I don't think it will be that easy for Trump to win. If we have an economic soft-landing, Biden will be tough to beat.
Trump's strategy that he will not be able adjust boxes him into winning a few contested states by slim margins. He's not all that popular with suburban women and that's a big problem. Those are the numbers.
Well, that's how US politics works.
Trump's problem in 2020 was that the novelty factor he rode in on in 2016 had evaporated by 2020. In 2016, he was a "brilliant outsider businessman who was going to use NYC savvy to re write the rules in DC."
In 2020, he was just a fat, senile, lowbrow slob who danced to "Macho Man" in front of audiences who appeared to be drawn from every trailer park in the rural USA. Now that didn't lose him the red states, because those folks would vote for an orangutan if it ran on the GOP ticket. But the swing states had had enough.
In 2024, he's a fat, senile, lowbrow slob who's been indicted numerous times and lost a civil rape trial and tried to start an insurrection when he lost in 2020. That's not tough to beat in the swing states at all. So unless the economy implodes badly, it's hard to see how Biden will not win again.
And it Biden has a coronary or a stroke, that's an excuse to parachute Newsom in and win by an even larger margin.