NFL 2024 regular season

[Anbarandy]

Montana always had Jerry Rice in SF. He was relatively ineffective in KC without Rice. And Brady almost always had his safety valve Gronkowski, even in Tampa

No, he didn't!

He didn't have him for two of his SB seasons and wins, '81 and '84 seasons. He had no names in '81 and no star receivers in '84.

Brady had no names in 2001, and no names 2003 and 2004.

 

[Anbarandy]

After a poor start the Baltimore Ravens are on fire. Watch out KC.

Their defense has been a sieve thus far.

Certainly unlike recent Baltimore Ds.

The Steelers are scary good because of their D.

I have hated the Steelers guts since the early '70s, but that organization and that current coach Tomlin always managed to obtain and maintain the staunchest Ds for decades.

This group is lights out.

 

[princekwekua]

No, he didn't!

He didn't have him for two of his SB seasons and wins, '81 and '84 seasons. He had no names in '81 and no star receivers in '84.

Brady had no names in 2001, and no names 2003 and 2004.

You are right. Montana didnt have Jerry Rice in 1981 and 1984. But he had "no-name" Dwight Clark both of those years. Perhaps you remember the catch.

Brady had Troy Brown in 2001, Deion Branch and Troy Brown in 2003 and 2004. Those were not "no names"

 

[princekwekua]

The real difference is that the Chiefs defense is top tier which allows Mahomes to be placed in a situation to make the plays when it matters most despite not making enough of them throughout the game as he has in the past.

Mahomes has more interceptions and less TDs than Bo Nix. It will catch up with him. Eventually

 

[Anbarandy]

You are right. Montana didnt have Jerry Rice in 1981 and 1984. But he had "no-name" Dwight Clark both of those years. Perhaps you remember the catch.

Brady had Troy Brown in 2001, Deion Branch and Troy Brown in 2003 and 2004. Those were not "no names"

Please.

You are trying to recast Clark, Brown and Branch as somehow elite receivers?

David Tyree had arguably the most famous catch of all, the 'helmet catch'. Perhaps you remember that catch?

Employing your Clark, Branch and Brown logic, that must mean that you would argue that Eli had that elite, star receiver Tyree!

 

[princekwekua]

Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley are paid a third of what Justin Jefferson receives. Rip offs

 

[princekwekua]

Please.

You are trying to recast Clark, Brown and Branch as somehow elite receivers?

David Tyree had arguably the most famous catch of all, the 'helmet catch'. Perhaps you remember that catch?

Employing your Clark, Branch and Brown logic, that must mean that you would argue that Eli had that elite, star receiver Tyree!

Dwight Clark played 9 seasons for the 49ers. He had 506 catches for 6,750 yards and scored 48 touchdowns. He won 2 championships. This is your idea of a "no-name?" David Tyree was a flash in the pan.

Branch and Brown were great route runners who managed to be open more often than not. They were not flashy but they were not "no-names." Bill Belichick did not keep non performers around for such long tenures.

 

[Anbarandy]

Dwight Clark played 9 seasons for the 49ers. He had 506 catches for 6,750 yards and scored 48 touchdowns. He won 2 championships. This is your idea of a "no-name?" David Tyree was a flash in the pan.

Branch and Brown were great route runners who managed to be open more often than not. They were not flashy but they were not "no-names." Bill Belichick did not keep non performers around for such long tenures.

Please, you're attempting to equate Clark, Branch and Brown with Rice and Gronk?

No one's buying it, stop trying to peddle the unsellable.

This kerfuffle started with the crowning of Purdy as the new GOAT after just 6 games under his belt.

6 games with an elite team filled with many elite playmakers.

Now that his elite playmakers are hurt and he is without them his premature crowning as the new GOAT looks fuckin foolish.

Stop trying to deflect and defend.

You were probably going to crown Baker Mayfield as the new-new GOAT considering how he has started this season, BUT after losing Godwin and Evans to long term injuries, he will befall the same fate as Purdy has this year which leads to this one long held, tried and tested truism of professional football:

No matter what the football hype machine attempts to make you believe, what it comes down to is that football is a team game, a total team games, the ultimate team game. Always was, is and will be.

 

[Insidious Von]

Deshaun Watson has a ruptured Achilles tendon, he's gone for the rest of the season. It could be a blessing in disguise, no football team has fucked themselves over worse than the Cleveland Violets.

With all due respect to the Estate of Jesse Owens, and now for my next trick, Derrick Henry.

 

[dirtydaveiii]

Deshaun Watson has a ruptured Achilles tendon, he's gone for the rest of the season. It could be a blessing in disguise, no football team has fucked themselves over worse than the Cleveland Violets.

With all due respect to the Estate of Jesse Owens, and now for my next trick, Derrick Henry.

I would say the Jets hold the title now for fucking themselves over fawning over a useless QB

 

[dirtydaveiii]

Trent Dilfer won a superbowl in 2000 so there is that factor. Most receivers are wildly overrated. There are only a couple of 'magical' guys in the league but even they wont perform if the ball doesnt get thrown to them. When Brady started he was a Trent Dilfer. He did what Bill told him to and they were successful. Later on in his career he became a super elite QB, but never would have made it there if he wasnt on the right team with the right players

 

[princekwekua]

Please, you're attempting to equate Clark, Branch and Brown with Rice and Gronk?

No one's buying it, stop trying to peddle the unsellable.

This kerfuffle started with the crowning of Purdy as the new GOAT after just 6 games under his belt.

6 games with an elite team filled with many elite playmakers.

Now that his elite playmakers are hurt and he is without them his premature crowning as the new GOAT looks fuckin foolish.

Stop trying to deflect and defend.

You were probably going to crown Baker Mayfield as the new-new GOAT considering how he has started this season, BUT after losing Godwin and Evans to long term injuries, he will befall the same fate as Purdy has this year which leads to this one long held, tried and tested truism of professional football:

No matter what the football hype machine attempts to make you believe, what it comes down to is that football is a team game, a total team games, the ultimate team game. Always was, is and will be.

Deion Branch was the SB 2004 MVP. But he was a non-entity. So congratulations

 

[princekwekua]

Trent Dilfer won a superbowl in 2000 so there is that factor. Most receivers are wildly overrated. There are only a couple of 'magical' guys in the league but even they wont perform if the ball doesnt get thrown to them. When Brady started he was a Trent Dilfer. He did what Bill told him to and they were successful. Later on in his career he became a super elite QB, but never would have made it there if he wasnt on the right team with the right players

BTW, the year Tom Brady had Randy Moss, he was bested by Eli Manning and his bunch of no names

 

[Anbarandy]

BTW, the year Tom Brady had Randy Moss, he was bested by Eli Manning and his bunch of no names

The 2007 Patriots. 18-0 going into the SB. Greatest offense, greatest team and greatest single season by a QB in NFL history facing a wild card team. Monster double digit point spread.

The difference?

The Giants D, rushed, hurried, knocked down, sacked and fracked Brady like no team that season.

The Patriots averaging something like 35 points or so a game were:

HELD TO 14 POINTS, not by Eli, his receivers or the Giants offence but by THE GIANTS DEFENCE which was by the far the ultimate factor in the greatest upset in NFL history.

You fawn over the NFL hype machine way too muchest.

Today's hype flavor is your flavor, yesterdays was also yours before it was superseded by todays and tomorrows will always be yours too because the NFL hype machine says so.

 

[K Douglas]

Yeah. Our pool is ATS.

Keep in mind that all the factors you've mentioned have been taken into account by Vegas. And probably 100 more. How can we possibly think that we know which factor(s) the oddsmakers over or under valued. We're kidding ourselves if we think that we rationalize that "the coach got fired" so I'm betting against them. Or whatever. We can't "outfigure" the pros.

Vegas knows this and factored it in.
Vegas knows this and factored it in.
Vegas knows this and factored it in.
I haven't seen the spreads yet, but if that's case, most likely.
Vegas knows this and factored it in.

Things like injuries during a game are unpredictable and are like a wild card that totally changes a game.

I went through a 20 something year period where I looked at about 20 parameters and applied them to every game and every week, like home vs. away, AFC/NFC, Home dogs etc. Every parameter was close to 50% either way. The biggest difference I found was that when the spread was between 7 and 10 the dog covered about 52.5% of the time. So the diff between taking dog vs. fave was about 5%. Surprisingly, when the spread was more than 10, the dog covered at a lower %age. So, it doesn't matter who the teams are, what their record is, who is injured etc., etc., it only mattered how far off Vegas was from 50/50. The more they missed by on a particular parameter, would be my main consideration as to whom I'd bet on. I was evaluating the performance of Vegas, not the teams.

If you're betting real money with a bookie, you're still probably going to lose because the 10% juice is more than any parameter I looked at. But if you're betting in a pool where there is no juice, it may give you a slight advantage.

Listen, KD, I know you are very knowledgeable and have done quite well, but if anybody thinks that they know more than Vegas and which factors are more important is deluding themselves. IMO.

I never said that I think I know more than Vegas. Which is why I don't bet the farm I do this recreationally with fuck around money. Its entertainment.
But Vegas is never perfect they do get things wrong from time to time. And from time to time to mitigate their losses in these scenarios they just pay off the league to manipulate the outcome.
Interesting stat on the +7 dog covering 52.5% of the time. Over how many seasons did that stat apply? This year so far the +7 or more dogs have covered 8/13 with 1 push. In 7 of those 8 covers they have won outright.

 

[dirtydaveiii]

I never said that I think I know more than Vegas. Which is why I don't bet the farm I do this recreationally with fuck around money. Its entertainment.
But Vegas is never perfect they do get things wrong from time to time. And from time to time to mitigate their losses in these scenarios they just pay off the league to manipulate the outcome.
Interesting stat on the +7 dog covering 52.5% of the time. Over how many seasons did that stat apply? This year so far the +7 or more dogs have covered 8/13 with 1 push. In 7 of those 8 covers they have won outright.

you obviously dont know how betting works - its not like its the house against you like the casino. They put in betting lines to get more action, not what they think will actually happen

 

[shack]

I never said that I think I know more than Vegas.

I know you didn't explicitly say that. However, when somebody lists factors of why they like a certain team, they are implying that Vegas didn't consider that factor enough. Hence the implication is that they know more than Vegas. And also keep in mind that Vegas considers more factors that we didn't even know existed and probably has actuaries and algorithms. This not just you but any other bettor, and all the "experts" on TV, radio, blogs, newspapers etc. etc. Nobody can top Vegas, nobody. I'm sure that they do make mistakes but to try and pick them out prior to Sunday is a damn tough task.

Which is why I don't bet the farm I do this recreationally with fuck around money. Its entertainment.

That's part of my point. Vegas doesn't fuck around. They can't afford to make mistakes. There's too much money and careers and livelihoods at a stake. IMO, the only way somebody can get a leg up on Vegas is if somebody has some very significant inside info that even Vegas doesn't know about. It has to be a family member or a very close friend of a player who has leaked some info to them.

Interesting stat on the +7 dog covering 52.5% of the time. Over how many seasons did that stat apply? This year so far the +7 or more dogs have covered 8/13 with 1 push. In 7 of those 8 covers they have won outright.

I did this for over 20 years but stopped at least 10 years ago, so the numbers I've quoted may be off a bit and I added parameters to look at along the way so some are a smaller sample size.

However, I still have my notebook at the bottom of a drawer somewhere. I shall retrieve it at some point and give you all the results I came up with.

 

[princekwekua]

Two QBs have a chance to redeem themselves. Andy Dalton of the Panthers is sidelined by a car accident so Bryce Young will be the starter. And with Deshaun Watson out for the season, the talented but erratic Jameis Winston has been named the starter for the Browns. Marcus Mariota did well replacing Jayden Daniels. Let's see if the maligned Young and Winston will seize the opportunity

 

[tml]

Two QBs have a chance to redeem themselves. Andy Dalton of the Panthers is sidelined by a car accident so Bryce Young will be the starter. And with Deshaun Watson out for the season, the talented but erratic Jameis Winston has been named the starter for the Browns. Marcus Mariota did well replacing Jayden Daniels. Let's see if the maligned Young and Winston will seize the opportunity

Interesting. When Watson got hurt they brought in the other QB. Winston was actually the 3rs string QB.

 

[princekwekua]

Interesting. When Watson got hurt they brought in the other QB. Winston was actually the 3rs string QB.

Yeah, you are right. I was surprised by that. But now he has been named the starter