

“About 40 percent of the extra carbon dioxide and 90 percent of the heat humans have added to the Earth system by burning fossil fuels has been dissolved in the surface ocean,” Jones said. “But the surface ocean can only take up a limited amount of carbon dioxide and heat. The AMOC moves these surface waters into the deep ocean, allowing more carbon dioxide and heat to be taken up by the ocean, and reducing atmospheric temperature increases. If the AMOC slows down, less carbon dioxide and heat will be taken up by the deep ocean and more will end up in the atmosphere, causing temperatures to be higher at the Earth’s surface.”

odd how the climate alarmists were claiming an incremental 120 ppm of CO2 warms the atmosphere by trapping IR radiation in the Atmosphere
and now that theory has craped out the are now claiming 90% of the heat gets 'dissolved in the surface ocean,”
1. heat get absorbed by matter, not dissolved into solution. ?????
2. this is turning into a game of where is my missing anthropogenic heat gone ? I need to find my missing anthropogenic heat in order to sow alarm & panic.
3. they had better make up their minds & try to push one theory or the other, the theoretical heat either heats the atmosphere or 90% gets 'dissolved" into the ocean,

the heat capacity of water is 4 times that of air
so the new theory is an incremental 120 parts per million CO2 absorbs enough incremental IR to warm the atmosphere and 90% of that heat gets transferred to the oceans via an inefficient 1:4 heat exchange , all the while massive amounts of energy are used up as work done creating trade winds, jet streams, evaporation & convection .

????

4. the solubility of CO2 in water is inversely proportional to temp, so if the oceans are naturally warming (we are still emerging from an ice age), then more CO2 is out gassed from the oceans.
5. the volume of CO2 exchanged between the oceans & atmosphere is 50 X anthropogenic Co2

4 & 5 appear to explain a lot of this

odd how there was no change in slope of this graph in the 2008 recession or the 2020 covid lock down when fossil fuel consumption was dramatically reduced
Those events do not even register on that graph
Which should make it very clear, that emission reduction schemes / carbon taxes, COP conferences or socialism etc. are not gong to alter that trajectory
Nature is amazing

 

[SchlongConery]

odd how the climate alarmists were claiming an incremental 120 ppm of CO2 warms the atmosphere by trapping IR radiation in the Atmosphere
and now that theory has craped out the are now claiming 90% of the heat gets 'dissolved in the surface ocean,”
1. heat get absorbed by matter, not dissolved into solution. ?????
2. this is turning into a game of where is my missing anthropogenic heat gone ? I need to find my missing anthropogenic heat in order to sow alarm & panic.
3. they had better make up their minds & try to push one theory or the other, the theoretical heat either heats the atmosphere or 90% gets 'dissolved" into the ocean,

the heat capacity of water is 4 times that of air
so the new theory is an incremental 120 parts per million CO2 absorbs enough incremental IR to warm the atmosphere and 90% of that heat gets transferred to the oceans via an inefficient 1:4 heat exchange , all the while massive amounts of energy are used up as work done creating trade winds, jet streams, evaporation & convection .

????

4. the solubility of CO2 in water is inversely proportional to temp, so if the oceans are naturally warming (we are still emerging from an ice age), then more CO2 is out gassed from the oceans.
5. the volume of CO2 exchanged between the oceans & atmosphere is 50 X anthropogenic Co2

4 & 5 appear to explain a lot of this
View attachment 248513
odd how there was no change in slope of this graph in the 2008 recession or the 2020 covid lock down when fossil fuel consumption was dramatically reduced
Those events do not even register on that graph
Which should make it very clear, that emission reduction schemes / carbon taxes, COP conferences or socialism etc. are not gong to alter that trajectory
Nature is amazing

Thank you for your erudite review of this paper Professor. Have you considered researching and writing a contrary study? Or are you too busy here on TERB?

I do not have the education to even truly assess the methodology of these things so I can't make as meaningful arguements to dismiss the paper.

But if I can assume your point is that human activity has no effect on the climate, I do have enough wisdom to know that is incorrect.

 

[HungSowel]

If the AMOC slows/stops; the UK and Eastern Europe will have colder winters as the AMOC brings warmer water to them, I would guess that our winters should be warmer as less cold water is moved to our eastern shores, and there would be more extreme weather events; tornados, hurricanes, etc... near the equator as there is more heat energy that needs to be dissipated if the AMOC is not there to remove some of the heat.

 

[SchlongConery]

If the AMOC slows/stops; the UK and Eastern Europe will have colder winters as the AMOC brings warmer water to them, I would guess that our winters should be warmer as less cold water is moved to our eastern shores, and there would be more extreme weather events; tornados, hurricanes, etc... near the equator as there is more heat energy that needs to be dissipated if the AMOC is not there to remove some of the heat.

I have no idea of exactly what might happen but I do know that there is not going to be meaningful changes in how, globally, us filthy humans pollute our air, sea and land such that it will slow or reverse the damage already done.

But one thing is for sure, the 'planet' will work itself out and shake the human parasites off it at some point.

George Carlin says it best.

 

[NotADcotor]

But one thing is for sure, the 'planet' will work itself out and shake the human parasites off it at some point.

So the planet is Taylor Swift?

 

[mjg1]

who said anything about ignoring humans

Rush Limbaugh.

 

[JohnLarue]

Thank you for your erudite review of this paper Professor. Have you considered researching and writing a contrary study?

only to have it blocked by climate science peer review

I do not have the education to even truly assess the methodology of these things so I can't make as meaningful arguements to dismiss the paper.

But if I can assume your point is that human activity has no effect on the climate, I do have enough wisdom to know that is incorrect.

[/QUOTE]

who told you to assume what my point is?
it is clear enough with out any assumption

in fact I labelled it as clear

Which should make it very clear, that emission reduction schemes / carbon taxes, COP conferences or socialism etc. are not gong to alter that trajectory

do human affect the environment ?
sure, the real problem is actual pollution in rivers, lakes & oceans.
specifically access to clean drinking water , in addition to overfishing in the oceans
However CO2 is not a pollutant
It is is the basis for all life on the planet and has been around a lot longer than humans or the internal combustion engine ..

but as you say if you do not have the education to assess what your are being told
then what is the basis for your wisdom to know what is incorrect?
An appeal to authority ?
The climate change Propaganda that you have been bombarded with for decades ?

if you find fault with any of the scientific facts , i presented, please by all means, call me out on those facts
but don't say you are not educated enough to understand the material & then turn around and say you have the wisdom to declare me incorrect
wtf ??

instead , just use your wisdom to explain why there is no change in slope either in 2008 or 2020 ?
its simple dy/dx calculus

 

[1kevin]

Ok. What shall we do about it?

 

[toguy5252]

Ok. What shall we do about it?

The first set would be to recognize and aknowledge the problem. If you read this board and the news generally we are not there becasue there is a very vocal minority who ignore the problem and does everything they can to obfuscate including posting stories about dinosaur farts.

 

[JohnLarue]

I have no idea of exactly what might happen but I do know that there is not going to be meaningful changes in how, globally, us filthy humans pollute our air, sea and land such that it will slow or reverse the damage already done.

But one thing is for sure, the 'planet' will work itself out and shake the human parasites off it at some point.

I see

filthy humans, human parasites

so your position is based on your hatred of mankind, rather than any true scientific understanding
that is messed up
you must have a lot of internal turmoil loathing your own species like that

 

[1kevin]

The first set would be to recognize and aknowledge the problem. If you read this board and the news generally we are not there becasue there is a very vocal minority who ignore the problem and does everything they can to obfuscate including posting stories about dinosaur farts.

I did acknowledge the problem, by saying 'Ok'. So, now what?

 

[toguy5252]

I did acknowledge the problem, by saying 'Ok'. So, now what?

I was not referring to you.

 

[Valcazar]

Can anyone figure out precisely what is predicted based on the abstract of the
linked report?
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
In this work, we show that a transition of the AMOC is most likely to occur around 2025-2095 (95% confidence interval).

This will now be reported in a headline somewhere as "Scientist predicts the ocean currents will stop in 2025".