Gas-Powered Cars Will Vanish in 8 Years, Big Oil Will Collapse: Stanford Study

[SkyRider]

This will be one of those sea changes.

The car replaced the horse.

The P.C. replaced bookkeepers

ATM's replaced tellers

Digital cameras replaced photo printers

 

[oil&gas]

None of those inventions were first marketed as toys
for the elites. Without subsidies (at the cost of taxpayers)
only the filthy rich would want to own an electric vehicle
as a trophy.

 

[t.o.leafs.fan]

It is true...no matter how much people focus on the negatives and the road blocks and post those negatives on internet message boards, EV's are coming and sooner than you think.

 

[Aardvark154]

It depends upon what one means by gas and diesel powered. Hybrid vehicles are going to continue into the foreseeable future.

However, France announced just today that it intends to ban the sale of straight gasoline and diesel powered automobiles in 2040.

 

[oil&gas]

I too think having sales of automobiles running on gasoline
and diesel engines in the near future have merit. Crude oil
is such a precious resource we better start phasing it out
as a transportation fuel before it is depleted. There are
no low-cost alternatives to production of hydrocarbons by
petroleum refinery processes yet. It is prudent to switch
from diesel to natural gas and leave the remaining oil for
manufacturing of chemicals.

 

[fuji]

Maybe some nice Silicon Valley businesses. But do you think this? Most employees don't get Free parking unless it's outdoor and in the suburbs. So do you think all those private and public parking areas in the core are going to but in charging stations, the electrical infrastructure to service them, the liability insurance(yes that will be needed) and pay for the hydro?

Most people out there aren't getting raises. And you think they will spend on this?


Seriously you are living in a bubble if you think that is a viable option.

Go ahead. Ask every service employees you know. Every lower level worker(you know, the Majority of the population), every small business owner, every parking lot owner, every factory owner, every highrise property manager.......

Ask them if they will spend the 6,000 per for base installation(look it up) in a parking garage. Let alone outdoor usage.

And then eat the cost of charging for life.

I think charging connections will become STANDARD in parking lots. And some people will get that free as a frill, just like some people get gym memberships and other perks, while other people will pay for it when they check out of the lot.

Here's the thing -- it's insanely convenient -- never having to go to the gas station, because your car "fills up" while it's parked at home or work. Even if you do end up paying the bill, it's a huge savings of your time. And THAT's what's going to sell people. Plus, when a car runs on electric, it's totally quiet. And it accelerates faster than a gas car. All these things are going to appeal to people.

Now my friend has an e-tron which means it's a hybrid, so he can go drive that cross-country if he wants, and fill up at gas stations. But most of the time, he never has to use gas at all. Going to and from work, getting groceries, and usual errands -- all that fits into what he can get out of charging up at work. And yeah, he's getting the power free for now and maybe that won't last -- but he NEVER goes to the gas station, unless he takes a weekend road trip or something.

I think that's going to catch on with a lot of people.

 

[MattRoxx]

So at 346 kms on a charge (and that's best case scenario), for a trip from Toronto to Montreal, you'd have to leave fully charged, charge half way there, then charge again once you arrive. How convenient for a $35-40K car!

And how does one charge an electric vehicle if you only have street parking?

That's a hell of a daily commute. I thought I had a long drive @ 30 km each way.
And charging was already :deadhorse: a few pages back.

Anybody know what the average battery warranty on electric cars is ?

For Teslas it's 8 years. Kia is 10 years. BMW, 15 years.

 

[GameBoy27]

That's a hell of a daily commute. I thought I had a long drive @ 30 km each way.
And charging was already :deadhorse: a few pages back.

I was talking about using a EVs (not hybrids) for long trips. Daily commutes where you're able to charge at home and work, makes sense. But not if you occasionally or regularly take 300-400 km trips.

Please explain how people with street parking, which often doesn't allow them to park near their house or even on the same side of the street, supposed to charge their vehicles. And how long before apartment buildings and condos have available outlets available? Maybe years down the road, but not practical for the masses. Again, look at the current sales figures for 100% EVs in Canada.

For Teslas it's 8 years. Kia is 10 years. BMW, 15 years.

Warranties are funny things with pages of fine print. At what point do they "replace" your battery? When the distance on a full charge drops to 75%? 50%? 10? Or does it have to stop working completely?

We all know battery life can decrease significantly over time. The same thing doesn't happen with gasoline engines.

 

[Butler1000]

I think charging connections will become STANDARD in parking lots. And some people will get that free as a frill, just like some people get gym memberships and other perks, while other people will pay for it when they check out of the lot.

Here's the thing -- it's insanely convenient -- never having to go to the gas station, because your car "fills up" while it's parked at home or work. Even if you do end up paying the bill, it's a huge savings of your time. And THAT's what's going to sell people. Plus, when a car runs on electric, it's totally quiet. And it accelerates faster than a gas car. All these things are going to appeal to people.

Now my friend has an e-tron which means it's a hybrid, so he can go drive that cross-country if he wants, and fill up at gas stations. But most of the time, he never has to use gas at all. Going to and from work, getting groceries, and usual errands -- all that fits into what he can get out of charging up at work. And yeah, he's getting the power free for now and maybe that won't last -- but he NEVER goes to the gas station, unless he takes a weekend road trip or something.

I think that's going to catch on with a lot of people.

With people who are in nice houses that have a place for a charging station.

But as has been said. No parking? On street parking? Apartment buildings? Condo's? Apartments above stores? Basement apartments? Installation is anywhere from up to 9 thousand per station I've seen with installation costs. Then there is upkeep. And how well do they work in cold weather.

And that's just in Toronto. Try to install in NY city? San Francisco? Chicago? New Orleans?

How about all those narrow streets in many European cities? And having to dig up like crazy to install things.

It's a nice idea for people who make a good double income and are single home owners with a garage. Beyond that we can talk again in say 20 years.

 

[fuji]

With people who are in nice houses that have a place for a charging station.

You don't need a charging station, though they certainly charge up faster. You really just need a regular 120v outlet. Particularly if it's your home and the car is likely to sit there charging for eight to twelve hours.

But as has been said. No parking? On street parking? Apartment buildings? Condo's? Apartments above stores? Basement apartments? Installation is anywhere from up to 9 thousand per station I've seen with installation costs.

It's going to happen faster than you think. Those installations are going to get mass produced and become cheap and more and more people are going to demand them. First you see regular 120v outlets present (which is what my friend uses to charge his Audi at work). Fast charging will come later but it will come.

As close to 100% of cars become at least hybrids you will see the parking spots overhauled. It'll become a competitive advantage for paid parking lots: they'll start advertising that they have plugs to attract business.

Street parking will be the last to go that way but we'll eventually be there since metering it will be a revenue stream for the city.

 

[GPIDEAL]

Maybe some nice Silicon Valley businesses. But do you think this? Most employees don't get Free parking unless it's outdoor and in the suburbs. So do you think all those private and public parking areas in the core are going to but in charging stations, the electrical infrastructure to service them, the liability insurance(yes that will be needed) and pay for the hydro?

Most people out there aren't getting raises. And you think they will spend on this?


Seriously you are living in a bubble if you think that is a viable option.

Go ahead. Ask every service employees you know. Every lower level worker(you know, the Majority of the population), every small business owner, every parking lot owner, every factory owner, every highrise property manager.......

Ask them if they will spend the 6,000 per for base installation(look it up) in a parking garage. Let alone outdoor usage.

And then eat the cost of charging for life.

I agree with you and GB. It's a toy for the rich. (My workplace neighbour is a waste management company and they have a charging station for a guy who drives a Tesla).

 

[GPIDEAL]

It is true...no matter how much people focus on the negatives and the road blocks and post those negatives on internet message boards, EV's are coming and sooner than you think.

True too. The rich are TOFTTing right now. Hopefully prices will come down and charging stations deployed.

 

[GPIDEAL]

This will be one of those sea changes.

The car replaced the horse.

The P.C. replaced bookkeepers

ATM's replaced tellers

Digital cameras replaced photo printers

Not really. Bookkeepers use the P.C. to improve productivity and accuracy. Lay persons can still fuck up the books with computers. Trust me.

 

[oil&gas]

True too. The rich are TOFTTing right now. Hopefully prices will come down and charging stations deployed.

I suspect most of those rich owners are producing more
carbon dioxide than us ordinary folks from driving their
backup gas guzzlers. And don't forget they are TOFTTing
at the expense of taxpayers through government subsidies
of the purchase of their trophies.

 

[Ceiling Cat]

France wants to have 100% electric cars by 2040, I suspect not even half the cars in France will be all electric by that time.

 

[GPIDEAL]

I suspect most of those rich owners are producing more
carbon dioxide than us ordinary folks from driving their
backup gas guzzlers. And don't forget they are TOFTTing
at the expense of taxpayers through government subsidies
of the purchase of their trophies.

True too.

 

[K Douglas]

I say by 2025 there will be at least 15% more gas powered vehicles on our roads than there is today. Anyone want to take that bet I'll even give odds.

 

[oil&gas]

There has to be at least an equal number of SUVs added to
the road to match the number of EVs sold. EV drivers would
need a gas guzzler when driving doesn't serve the purpose
of flaunting their environment-friendly toy as well as for long range driving.

 

[MattRoxx]

I was talking about using a EVs (not hybrids) for long trips. Daily commutes where you're able to charge at home and work, makes sense. But not if you occasionally or regularly take 300-400 km trips.

Please explain how people with street parking, which often doesn't allow them to park near their house or even on the same side of the street, supposed to charge their vehicles. And how long before apartment buildings and condos have available outlets available? Maybe years down the road, but not practical for the masses. Again, look at the current sales figures for 100% EVs in Canada.



Warranties are funny things with pages of fine print. At what point do they "replace" your battery? When the distance on a full charge drops to 75%? 50%? 10? Or does it have to stop working completely?

We all know battery life can decrease significantly over time. The same thing doesn't happen with gasoline engines.

Your ICE car has a battery. Everything around you is running on electricity. Everything around you that moves has an electric motor. It's not some secret arcane science fiction energy form that is and always wilt be inaccessible.

I don't understand the loyalty or addiction to gasoline. Electric car is quieter, has significantly fewer moving parts, no engine, no transmission (gears), no exhaust. The price will come down as production ramps up and there will be incremental improvements.

This was posted earlier
https://www.topgear.com/videos/top-gear-tv/tgtv-s23-rory-reid-tesla-model-x

 

[FAST]

Watch Top Gear as Rory in his Tesla Model X destroys a Dodge Challenger Hellcat. Absolutely destroys it.

https://www.topgear.com/videos/top-gear-tv/tgtv-s23-rory-reid-tesla-model-x

Fun stuff starts about 4:40.

Problem is,...that can only happen once for the Tesla,...it blew its load making that run.