Reverie

Polling has changed….

WyattEarp

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In the past, voting demographics have skewed towards conservatism with age. These results are exactly the opposite.
Doesn't that suggest younger Canadians have more trepidation of four more years of Liberal rule?

One of the things that I see is in the U.S. is that older people don't focus on policy so much and just seem to fall in line with their party pattern. This happens on both sides. Of course, there are a lot of voters at all ages who aren't policy focused and merely react to banner slogans.
 

WyattEarp

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18-34 old get their info from social media, and the conservatives own the propaganda machine right now.
Young people have ten years experience with Liberal policies in practice. There's no boogeyman convincing them that the Liberals are the baddies.
 
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onomatopoeia

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Doesn't that suggest younger Canadians have more trepidation of four more years of Liberal rule?

One of the things that I see is in the U.S. is that older people don't focus on policy so much and just seem to fall in line with their party pattern. This happens on both sides. Of course, there are a lot of voters at all ages who aren't policy focused and merely react to banner slogans.
Most of the Baby Boomers are now either retired, or still working in occupations which don't have mandatory retirement at age 65. They have a collective self interest to want to see government overspending continue for their lifetimes.
 
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onomatopoeia

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Young people have ten years experience with Liberal policies in practice. There's no boogeyman convincing them that the Liberals are the baddies.
Justin Trudeau was elected PM largely because he promised to legalize weed. This won him a lot of votes from both the youngest voters and many of the Boomers.
 
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WyattEarp

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This is what I am finding with a lot of people who were going to vote PC before. They were voting against Trudeau, not for PP. now that Trudeau is out, PP is losing all those votes.
I think their might be a good comparison to be made when Biden dropped out and Harris jumped in the lead in polls. Carney from what I can tell doesn't have much of a political record. He doesn't seem all that good as a politician. Carney does seem smart, but certainly with that technocratic demeanor that might not garner a voter response.

So is it fair to say, Carney is initially benefiting from the Not Trudeau effect. Over the next few months, he will have to develop a platform that differentiates himself from the Trudeau years.
 

WyattEarp

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Most of the Baby Boomers are now either retired, or still working in occupations which don't have mandatory retirement at age 65. They have a collective self interest to want to see government overspending continue for their lifetimes.
I agree. There's also an inherent bias on spending on older generations. It's actually a big social problem. The baby boom generation is the wealthiest in history. While prospects for Generation Z are not as promising.

I think both liberals and conservatives have a hard time addressing this generational wealth dynamic.
 
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RZG

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Justin Trudeau was elected PM largely because he promised to legalize weed. This won him a lot of votes from both the youngest voters and many of the Boomers.
Every Boomer I know, self included, already had " A Guy. " Now the Gen Z`s grandparents order online and get delivery. Whatta` world.
 
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WyattEarp

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Boomers are plugged into legacy media propaganda. And they want to ride the Liberal gravy train until checkout time. Change in direction is bad for them.

Young adults are plugged into reality on the ground.
There's a lot of truth to this. If you're in your 60s and comfortable, you are probably fine with the status quo.

You can also blow out the analysis a bit and make a case that immigration is great for older Canadians. The influx of immigrants keeps wages in check and increases the value of your home that is owned outright. You're not out there competing for jobs and housing.
 

WyattEarp

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I wouldn't say awful. But he is not as polished as Carney. I fear that Canadians are going to be seduced by another good-looking, smooth-talking, privileged male.
Interesting take. I don't think Carney is nearly as handsome as Trudeau but he does have that self-assured, patrician look that might give some confidence. While I don't go for the mocking of politician's appearances like the peanut gallery, Poilievre does not have the patrician look.
 

onomatopoeia

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Every Boomer I know, self included, already had " A Guy. " Now the Gen Z`s grandparents order online and get delivery. Whatta` world.
I've never been inside a weed dispensary, despite the fact that there are five of them within five minutes' walk of where I live. There used to be seven, but cops closed two of them, the ones that said they were owned and operated by Natives, but the owner's name on the police notices scotched taped to the doors' establishments was Viet Namese.

I get my weed from a guy in Scarborough who has been selling since the mid 1970's. He doesn't sell to anyone under 35 years old; many of his long term customers buy for their children.

To the best of my knowledge, dispensaries have a per gram price, regardless of the quantity purchased. I buy enough to last me 1 - 4 years, every one to four years.

Gen Z's seem to be paying a disproportionate amount of their income on streaming services and shipping/ handling. One of the reasons that they'll never be able to afford to retire is that they tend not to own anything that can be resold in the secondary market. Boomers and Gen X people are often collectors of physical objects which they value. If those items are rare, and coveted by others of their ilk, they can be used to obtain cash in a financial pinch. Formerly fashionable clothing, selfies from a trip abroad, or empty Uber food delivery packages have essentially no resale value.
 
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Skoob

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Young people have ten years experience with Liberal policies in practice. There's no boogeyman convincing them that the Liberals are the baddies.
Those young people that were swayed by his young looks and WE Charity rah rah's, are now in their mid-late 20's and have realized that they can't afford anything and they have been sold a lie.

They were indoctrinated into believing Trudeau and the Liberals were the climate warriors leading the world to salvation, only to have the new leader drop the carbon tax that they were conditioned to believe was the conduit for this salvation.
 

onomatopoeia

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Boomers are plugged into legacy media propaganda. And they want to ride the Liberal gravy train until checkout time. Change in direction is bad for them.

Young adults are plugged into reality on the ground.
My metaphorical explanation of why the older Baby Boomers created DEI, employment equity, or whatever you want to call it, for collectively selfish reasons, reprinted from a different board, with minor changes:


The white first wave boomers, (born 1946-1952), saw to it that they, and there own, had enough time to fill the tenured spots in blue and white colour occupations. Then they put out the "white quota filled" signs, to protect their positions from guys like them who were younger and just as good, if not better.

Imagine that a hurdles race beginning around 1975 is run in a single lane with starting positions determined by age, and the race covers several laps of the track.

There weren't too many guys in the 'born before 1920' group, and they weren't necessarily the best; we lost many of the best in World War II, and retained all of the ones who were deemed unfit for combat, and the ones lucky enough to come home in one piece. Most of them are the first wave Boomers' parents.

In the first lap, the hurdles weren't very high. A guy with a strong back or some skill with a pencil, or one dexterous at shuffling paper, had only to show up on time, to get and keep a relatively good job, that paid a good wage, relative to the cost of buying things. He knew a good thing when he saw it, so he stayed at the same job for his whole working career, and spent his money on kids.

After the first lap, many of the older guys started to drop out of the race, because they were winded, or couldn't keep up to a faster pace. Their employers often offered incentives to retire early, so that younger people with stronger backs and less obsolete knowledge could replace them.

Once the first wave boomers took the lead midway through lap three, they started to raise the height of the hurdles they had already passed, but they also created a second lane with lower hurdles, only for the use of those who were unlike them in appearance.

Not surprisingly, the gap between the first wave boomers and the ones trailing them in the high hurdle lane started to increase, but many of the guys trailing them in the high hurdle lane were able to keep pace with the low hurdle lane; they just lost ground to the group who changed the rules in mid race, for personal advantage. The Boomers made it look like they believed those who joined the competition in progress ought to have an equal chance to lead, but only after the first wave had already completed their laps, with themselves in the lead.
 
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WyattEarp

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The Liberals are leading in Quebec. Some Bloc voters are voting Liberal to not have Poilievre in power.

Isn't Quebec somewhat of a drain on the rest of Canada?

They probably think they have a better deal with the Liberals. The long game for Quebec which most voters don't see is get those Western provinces humming along so they can pay the bills. A stagnating economy doesn't help anyone other than the ideologically self-absorbed.
 

WyattEarp

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Also, Canadians in their mid-50s and up are worried about the Conservatives raising the retirement age to 67 or 70, they don't trust the Conservatives with the Canadian Pension Plan.
Isn't this kind of a superficial take?

Isn't the unanswered question here how are you going to fund the CPP?

PS- The retirement age is going up. It's just a matter of when.
 
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onomatopoeia

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I think we're past the point where most people decide whom they want to vote for based on pre election poll results.

62.3% of those eligible voted in the 2021 Federal Election. 20% of eligible voters cast ballots in favour of the Liberal party. The 'Don't Give a Shit about Politics' party comprised 37.7% of the voter's pool.
 
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WyattEarp

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JT won elections by securing the female vote. They are not buying PP's family man ads.

No one has a problem with families least of all women who have maternal instincts that kick-in and increase with age.

Women lean liberal because they have stronger societal identification with liberal politics. Greta Thunberg came to mind. Right or wrong, more women identify with Miss Thunberg than men.
 
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