Yeah, that's quite a funky season he's put together. LOLthe_big_E said:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/adam-dunn-three-true-outcomes/
I'll post my Cy Young and MVP predictions and personal picks when the season's done.
Cy Young and MVP Choices
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http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/adam-dunn-three-true-outcomes/
I'll post my Cy Young and MVP predictions and personal picks when the season's done.
Picks and Predictions
Okay, now that the season's over, here are my picks and predictions for the various awards, starting in the Senior Circuit:
NL Cy Young
Who will win: Roger Clemens. Probably.
Who should win: Big Unit, in a walk. Look, forget Win-Loss. It's not a very useful tool in determining the quality of a pitcher, or at least it's not the best. Look at the other numbers: Johnson is ahead in Games Started, Quality Starts, Innings, Strikeouts (290 - 218!), Strikeouts per 9 IP, WHIP, ... just about *every other category*. If that doesn't convince you that Johnson was a better pitcher this year, and that he was simply let down by his team (to the tune of almost a full run a game) I don't know what will. This award, as the others, should go to the *best* eligible player. This year, that's Randy.
NL MVP
Who will win: Barry Bonds.
Who should win: Bonds. This is one of the all-time great offensive seasons in HISTORY, arguably *hands down* the greatest. He has totally lapped the field. Adrian Beltre may be the second-best player in the league this year, and his team may be going to the playoffs, but there should be NO DOUBT that he is, in fact, the *second best* player in the league.
AL Cy Young
Who will win: Johan Santana. (I'm giving the voters some credit here, hoping that Schilling's name isn't called.)
Who should win: Santana. This is a weak year for the AL MVP award (see below). You could make a strong case for Santana. He's third in the AL in Win Shares, tied for first in Win Shares Above Average. Comparing him to Schilling is much like comparing Big Unit to the Rocket in the other league in that the only edge Schill has is Wins (and only by one). Johan beats him in every other pitching category, mostly decisively. About the only argument you can make for Schilling is that his defense isn't anywhere near as good as Santana's. Other than that, this one should be a no-brainer. Santana pitched out of his mind down the stretch, too.
Al MVP
Who will win: Sheffield or Guerrero, perhaps even Ramirez - I'll give the edge to Sheff, despite the anti-NY media bias. I expect all three will receive a first-place vote or two.
Who should win: Tough call, but I'll stick with Ichiro. Look, nobody's running away with this race - it's a mediocre year for the league leaders, as MVP stats go. I've been boosting Suzuki long enough, I won't go into much more detail. Suffice to say that:
he led the league in Runs Created;
he plays very good (but overrated) defense;
he broke the *eighty year old* record for hits in a season.
Is Ichiro one of the great offensive forces in our game? Not really. He's a very consistent, *very good* player who had about the best year he could have - and it was a *very good* season, in a year that no player really had a *great* season. His breaking of a very significant record which has stood for almost a century is not meaningless, and doing it in the death valley that is Safeco should mean something.
Ichiro should win this award, IMO, but it's a much tougher call than the other three awards.
Okay, now that the season's over, here are my picks and predictions for the various awards, starting in the Senior Circuit:
NL Cy Young
Who will win: Roger Clemens. Probably.
Who should win: Big Unit, in a walk. Look, forget Win-Loss. It's not a very useful tool in determining the quality of a pitcher, or at least it's not the best. Look at the other numbers: Johnson is ahead in Games Started, Quality Starts, Innings, Strikeouts (290 - 218!), Strikeouts per 9 IP, WHIP, ... just about *every other category*. If that doesn't convince you that Johnson was a better pitcher this year, and that he was simply let down by his team (to the tune of almost a full run a game) I don't know what will. This award, as the others, should go to the *best* eligible player. This year, that's Randy.
NL MVP
Who will win: Barry Bonds.
Who should win: Bonds. This is one of the all-time great offensive seasons in HISTORY, arguably *hands down* the greatest. He has totally lapped the field. Adrian Beltre may be the second-best player in the league this year, and his team may be going to the playoffs, but there should be NO DOUBT that he is, in fact, the *second best* player in the league.
AL Cy Young
Who will win: Johan Santana. (I'm giving the voters some credit here, hoping that Schilling's name isn't called.)
Who should win: Santana. This is a weak year for the AL MVP award (see below). You could make a strong case for Santana. He's third in the AL in Win Shares, tied for first in Win Shares Above Average. Comparing him to Schilling is much like comparing Big Unit to the Rocket in the other league in that the only edge Schill has is Wins (and only by one). Johan beats him in every other pitching category, mostly decisively. About the only argument you can make for Schilling is that his defense isn't anywhere near as good as Santana's. Other than that, this one should be a no-brainer. Santana pitched out of his mind down the stretch, too.
Al MVP
Who will win: Sheffield or Guerrero, perhaps even Ramirez - I'll give the edge to Sheff, despite the anti-NY media bias. I expect all three will receive a first-place vote or two.
Who should win: Tough call, but I'll stick with Ichiro. Look, nobody's running away with this race - it's a mediocre year for the league leaders, as MVP stats go. I've been boosting Suzuki long enough, I won't go into much more detail. Suffice to say that:
he led the league in Runs Created;
he plays very good (but overrated) defense;
he broke the *eighty year old* record for hits in a season.
Is Ichiro one of the great offensive forces in our game? Not really. He's a very consistent, *very good* player who had about the best year he could have - and it was a *very good* season, in a year that no player really had a *great* season. His breaking of a very significant record which has stood for almost a century is not meaningless, and doing it in the death valley that is Safeco should mean something.
Ichiro should win this award, IMO, but it's a much tougher call than the other three awards.
Ichiro
How can you not vote for someone who just broke an 85 years record? Think of all the other great players of past and present-No one came closed.
How can you not vote for someone who just broke an 85 years record? Think of all the other great players of past and present-No one came closed.
Randy Johnson's year reminds me of Orel Hershiser's year of 1989. Orel won the Cy Young in '88 and basically was just as effective in '89 (same K's, ERA, IP, etc) except he had zero run support and ended up 15-15 and got like 1 vote for Cy Young while he got all 1st place votes in '88. The difference was he was 23-8.
Re: Ichiro
Ichy's year was great but he was much more impressive when he rightfully won in 2001. More runs, 2B, SB's, better SLG %. The cog for the team that set the record for best winning % in the modern era.
btw - I don't know what is considered "close" but Darin Erstad has a good run in 2000 with 240 in 156 games. I'd take his 2000 year over Ichiro's 2004 in a heartbeat
Records are great but just because so-and-so set a record doesn't mean the should be the MVP. Bobby Thigpen set the saves record in 1990 but he didn't sniff the CY that year.kwong_1978 said:
Ichy's year was great but he was much more impressive when he rightfully won in 2001. More runs, 2B, SB's, better SLG %. The cog for the team that set the record for best winning % in the modern era.
btw - I don't know what is considered "close" but Darin Erstad has a good run in 2000 with 240 in 156 games. I'd take his 2000 year over Ichiro's 2004 in a heartbeat
The Save is the one of the most useless stats ever invented. Bobby Thigpen wasn't one of the twenty most useful players that year.
2004 was the better year for Ichiro - almost identical slugging (just to set the record straight - two points is a pretty slim margin), 22 points of BA better, 33 points of OBP better, yeah fewer runs because his team SUCKS this year, fewer stolen bases (a fairly unimportant stat). His OPS was better this year, as were both his Runs Created and his Runs Created per 27 Outs. In the 2001 voting he *barely edged* both Giambi and teammate Boone.
Why I give it to Ichiro is that I don't think anyone's had a particularly good year - so why not give it to the guy who just broke an 80-year old record?
2004 was the better year for Ichiro - almost identical slugging (just to set the record straight - two points is a pretty slim margin), 22 points of BA better, 33 points of OBP better, yeah fewer runs because his team SUCKS this year, fewer stolen bases (a fairly unimportant stat). His OPS was better this year, as were both his Runs Created and his Runs Created per 27 Outs. In the 2001 voting he *barely edged* both Giambi and teammate Boone.
Why I give it to Ichiro is that I don't think anyone's had a particularly good year - so why not give it to the guy who just broke an 80-year old record?
