Cy Young and MVP Choices

[ocean976124]

Re: Re: Re: Cy Young and MVP Choices

No way should Manny get it. No way. His numbers aren't even league-leading where it counts, he plays a relatively unimportant defensive position, and plays it badly, and gets to hit half the time in Boston.

Manny leads the AL in HR, SLG%, OPS, 2nd in Total Bases, 3rd in RBI, and 7th in AVG.
He plays defense much better than you give him credit for. And in Fenway Park he play The Wall extremely well.
Secondly, Manny playing in Boston does not inflate his numbers. In fact, Fenway is more of a doubles park than a HR park. Manny's stats are similiar to when he played with the Cleveland Indians.

 

[Ranger68]

A couple of comments: first, regarding Vald Guerrero.....the reason he may win the MVP (especially if the Angels make the playoffs) is because of Anaheim's injuries this YEAR: Over the same time period (at least 2 months) the following starting hitters were injured for about 2 months: Troy Glaus, Garret Anderson, Darrin Erstad, Ben Molina; These are not fringe players, these are all middle oif the order hitters. Vlad continued hitting even when he could have been pitched around. That's why I rank him as high as I did.

That's a decent reason, though studies have *repeatedly* indicated that the other players around a batter have practically no effect on his hitting stats. Anyway, since Vladdy's only taken 41 walks, I guess he wasn't really pitched around all that much.
Anyway, I think Guerrero will certainly draw a lot of attention from the voters.

Regarding the voters, did you hear that the guy from Chicago who didn;t have either Vernon Wells or Carlos Delgado on his MVP ranking last year got fired from voting from the awards. Good riddance! Delgado was the obvious MVP last year, not A-Rod, and voters like this idiot were the reason why the 2nd place MVP guy wound up winning.

Well, not to have Delgado even on the ballot was pretty hard to figure. ... Although I'm not sure Carlos was such an obvious choice. Look, his numbers were *slightly* better than A-Rod's (even a bit more than the actual numbers because Texas is a better hitter's park than Skydome), but A-Rod contributed WAAAY more with the glove at short than Carlos did at first. If you're gonna give the MVP to a firstbaseman over a shortstop, he really should have *drastically* better offensive numbers - I don't think Carlos' were enough ahead of A-Rod's to give him the MVP.

Anyway, I'm glad he was fired. As I said, not having Carlos even *ranked* was silly.

 

[Ranger68]

Re: Re: Re: Re: Cy Young and MVP Choices

Manny leads the AL in HR, SLG%, OPS, 2nd in Total Bases, 3rd in RBI, and 7th in AVG.
He plays defense much better than you give him credit for. And in Fenway Park he play The Wall extremely well.
Secondly, Manny playing in Boston does not inflate his numbers. In fact, Fenway is more of a doubles park than a HR park. Manny's stats are similiar to when he played with the Cleveland Indians.

First off, Manny's defense is Wall-to-wall terrible. Period. You can look up the numbers. If you'd like, I can post the choicest bits here.

Second, playing in Fenway CERTAINLY increased Manny's performance. ALL hitting stats jump by about ten percent there. (This year, the number is 13%. Last year, it was only 6%.) You're right - his stats are similar. That's because his best years were 99 and 2000 - in Cleveland. Park factor is just that - a *factor* - but to ignore the obvious benefit of playing in Fenway isn't constructive.

Again, you've got to compare Manny to the other left-fielders in the game - and firstbasemen and DH's while were at it. All are primarily offensive positions - positions where you stick pure sluggers who can't play much defense. (Not to say that there aren't good defensive players at those positions, but Manny is NOT one of them.) His numbers are still good, compared to them, just not great.

Look, I'll back off a bit. I don't think Manny would be a *terrible* choice. I just don't think he's distanced himself all that much from everyone else yet. As I said when I started - I think the AL MVP is a hard choice because there's no consensus choice, as there is for, say NL MVP or the Cy Youngs.

 

[ocean976124]

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Cy Young and MVP Choices

First off, Manny's defense is Wall-to-wall terrible. Period. You can look up the numbers. If you'd like, I can post the choicest bits here.

Watching him on a daily basis I would have agreed with you last year. However, this year he's not been bad at all and in fact has made a few "highlight" plays in the field. He's not a great fielder, but he's not a liability at all (anymore).

Second, playing in Fenway CERTAINLY increased Manny's performance. ALL hitting stats jump by about ten percent there. (This year, the number is 13%. Last year, it was only 6%.) You're right - his stats are similar. That's because his best years were 99 and 2000 - in Cleveland. Park factor is just that - a *factor* - but to ignore the obvious benefit of playing in Fenway isn't constructive.

Its not like Coors Field jumps in stats we're talking about. Manny is considered by many scouts to simply be one of the best right-handed hitters in the game.

Again, you've got to compare Manny to the other left-fielders in the game - and firstbasemen and DH's while were at it. All are primarily offensive positions - positions where you stick pure sluggers who can't play much defense. (Not to say that there aren't good defensive players at those positions, but Manny is NOT one of them.) His numbers are still good, compared to them, just not great.

Manny's overall numbers are great when compared to other hitters in the AL.
When picking an MVP one looks at stats and impact on their team. Manny has both....

 

[Ranger68]

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Cy Young and MVP Choices

Watching him on a daily basis I would have agreed with you last year. However, this year he's not been bad at all and in fact has made a few "highlight" plays in the field. He's not a great fielder, but he's not a liability at all (anymore).
Its not like Coors Field jumps in stats we're talking about. Manny is considered by many scouts to simply be one of the best right-handed hitters in the game.
Manny's overall numbers are great when compared to other hitters in the AL.
When picking an MVP one looks at stats and impact on their team. Manny has both....

1. Manny's numbers this year are still terrible. Range Factor - last, Zone Rating - last, Fielding Percentage - last, errors - second. Sorry, but if there's been an improvement, he's only closed the gap between himself and the second worst defensive left-fielder this year. He's still detrimental to the team with a glove.

2. I don't disagree that Manny's one of the best right-handed hitters in the game. I think he'll make the Hall someday. And no, Fenway certainly isn't Coors. Nevertheless, to say that Manny hasn't benefitted from playing there isn't truthful. His numbers jump about 10% playing in Fenway. The numbers for players on *some* other teams drop because of where they play.

3. Manny's numbers are *very good*, not great. Not by a longshot. When you apply park factor, he doesn't outdistance a number of players in the AL by that much. Not having done the rigorous analysis, I can't say how much he leads the league in anything, or if he even does. ... But he's no slam-dunk, that's for sure.
Lots of other guys have *similar* numbers on good and bad teams. Some guys even have *similar* numbers and actually contribute at important defensive positions in a positive manner (Rodriguez, Guillen).
Surely that last fact has to count for *something* in the MVP voting.

 

[Ranger68]

An article about Bonds:

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=bondsnumbersadduptoanoth&prov=tsn&type=lgns

 

[the_big_E]

I love Manny...but he is a defensive liability. Often times he is replaced by Roberts, Millar, or Kapler late in games.

 

[Ranger68]

Yeah, and when you're replaced by Millar, you know you're no Devon White.

 

[ocean976124]

I love Manny...but he is a defensive liability. Often times he is replaced by Roberts, Millar, or Kapler late in games.

No he's not. Only in a blow out is Manny replaced in games or in close late inning games he's replaced by a pinch runner.

 

[ocean976124]

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Cy Young and MVP Choices

1. Manny's numbers this year are still terrible. Range Factor - last, Zone Rating - last, Fielding Percentage - last, errors - second. Sorry, but if there's been an improvement, he's only closed the gap between himself and the second worst defensive left-fielder this year. He's still detrimental to the team with a glove.

I wouldn't say detrimental, but he definitely doesn't add anything out there.

2. I don't disagree that Manny's one of the best right-handed hitters in the game. I think he'll make the Hall someday. And no, Fenway certainly isn't Coors. Nevertheless, to say that Manny hasn't benefitted from playing there isn't truthful. His numbers jump about 10% playing in Fenway. The numbers for players on *some* other teams drop because of where they play.

Many hitters hit better at home than on the road.

3. Manny's numbers are *very good*, not great. Not by a longshot. When you apply park factor, he doesn't outdistance a number of players in the AL by that much. Not having done the rigorous analysis, I can't say how much he leads the league in anything, or if he even does. ... But he's no slam-dunk, that's for sure.

He leads the leauge in home runs and slugging. He's among league leaders in RBIs and in the top 10 in average.

Lots of other guys have *similar* numbers on good and bad teams. Some guys even have *similar* numbers and actually contribute at important defensive positions in a positive manner (Rodriguez, Guillen).
Surely that last fact has to count for *something* in the MVP voting.

A player on a bad team shouldn't be MVP unless they completely destroy the opposition. Part of MVP is impact on their team, and Manny definitely has a huge impact on Boston's lineup and season.
As for fielding, I don't think it counts for as much as you think it does in MVP voting. Many of the previous MVPs weren't great fielders....

 

[the_big_E]

Nonetheless he is replaced. Have you ever seen him run? He's pure effort. If it David Ortiz wasnt there, Manny would be the DH.

 

[Ranger68]

No he's not. Only in a blow out is Manny replaced in games or in close late inning games he's replaced by a pinch runner.

I'll check it out, but I've SEEN Manny replaced defensively in other games. Why do it *at all* if he's an adequate defensive player? You just resting the guy? ... I don't buy it.

 

[Ranger68]

Calling the SABR ...

I wouldn't say detrimental, but he definitely doesn't add anything out there.

He COSTS THEM RUNS. That's the definition of "detrimental". If you want me to quantify how many runs, I can run some numbers.

Many hitters hit better at home than on the road.
He leads the leauge in home runs and slugging. He's among league leaders in RBIs and in the top 10 in average.

Dude, for god's sake. Is it your contention that park factor is meaningless? That hitting stats aren't improved by playing in Fenway? If so, we have nothing else to talk about.
"Many hitters" also hit WORSE at home, due to the fact that they play in pitching friendly parks.
If you can't acknowledge that, we're done here.
If you do acknowledge that, I'll tell you what the net effect is - it DRASTICALLY REDUCES his relative lead in all those percentages, and should affect your perception of all of his numbers, to the tune of about, oh, 7% say. Who leads the league once we've accounted for park factor? I'm not sure, but it may not be Manny anymore.

A player on a bad team shouldn't be MVP unless they completely destroy the opposition. Part of MVP is impact on their team, and Manny definitely has a huge impact on Boston's lineup and season.

How can a bad team completely destroy the opposition?
Or do you mean, unless the *player* completely destroys the opposition? To cut it short, Barry does. Totally and incontrovertibly. Destroys everyone in the NL.
And "impact on the team"?? Did you read that article I posted the link to? If the Giants didn't have Barry, they'd be in last - their offense would SUCK. As it is, they're second. THAT'S impact.

But, to address the real argument, I don't buy it. The MVP has, historically, always been given to the best player in the league, regardless of team finish. (Barring mistakes, naturally.) That's a FACT, and that's the way it should be. Barry Bonds is the best, most valuable player in the league. End of story. It's not his fault the rest of his team blows hard.

As for fielding, I don't think it counts for as much as you think it does in MVP voting. Many of the previous MVPs weren't great fielders....

ONCE AGAIN, I'm not predicting the voting pattern here - I'm saying what REALITY IS. Reality is, defense is part of baseball. Not only does Manny NOT play an important defensive position, he costs his team runs. Other guys, playing more important defensive positions, and playing well, SAVE lots of runs. This goes to offset the offensive advantage that Manny has. That's reality.

Unfortunately, reality also tells us that the BBWAA almost always give the MVP award to the guys with the most homers and RBI's, regardless of position, defense, speed, or park.
So, Manny has a great shot.
Does he deserve it? Not necessarily.

 

[ocean976124]

Re: Calling the SABR ...

He COSTS THEM RUNS. That's the definition of "detrimental". If you want me to quantify how many runs, I can run some numbers.

Defense is over-rated to a certain extent. Manny produces much more than he lets in.

Dude, for god's sake. Is it your contention that park factor is meaningless? That hitting stats aren't improved by playing in Fenway? If so, we have nothing else to talk about.
"Many hitters" also hit WORSE at home, due to the fact that they play in pitching friendly parks.
If you can't acknowledge that, we're done here.

It is a factor but for many reasons, not just the fact the left field wall is only slightly more than 300 feet away. To put it simply, to claim Manny Ramirez's stats are inflated because he plays at Fenway is silly. Maybe he gets a few more HR and RBI but the guy would hit just as well in many parks in MLB.

How can a bad team completely destroy the opposition?
Or do you mean, unless the *player* completely destroys the opposition? To cut it short, Barry does. Totally and incontrovertibly. Destroys everyone in the NL.
And "impact on the team"?? Did you read that article I posted the link to? If the Giants didn't have Barry, they'd be in last - their offense would SUCK. As it is, they're second. THAT'S impact.

What does Barry Bonds have to do with the AL MVP?

But, to address the real argument, I don't buy it. The MVP has, historically, always been given to the best player in the league, regardless of team finish. (Barring mistakes, naturally.) That's a FACT, and that's the way it should be. Barry Bonds is the best, most valuable player in the league. End of story. It's not his fault the rest of his team blows hard.

Not always. Its a debate that heats up every year. There have been players who hit the cover off the ball only to see someone on a winning team get the MVP award.

ONCE AGAIN, I'm not predicting the voting pattern here - I'm saying what REALITY IS. Reality is, defense is part of baseball. Not only does Manny NOT play an important defensive position, he costs his team runs. Other guys, playing more important defensive positions, and playing well, SAVE lots of runs. This goes to offset the offensive advantage that Manny has. That's reality.

So no Left Fielder can win the MVP award? Come on, give me a break. Defense is rarely part of the MVP voting consideration. Should it play more of a role? Yes, but as MoneyBall and the Oakland A's have shown, as long as the offense makes up for the defense you're doing fine.

An espn article on Manny's greatness as a hitter:
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=neel/040902

 

[mrpolarbear]

Us Redbird fans dont give a rats ass if Rolen or Pujols dont win it all we want is another World Series title.

 

[Ranger68]

Re: Re: Calling the SABR ...

Defense is over-rated to a certain extent. Manny produces much more than he lets in.

To what extent is defense over-rated?
Please elaborate.

Of course Manny produces much more than he lets in. Thanks, Einstein. The question is, once you adjust for defense, is he the MVP? Does the sum total of his contributions beat everyone elses? You don't know, do you?

It is a factor but for many reasons, not just the fact the left field wall is only slightly more than 300 feet away. To put it simply, to claim Manny Ramirez's stats are inflated because he plays at Fenway is silly. Maybe he gets a few more HR and RBI but the guy would hit just as well in many parks in MLB.

TO DENY THAT MANNY RAMIREZ' STATS ARE INFLATED BY FENWAY IS NOT ONLY SILLY, IT'S TOTALLY OUT OF LINE WITH REALITY. Period. End of discussion. Again, if you don't agree, there's really no hope for you right now. If you really don't, just post that answer in your next post, and nothing else, and we can stop now.

I never said it was *the best* hitter's park in the AL, but it's better than most. Some players' stats are *deflated* by their park.
This is a fact.
Learn it.

What does Barry Bonds have to do with the AL MVP?

Nothing. Sorry - I'm confusing the slow people I'm arguing with now.

Not always. Its a debate that heats up every year. There have been players who hit the cover off the ball only to see someone on a winning team get the MVP award.

Name some.

So no Left Fielder can win the MVP award? Come on, give me a break. Defense is rarely part of the MVP voting consideration. Should it play more of a role? Yes, but as MoneyBall and the Oakland A's have shown, as long as the offense makes up for the defense you're doing fine.

WHO SAID NO LEFT FIELDER CAN WIN THE AWARD?!?! Are you even paying attention? Hey, dude, Bonds plays left, and he's TWICE the player Manny is, and deserves to win the NL MVP unanimously.

What I'm saying, quite clearly, is that it's stupid to give the award to the best slugger every year, without correcting for park and defense, at least. That's all. It's really quite clear.

Yes, defense is rarely part of the voting. It's an awful shame. It's no surprise, though. There are tons of offensive stats, and very few defensive ones - well, very few which make it easy to determine the impact a player's defense makes on a team.
Of course, few of the BBWAA schmucks ever factor in park factor either, so ...

And, dude, I don't think you have the slightest clue about "money ball", so don't try to tell me anything about what Beane did there. Don't even start. Have you read the book? Let's talk ...

Seriously - if you're interested, I can point you to a lot of fine books and Internet articles talking about all of these things.

An espn article on Manny's greatness as a hitter:
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=neel/040902

What am I supposed to gather from that article? That Manny's a great hitter? Well, duh.
Is he the MVP this year?
I'm not sure.
Neither is Eric Neel, to weaken your argument a little further, ocean.
And comparing Bonds to Manny?? Please. Let me off the bus now.
Just goes to show you that not everybody who writes sports columns knows what the f*ck he's talking about.
If both players stopped playing RIGHT NOW, Bonds would be a first-ballot, unanimous choice for the Hall. Manny would have to wait for the Veterans' Committee, I suspect.

 

[the_big_E]

ManRam's stats coming into tonights game:

At home:

65 G, 240 AB, 51 R, 75 H, 20 2B, 21 HR, 61 RBI, .313, .402 OBP, .658 SLUG

On the Road:

59 G, 227 AB, 31 R, 72 H, 15 2B, 15 HR, 48 RBI, .317, .408 OBP, .582 SLUG

So as you can see slightly better at home, but nothing to indicate mass inflation.

If the Red Sox end up catching the Yankees and winning the division I would be inclined to give the MVP to Manny, if I had a vote. Same reason I would choose Beltre over Bonds should the Dodgers make it and San Fran doesnt it. I dont intend to open another can of worms with you Ranger68, but personally I think the teams performace should factor. I know Bonds is a beast and is having an uber season but if they dont make the playoffs, its all for not.

 

[Ranger68]

"Slightly better"?? SEVENTY POINTS OF SLUGGING?!?!?
LOL
Gimme a break.
(Oh, by the way - take his OPS on the road - .990 - add 7%, which I recommended most recently - this gives 1.059 - his home OPS is actually 1.060. ....)

I'll just reiterate that team performance practically never factors in to MVP voting, thankfully. As it shouldn't.

 

[the_big_E]

I am not defending the other guy, I just wanted to show his comparisons because whoever said his home numbers are much better, well they arent.

 

[Ranger68]

Dude, his home numbers ARE MUCH BETTER! CAN YOU READ?!?!?!
SEVENTY POINTS OF SLUGGING! SEVENTY POINTS OF OPS!
*banging my head against the wall*
Never mind.
Enjoy your delusions.