Cy Young and MVP Choices

[shack]

Here's another argument I'd like to start... who believes there is such a thing as "clutch hitting", and who does not?

Good question.

To say somebody is a clutch hitter implies that he succeeds more because he does something extra like raising his intensity or focussing more in a pressure situation. I don't think that's the case most of the time. I think most hitters will try their hardest most of the time regardless of the situation. They're constantly trying to keep up or improve their stats. Contracts to be negotiated.

If some are succeeding more in those situations than others it may be due to them handling the pressure better and not wilting as the non-clutch hitters do. That is, they're just not doing worse in a pressure situation, not necessarily doing better than they normally do.

 

[Ranger68]

Ranger68 this ones for you...I am not sure if you we're being mildly sarcastic when saying win-loss determines the quality of a pitcher...

Dude, I was being sarcastic. Win-Loss is about as useful in determining the quality of a pitcher as how many homeruns the shortstop hits.
Okay, I exaggerate. ..... A bit.
But, you're bang on.

 

[Ranger68]

Earl Weaver played moneyball before it was called moneyball. He liked players who could get on base, and who had power. He also valued outs, eschewing the sacrifice bunt and the steal.

I don't have much to add to the argument against anyone who says OBP is a worthless stat. Yes, someone has to drive those guys in, but no other stat correlates as well to runs scored as OBP. I guarantee you that if a team's leadoff hitter has an OBP of .390 or higher, someone else on that team is driving in 100 runs.

Here's another argument I'd like to start... who believes there is such a thing as "clutch hitting", and who does not?

One of the most illuminating Earl Weaver quotes is that the most precious thing to an offense is its 27 outs. That is, the best thing you can do at the plate is *not get out*. This is what OBP measures.

As for clutch hitting, Bill James (as usual) said it best - it has become a bullshit dump.
I'm sure there are guys who have played better in the clutch, and those who have not. But, to use these numbers to predict future "clutch" success seems to me to be a bunch of crap.
It's certainly debatable, in any case .......

 

[homonger]

I know that the sabermetricians all have analyzed clutch hitting, and have concluded it does not exist. I am not familiar with the particulars of the analysis, but my guess is they found that hitting well with runners in scoring position or with 2 outs does not correlate from year to year, thereby nullifying the possibility that clutch hitting ability is some kind of innate trait.

That said, as a fan, there are still certain hitters I'd rather have up at certain times and certain hitters I would rather not have up at certain times. All things being equal, I'd rather have a good hitter up during a clutch situation, which is really the most you can ask for.

 

[Ranger68]

homonger, I hear ya loud and clear.
Of course, I'd always pick the *best* hitter, rather than the guy who people have attributed clutch success to.
Hey, I might not have wanted Joe Carter up in October of 1993, but it's hard to argue with the results.

 

[Ranger68]

So, now apparently, managers aren't pitching to Bonds, not to do with anything game-related, but NOT TO BE EMBARRASSED!:
.......
'"I'm going to be honest with you, I don't want him to do anything at home," said Pedrique, whose last-place club dropped to 56 games under .500. "I'm sorry for the fans, I'm sorry for baseball, but that's the way it is.

"In this game, you've got to have a lot of pride. And the way our year has been going for us, I think that's the last thing that we need. You know, that distraction. I don't want Barry to do it against the Diamondbacks."

The strangest of Bonds' three walks was an intentional ball four from rookie Brian Bruney with one out and none on in the seventh and the Giants leading 5-0. Two of the walks, however, contributed to rallies totaling five runs, not to mention giving Bonds a major league season record of 201.

Arizona fans booed their own team into the dugout at the end of the seventh inning while Bonds remained stuck at 698 career home runs, with one more game to reach the milestone against his former Pittsburgh teammate Pedrique in the series finale today. Bonds is expected to play.
.....
I would say this shows remarkable good sense on the part of the Diamondbacks fans, who are being robbed of good baseball because their manager's an ass.

Maybe the rule needs to be amended - the batter can choose not to take an intentional walk and the balls count is zeroed, but strikes are retained. That is, if the count is 2-1 and the defense decides to intentionally walk Bonds, he could decline and the count would be reset to 0-1. If the defense still chooses to walk him, he goes to second.

I think the rule is being perverted by guys who couldn't give a rat's ass about what's good for the game.

 

[homonger]

201 walks! That's unbelievable. I've never understood the whole mentality behind walking Bonds intentionally in situations which do not warrant such a move. The intentional walk is a useful piece of baseball strategy--to set up a double play, to get to the batter you want to face, and so on. But to walk a guy who is leading off an inning or when there is no one on base, that's just nuts, and you are just asking for trouble.

I seem to recall Bill James doing an analysis on what if opposing teams walked Bonds every time as opposed to pitching to him. It showed that the Giants would wind up scoring like 1000 runs in the season because he was on base so much.

 

[Ranger68]

Yep.
Anyway, they weren't even walking him as a piece of strategy - it's not like they thought it was a good idea tactically - THEY WERE DOING IT SO HE WOULDN'T EMBARRASS THEM!
Sad. Really, really sad. ....

 

[bigdik]

[I don't have much to add to the argument against anyone who says OBP is a worthless stat. Yes, someone has to drive those guys in, but no other stat correlates as well to runs scored as OBP. I guarantee you that if a team's leadoff hitter has an OBP of .390 or higher, someone else on that team is driving in 100 runs.

Ichiro - OBP - .412
Boone - RBI - 74

Riiiiiight!

Stats are for losers, and this year no team are bigger losers than MVP (sic) Ichiros Mariners!

 

[bigdik]

MOST VALUABLE PLAYER!!!!!!!!!!!
For farks sake, read those three words!!!!!!!!
If you Can?

 

[bigdik]

MVP`-`Vladimir Guerrero, whether the Angels make it or not. He has carried a banged up team to an 81 - 61 record. No other player has contributed as much to his teams success. Vlad Guerrero is the Most VALUABLE Player.

 

[Fingers]

I give up. If Beltre wins it, you have to eat your words.

Don't worry Beltre has no chance. Despite career numbers Bonds will win it hands down!!!

Beltre actually has over 150 more at bats than Bonds and still Bonds is the only guy in baseball that can change a managers game plan on his own!

Fingers

 

[homonger]

[Ichiro - OBP - .412
Boone - RBI - 74

Riiiiiight!

Stats are for losers, and this year no team are bigger losers than MVP (sic) Ichiros Mariners!

Well, so much for the guarantee. However, I would argue this revelation is more indicative of how bad the Mariners are than an indictment of OBP as a valuable stat.

As for your statement that stats are for losers, fine, I am not going to try to convince you otherwise. After all, for all the talk about stats and Billy Beane's moneyball, the A's have yet to win a World Series in recent history. Personally, if I were a GM, and I had the choice between the A's penny pinching moneyball, and the Yankees spend whatever it costs approach, I'd rather be the GM for the Yankees.

 

[the_big_E]

homonger is correct. Other than Ichiro, the Mariners are awful. I dont think they have one regular hitting over .300

 

[Peace4u]

Pujois or Rolen have to beat out Bonds.Doesnt have enough hits.

 

[the_big_E]

I can see you havent been following the thread. It doesnt matter if Bonds has enough hits, look at his other numbers:

Stats through Sept 12th:

Rolen:
H/AB 154/482, 33 HR, 121 RBI, 107 R, .320

Pujols:
H/AB 173/526, 43 HR, 110 RBI, 120 R, .329

Bonds:
H/AB 124/331, 41 HR, 94 RBI, 115 R, .375

Beltre:
H/AB 180/530, 45 HR, 106 RBI, 96 R, .340

Already you can see Bonds is a much better choice than Pujols/Rolen. And I didnt even post OBP/Slug where Bonds is putting up huuge numbers. I only threw in Beltre because thats who I think I should win it. I dont need to rehash all the crap I said about this...

And I have to make one disagreement about Vladdy, it hasnt been all him. Jose Guillen has also been a beast, and he's been playing hurt. the Guerrero/Guillen combo is equivalent to the Manny/Ortiz combo.

Guerrero:
.327, 30 HR, 110 RBI, 106 R

Guillen:
.304, 26 HR, 102 RBI, 82 R

I am not debating that Guillen is better by any stretch of the imagination, but he's been a huge part of that Angels team is all I'm really trying to say!

 

[Ranger68]

Stats are for losers, and this year no team are bigger losers than MVP (sic) Ichiros Mariners!

No. Brains like yours are for losers.
Buy. (sic)

 

[Ranger68]

MOST VALUABLE PLAYER!!!!!!!!!!!
For farks sake, read those three words!!!!!!!!
If you Can?

Uh, yeah - why don't you tell me what the definition of those three words is, if you can.

Fucknuts. Go away.

 

[Ranger68]

MVP`-`Vladimir Guerrero, whether the Angels make it or not. He has carried a banged up team to an 81 - 61 record. No other player has contributed as much to his teams success. Vlad Guerrero is the Most VALUABLE Player.

Valuable:
1 a : having monetary value b : worth a good price
2 a : having desirable or esteemed characteristics or qualities <valuable friendships> b : of great use or service <valuable advice>

If I'm picking players for a team, my first pick isn't the guy with the most RBI last year for a team that I think was injured most of the time but still put a winning record together. He's not the most *valuable*. The most valuable guy to a team - to ANY team - is the guy who can create the most runs for the offense or save the most runs for the defense (actually, the combination of the two).

That's a fact, Jack.

How much has Vlad actually meant to the team this year? You say he's "carried them". All by himself? Has nobody else contributed anything? If they have, how do you apportion those wins? Do you have any answers? No - statistics are for losers. All you have is your own bullshit intuition and useless gut instincts. Of course, none of your faultless baseball judgement was at all inspired by looking at the homerun and rbi leaders, was it? Because, statistics are for losers. No, you've seen every game played in every park this year, and have the instinctive memory of a supercomputer. You just KNOW that Vladdy MUST be the most valuable player - hell, they've had a lot of injuries. You don't know how many man-games they've lost this year, though, because statistics are for losers. You don't even know if the Angels have won or lost more games this year, or if they're going to make the playoffs - because statistics are for losers.

Hey, why don't we give it to the guy with the highest salary? He might classify as most valuable, too. Oh, no, wait - is that a statistic?

.......

Anything useful to add?

 

[Ranger68]

Don't worry Beltre has no chance. Despite career numbers Bonds will win it hands down!!!

Beltre actually has over 150 more at bats than Bonds and still Bonds is the only guy in baseball that can change a managers game plan on his own!

Fingers

Yup. Of course, they have comparable *plate appearances*.