The future of housing? Your opinions

[SchlongConery]

You could make the same argument about the Nazis, Trump, the Taliban, the IDF, or Hamas. Grow up.

This country does not need a rapid increase in population. Nor does any other country. For that matter, neither does the entire world.

Rapid being the most important word.

Being the first native born son of refugee to Canada I am all for immigration and giving refuge to people in need.

As a mariner, we have an obligligation to change course and do all we can to rescue another vessel in distress. But a boat can only carry so many people or it will capsize, So sometimes people are left behind until we can return. Hence the saying ""women and children first".

If we try to take everybody aboard all at once, we risk capsizing the boat and all will be lost.

Canada needs more people to continue to support those of us already here. We've overspent and need younger, and more people to keep our debt and country afloat. That means more immigrants. And not just Doctors, engineers, lawyers and the vaunted professionals. In fact, what we could use most of right now is simple labour. Construction labour, agricultural labour, industrial labour, service labour.

But it seems that we don't have the infrastructure, nor can it be built fast enough at any price to keep up with a million new people every year. I understand most Canadians don't even have a family Doctor. And certainly there is no "starter homes" or reasonably priced rental housing that labourers can afford to live, least of all support a family.

 

[DesRicardo]

 

[SchlongConery]

Yes you can. And you will find that the negatives tip the scales massively in their disfavour. You can make that argument about anything, so what? There is no rapid population increase in Canada either. Canada's population is projected to grow at 0.71% for 2024, putting it at 125th in the world. One of the lowest. 2023 was one year when it grew by 3%, again nothing to write home about when the normal growth rates are between 0.1 to 3%. You are blowing things out of proportion.

Population growth rate Comparison - The World Factbook

www.cia.gov

0.71%? 3% this year. What is that in number of housing units?

My math and assumptions may be way off .. so I stand to be corrected.

39,000,000 x 0.03 = 1.17 million people divided by say 4 to a housing unit= 250,000 housing units a year if. you divide it across the entire country. But most immigrants tend to live in the areas where tehy have support networks, formal, familial or cultural. So that means the big cities.

There aren't enough sheets of plywood and nails in Canada to hammer together that many Rio de Janiero favela shanty towns a year.

I'm no social engineer, economist or societal growth expert but I feel that while the pecentages may seem small, a million people is a lot of fucking people! Especially in one year..

 

[southpaw]

so a 2 pronged approach to both increase houses built, and drop immigration - especially students and temp workers will help in the short term. But in the long term ...

The operative word is "drop". So you do agree that immigration levels are too high.

As for the long term, you can accomplish anything over a long enough horizon. We could have robots working 24/7 to build faster housing. We could have an unlimited supply of AI doctors and nurses to bring hospital wait times down to zero.

But until then, prudence is what's required.

 

[southpaw]

I dont view immigration as high or low. Immigration is just immigration. I view it as a compromise position, where both supply and demand side pressures are addressed.

Spoken like a true politician. Or a McKinsey consultant.

 

[JohnLarue]

I dont view immigration as high or low. Immigration is just immigration. I view it as a compromise position, where both supply and demand side pressures are addressed. There seems to be a narrative that only demand side pressures matter, which I disagree with.

you are disagreeing the facts of the matter and pretending the supply side can be addressed

real world issues are not solved by ignoring facts and pretending

the supply side can not address the issue
as the Desjardins economists pointed out .''it is not going to happen''
any uptick in housing starts is welcome but it is not going to increase by 152%
a 10 to 20% increase in housing starts would be impressive
152% >>>>>>> 'it is not going to happen''

there is no compromise position. it is physically impossible
in addition continuing to expand the population at an unsustainable pace will cause catastrophic strain on health care and transportation infrastructure

that leaves addressing the demand side to fix the affordability issue

again your solution to a flooded basement is to try and make the basement bigger while still leaving the taps running

the taps need to be turned off

you are not very bright

 

[SchlongConery]

Modular construction small homes. Elon musk lives in one of these

I've looked into the business of small homes on small lots. In local and more remote areas. And smarter, more resourceful people and groups have too.

Certainly we oversize our homes and building lots. That market demand is going tohave to evolve. And it will.

Where to build them is the limiting issue in terms of basic infrastructure like sewerage and water supply. And in cities like Toronto, transit, schools and health care. It becomes truly mind boggling.

We looked into some really nice land in the Kingston-Napanee area for this type of housing development. Very unusal problem was that the bedrock was so close to the surface that the cost of installing sewer lines was astronomical. We did a study on various alternatives with on-site holding tanks and either force main pumping or sucker-trucking on a monthly basis and delivering to the exisiting wastewater treatment plants. THe municipal and governments wanted NOTHING to do with it and the Provincial MoE had a hard NO response too.

It's a much more complex problem than it appears. It is solvable and doable, but it gets more and more expensive.

 

[JohnLarue]

It can be and should be. Stop misinterpreting the one economist who said it wasn't going to happen in 7 years, by copy pasting one phrase from an entire sentence. It does not have to happen in 7 years. It can take longer. But it needs to be fixed regardless.

it wont ever get fixed until the demand side pressure is reduced

you want to doom the 20 & 30 year old's to raising their families in their parents basement

you doubt the economist
name any mature industry that can be grown by 152% ?

it is not going to happen in 7 years, 10 years, 15 years or 20 years


"it is not going to happen''

It is because addressing the supply side is not possible tomorrow, I said, that a 2 pronged approach should be adopted with the focus being on the supply side for the longer term.

the demand side can be addressed with a stroke of a pen

you are not very bright

Stop misinterpreting the one economist who said it wasn't going to happen in 7 years

do not tell me what to do
there is no misinterpreting "it is not going to happen''


find a credible economist who thinks we can increase housing starts by 152%, 100% or even 50% and sustain that growth over a number of years ?

you are not very bright and/ or you are not being honest about your motivation here
you are so desperate to maintain permeant resident immigration you do not give a rats ass about the current population

 

[JohnLarue]

Rambling and copy pasting again.

you are not cluing in, despite the obvious being repeated for you many times

you refuse to answer questions put to you

find a credible economist who thinks we can increase housing starts by 152%, 100% or even 50% and sustain that growth over a number of years ?

answer the question

you are not very bright and/ or you are not being honest about your motivation here
you are so desperate to maintain permeant resident immigration you do not give a rats ass about the current population

 

[southpaw]

You are not being honest about your motivation here
you are so desperate to maintain permeant resident immigration you do not give a rats ass about the current population

Exactly. The law of holes: "if you find yourself in a hole, stop digging."

Canada is in a hole with this housing crisis, and he wants to dig deeper.

 

[JohnLarue]

Oh now the 7 years is a "number of years" now. I already directly answered it. Yes, we cannot fix the supply side tomorrow. We cannot build 5.8M homes, or rather, 3.5M MORE homes than the projected 2.3M by 2030. Hence why I said in the short term, we need to tackle both demand side and supply side pressures.

7 years or 17 , it will not get fixed, until the demand pressure is reduced

The economist you quoted did not say, that it is NEVER possible for housing supply to catch up. He said it is not going to happen by 2030.

its never going to happen until the demand pressure is reduced

So you keep pulling the phrase "it is not going to happen", as if there is absolutely no way, for supply to catch up and there is absolutely NOTHING we can do. That is just bullshit.

what is bullshit is thinking Canada can magically increase housing starts on anywhere near the scale required

Short term, you have to tackle BOTH supply and demand side issues. Long term, you have to exclusively focus on ramping up supply. But you do need, to tackle supply. You absolutely do because it is infact the root cause.

no , we slam on the immigration brakes until the issue gets fixed
any uptick in supply will be welcome, but lets be realistic about expectations
We cannot build 3.5M MORE homes than the projected 2.3M by 2030 or 2040

No I don't. I dont get paid for every new PR. We need PRs .

i do not care what you get paid for
we have too many people without homes, we do not need PRs

and I find your solutions misguided

you would find gravity misguided if it interfered with your agenda

you are unable to accept straightforward logic

You are not being honest about your motivation here

too many lilly white folks in Canada for you

 

[TomFord1980]

Unfortunately for the Canada, limiting immigration will choke the Canadian economy as there is a dire labour shortage which immigration backstops. Immigration and housing are not mutually exclusive, both must happening simultaneously which the government has already “figured out” but has no solution for. The current opposition has no solution neither.
Immigrants continue to do jobs that Canadians either cannot or will not do which is and more visually apparent in major centres across Canada and becoming more and more in smaller regional centres.
Can Canada “ wait until things are figured out” to limit immigration. The answer is obviously, no.
In 2023, immigrants brought in 22 billion dollars to Canada and did in the neighbourhood of 300, 000 jobs that Canadians either cannot or will not do, many primarily from India.
The Canada - India economic patch solution is something that the US, Western Europe, Japan and other nations with decreasing workforces have failed to do.

I smell bullshit. Youve drank the kool aid. Immigration is a cancer that simply divides us into tribes. Think brown people in Brampton. Think the Chinese in Markham. Immigration keeps wages down for corporations who lobby the government as immigrants will generally work for lower wages to "make ends meet" since they dont generally have generational wealth to fall back on.

 

[JohnLarue]

We slam the immigration brakes until it gets fixed? You just said it will NEVER get fixed. So you mean slam the immigration brakes forever and bankrupt Canada?

do not misquote me
it will NEVER get fixed without reducing the demand pressure

So nice try.

do not misquote me

No. It WILL get fixed and it CAN get fixed on the supply side.

that is not going to happen

You have absolutely no analysis or data, to say that it will NEVER get fixed. No economist, analyst has said it either. It is something you pulled out of your ass.

ask anyone who understands economics and constraints
can Canada increase housing starts by 152% and sustain that pace for 7 , 10, 15 years ? No
can Canada increase housing starts by 100% and sustain that pace for 7 , 10, 15 years ? No
can Canada increase housing starts by 50% and sustain that pace for 7 , 10, 15 years ? No
can Canada increase housing starts by 30% and sustain that pace for 7 , 10, 15 years ? No
can Canada increase housing starts by 15% and sustain that pace for 7 , 10, 15 years ?Maybe and trying to increase that pace likely will cause incremental inflation

Not being able to really defend your position, your silly and childish accusation is that I am wanting immigration because I want LESS white people in the country. LOL. Aka, the great white replacement theory. LOL. Yeah, bud, I get paid everytime someone comes across the border.

its the only logical conclusion why you have taken such an indefensible position
whether you get paid or not is irrelevant

So you have now proved that you were not being honest with your motivations and projecting. So housing is just a crutch for you, not that you care about it. Your agenda is different.

no i have been clear and very logical
have in demand skills and a job offer in hand : Welcome to Canada

This is why you keep claiming that supply cannot be fixed, because if you accept that it can, then your "demand pressures" argument wont have any legs to stand on

.

No, i can not accept a completely illogical premise that Canada can increase housing starts by 152% and sustain that pace
it is beyond stupid and its not going to happen

Further, saying pump the , while saying that it will NEVER get fixed, is duplicitous.

do not misquote me
i said slam on the immigration brakes until it gets fixed
the housing shortage will never get fixed without addressing the unsustainable demand pressures

how's the taps open basement renovation working for you ?
what a fool

You just ended up exposing yourself. I predicted this in my very FIRST post on this thread, because you guys are entirely predictable.

I exposed myself by pointing out your hidden agenda ??
i do not think so

 

[TomFord1980]

Immigration does not divide us. Right wingers like you do. Right wingers like you should also become immigrants. To Antartica.

Dont be a fruitcake Kautilya. You are an immigrant. Of course you dont think immigration divides us since Daddy Trudeau allowed you to suck on governments titty.

 

[JohnLarue]

Rambling and copy pasting after exposing yourself and shooting yourself in the dick. You never had an argument from the get go!

you say that every time you get cornered with logic
you are a clown

you are not very bright

 

[Frankfooter]

I smell bullshit. Youve drank the kool aid. Immigration is a cancer that simply divides us into tribes. Think brown people in Brampton. Think the Chinese in Markham. Immigration keeps wages down for corporations who lobby the government as immigrants will generally work for lower wages to "make ends meet" since they dont generally have generational wealth to fall back on.

The Great Replacement Theory.

 

[jalimon]

The Great Replacement Theory.

Which is doomed to fail miserably if you cannot house the replacers.... In Montreal immigrants they live 3-4 families in 2 bed rooms apartment

 

[JohnLarue]

There was zero logic in your post. I say that every time you go on a long repetitive rant where you get so worked up, you repeat the same phrase over and over again like a short circuited robot.

lots of logic in my posts
logic you ignore

ask anyone who understands economics and constraints
can Canada increase housing starts by 152% and sustain that pace for 7 , 10, 15 years ? No
can Canada increase housing starts by 100% and sustain that pace for 7 , 10, 15 years ? No
can Canada increase housing starts by 50% and sustain that pace for 7 , 10, 15 years ? No
can Canada increase housing starts by 30% and sustain that pace for 7 , 10, 15 years ? No
can Canada increase housing starts by 15% and sustain that pace for 7 , 10, 15 years ?Maybe and trying to increase that pace likely will cause incremental inflation

every time you get cornered with logic, you dismiss it
you are a clown

 

[JohnLarue]

Many immigrants want to live in joint families. They may have a 3 bedroom and you'd have 3 families in there. Often times it's a choice.

actual that is a likely a violation of city bylaws and fire codes

not to mention a strain on city infrastructure (water, sewers, garbage collection) that wont be covered by property taxes for that one unit
oh, i guess i did mention it

 

[JohnLarue]

]Yeah repeating "Wrong", "Do not misquote me", "152%", "it will never happen" and then following all that up with "you just want less white people" - is not logic.

sure it is, it is the only logical explanation for your indefensible position

it is pure logic that dictates , it will never happen without reducing unsustainable population growth

there is no logical / conceivable way Canada can increase housing starts by 152% or even 30%
but despite the clear factual matter of the constraints, you insist it must be done in order to maintain PR immigration.
you are willing to sacrifice temp workers & students, but insist on maintain PR immigration.

that only leaves you pushing a hidden agenda

how is the taps open , wet basement renovation working for you ?

you are not very bright