Yeah. Our pool is ATS.
Keep in mind that all the factors you've mentioned have been taken into account by Vegas. And probably 100 more. How can we possibly think that we know which factor(s) the oddsmakers over or under valued. We're kidding ourselves if we think that we rationalize that "the coach got fired" so I'm betting against them. Or whatever. We can't "outfigure" the pros.
Vegas knows this and factored it in.
Vegas knows this and factored it in.
Vegas knows this and factored it in.
I haven't seen the spreads yet, but if that's case, most likely.
Vegas knows this and factored it in.
Things like injuries during a game are unpredictable and are like a wild card that totally changes a game.
I went through a 20 something year period where I looked at about 20 parameters and applied them to every game and every week, like home vs. away, AFC/NFC, Home dogs etc. Every parameter was close to 50% either way. The biggest difference I found was that when the spread was between 7 and 10 the dog covered about 52.5% of the time. So the diff between taking dog vs. fave was about 5%. Surprisingly, when the spread was more than 10, the dog covered at a lower %age. So, it doesn't matter who the teams are, what their record is, who is injured etc., etc., it only mattered how far off Vegas was from 50/50. The more they missed by on a particular parameter, would be my main consideration as to whom I'd bet on. I was evaluating the performance of Vegas, not the teams.
If you're betting real money with a bookie, you're still probably going to lose because the 10% juice is more than any parameter I looked at. But if you're betting in a pool where there is no juice, it may give you a slight advantage.
Listen, KD, I know you are very knowledgeable and have done quite well, but if anybody thinks that they know more than Vegas and which factors are more important is deluding themselves. IMO.
