The future of housing? Your opinions

[Kautilya]

How gullible. And if others don't share your gullibility, you call them racist.

McKinsey & Company - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

McKinsey has been the subject of significant controversy related to its business practices. The company has been criticized for its role promoting OxyContin use during the opioid crisis in North America, its work with Enron, and its work for authoritarian regimes like Saudi Arabia and Russia.

What do those have anything to do with their report on population growth? None. And how many actual instances of good reports have they produced over the years? Tons.

And racist? Where did I call anyone racist here? False accusation.

 

[southpaw]

What do those have anything to do with their report on population growth? None. And how many actual instances of good reports have they produced over the years? Tons.

It goes towards their credibility. They will promote anything that is in their best interests. Not what is in the best interests of Canadians.

 

[JohnLarue]

6 months is a very short duration in the grand scheme of things, especially to address a macro economic issue, that is impacted by multiple domestic and global factors. It will get there eventually. If it can get from 8% to 2.9%, it can get down to 2%.

you are missing the point
it took a decade to get the 1970s inflation under control

there is still wage inflationary pressure
unions do not give a rats ass about their impacts on inflation , nor do they give a rats ass about interest rates

the walk backs by the Fed / BofC show they have not slayed the inflation dragon
it certainly is not supportive of

which will get better shortly?

six months ?
you have no idea when inflation will get back to target

 

[Kautilya]

It goes towards their credibility. They will promote anything that is in their best interests. Not what is in the best interests of Canadians.

If it is about their credibility then the good work they have done has to be balanced against the criticisms, which would tip the scales massively in favour of McKinsey. Pfizer was sued in Nigeria for a drug they tested that resulted in numerous children dying and several others being paralyzed, experiencing organ failure etc. Does that mean you dont take the COVID vaccine or any other drug they make that saves lives?

you have no idea when inflation will get back to target

So if you have no idea when inflation will get back to target, when it has already come down to within <1% of the target, from a high of 8% just a couple of years ago, how do you know the same scenario from 50 years ago will repeat? Your logic does not add up.

 

[Frankfooter]

we do not need more per capita. (human volumes)
we need more productivity per capita

Still arguing to pay people less so 'productivity' and profit goes up?

 

[southpaw]

If it is about their credibility then the good work they have done has to be balanced against the criticisms.

You could make the same argument about the Nazis, Trump, the Taliban, the IDF, or Hamas. Grow up.

This country does not need a rapid increase in population. Nor does any other country. For that matter, neither does the entire world.

 

[jeff2]

Unfortunately for the Canada, limiting immigration will choke the Canadian economy as there is a dire labour shortage which immigration backstops. Immigration and housing are not mutually exclusive, both must happening simultaneously which the government has already “figured out” but has no solution for. The current opposition has no solution neither.
Immigrants continue to do jobs that Canadians either cannot or will not do which is and more visually apparent in major centres across Canada and becoming more and more in smaller regional centres.
Can Canada “ wait until things are figured out” to limit immigration. The answer is obviously, no.
In 2023, immigrants brought in 22 billion dollars to Canada and did in the neighbourhood of 300, 000 jobs that Canadians either cannot or will not do, many primarily from India.
The Canada - India economic patch solution is something that the US, Western Europe, Japan and other nations with decreasing workforces have failed to do.

I wish people cared as much about the massive labour surplus in the 1980s and 1990s with sky high unemployment. Boomers and women streaming in and to lesser extent immigration(but more so when Mulroney jacked it up).

 

[EddieBrock1500]

Modular construction small homes. Elon musk lives in one of these

 

[Anbarandy]

Still arguing to pay people less so 'productivity' and profit goes up?

That is why he is TERB's self-professed, sole billionaire capitalist titan of industry, commerce and greed is good ethos.

 

[Kautilya]

You could make the same argument about the Nazis, Trump, the Taliban, the IDF, or Hamas. Grow up.

This country does not need a rapid increase in population. Nor does any other country. For that matter, neither does the entire world.

Yes you can. And you will find that the negatives tip the scales massively in their disfavour. You can make that argument about anything, so what? There is no rapid population increase in Canada either. Canada's population is projected to grow at 0.71% for 2024, putting it at 125th in the world. One of the lowest. 2023 was one year when it grew by 3%, again nothing to write home about when the normal growth rates are between 0.1 to 3%. You are blowing things out of proportion.

https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/field/population-growth-rate/country-comparison/

 

[SchlongConery]

You could make the same argument about the Nazis, Trump, the Taliban, the IDF, or Hamas. Grow up.

This country does not need a rapid increase in population. Nor does any other country. For that matter, neither does the entire world.

Rapid being the most important word.

Being the first native born son of refugee to Canada I am all for immigration and giving refuge to people in need.

As a mariner, we have an obligligation to change course and do all we can to rescue another vessel in distress. But a boat can only carry so many people or it will capsize, So sometimes people are left behind until we can return. Hence the saying ""women and children first".

If we try to take everybody aboard all at once, we risk capsizing the boat and all will be lost.

Canada needs more people to continue to support those of us already here. We've overspent and need younger, and more people to keep our debt and country afloat. That means more immigrants. And not just Doctors, engineers, lawyers and the vaunted professionals. In fact, what we could use most of right now is simple labour. Construction labour, agricultural labour, industrial labour, service labour.

But it seems that we don't have the infrastructure, nor can it be built fast enough at any price to keep up with a million new people every year. I understand most Canadians don't even have a family Doctor. And certainly there is no "starter homes" or reasonably priced rental housing that labourers can afford to live, least of all support a family.

 

[DesRicardo]

 

[SchlongConery]

Yes you can. And you will find that the negatives tip the scales massively in their disfavour. You can make that argument about anything, so what? There is no rapid population increase in Canada either. Canada's population is projected to grow at 0.71% for 2024, putting it at 125th in the world. One of the lowest. 2023 was one year when it grew by 3%, again nothing to write home about when the normal growth rates are between 0.1 to 3%. You are blowing things out of proportion.

https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/field/population-growth-rate/country-comparison/

0.71%? 3% this year. What is that in number of housing units?

My math and assumptions may be way off .. so I stand to be corrected.

39,000,000 x 0.03 = 1.17 million people divided by say 4 to a housing unit= 250,000 housing units a year if. you divide it across the entire country. But most immigrants tend to live in the areas where tehy have support networks, formal, familial or cultural. So that means the big cities.

There aren't enough sheets of plywood and nails in Canada to hammer together that many Rio de Janiero favela shanty towns a year.

I'm no social engineer, economist or societal growth expert but I feel that while the pecentages may seem small, a million people is a lot of fucking people! Especially in one year..

 

[Kautilya]

0.71%? 3% this year. What is that in number of housing units?

My math and assumptions may be way off .. so I stand to be corrected.

39,000,000 x 0.03 = 1.17 million people divided by say 4 to a housing unit= 250,000 housing units a year if. you divide it across the entire country. But most immigrants tend to live in the areas where tehy have support networks, formal, familial or cultural. So that means the big cities.

There aren't enough nails in Canada to hammer together that many Rio de Janiero favela shanty towns a year.

It was 3% in 2023 and it was an exception. In 2022 it was 1.8%. In 2024 it is projected to be 0.71%.

Let us take Toronto for example. In 2022, the number of immigrants to Toronto, was 160,000. Which is like 40,000 households. The number of housing starts in Toronto in 2023, was 47,428.

So I think they are doing what they can, so a 2 pronged approach to both increase houses built, and drop immigration - especially students and temp workers will help in the short term. But in the long term, we simply need to up our housing development and the govt. needs to take steps for that. IMO.

 

[southpaw]

so a 2 pronged approach to both increase houses built, and drop immigration - especially students and temp workers will help in the short term. But in the long term ...

The operative word is "drop". So you do agree that immigration levels are too high.

As for the long term, you can accomplish anything over a long enough horizon. We could have robots working 24/7 to build faster housing. We could have an unlimited supply of AI doctors and nurses to bring hospital wait times down to zero.

But until then, prudence is what's required.

 

[Kautilya]

The operative word is "drop". So you do agree that immigration levels are too high.

As for the long term, you can accomplish anything over a long enough horizon. We could have robots working 24/7 to build faster housing. We could have an unlimited supply of AI doctors and nurses to bring hospital wait times down to zero.

But until then, prudence is what's required.

I dont view immigration as high or low. Immigration is just immigration. I view it as a compromise position, where both supply and demand side pressures are addressed. There seems to be a narrative that only demand side pressures matter, which I disagree with.

 

[southpaw]

I dont view immigration as high or low. Immigration is just immigration. I view it as a compromise position, where both supply and demand side pressures are addressed.

Spoken like a true politician. Or a McKinsey consultant.

 

[JohnLarue]

I dont view immigration as high or low. Immigration is just immigration. I view it as a compromise position, where both supply and demand side pressures are addressed. There seems to be a narrative that only demand side pressures matter, which I disagree with.

you are disagreeing the facts of the matter and pretending the supply side can be addressed

real world issues are not solved by ignoring facts and pretending

the supply side can not address the issue
as the Desjardins economists pointed out .''it is not going to happen''
any uptick in housing starts is welcome but it is not going to increase by 152%
a 10 to 20% increase in housing starts would be impressive
152% >>>>>>> 'it is not going to happen''

there is no compromise position. it is physically impossible
in addition continuing to expand the population at an unsustainable pace will cause catastrophic strain on health care and transportation infrastructure

that leaves addressing the demand side to fix the affordability issue

again your solution to a flooded basement is to try and make the basement bigger while still leaving the taps running

the taps need to be turned off

you are not very bright

 

[SchlongConery]

Modular construction small homes. Elon musk lives in one of these

I've looked into the business of small homes on small lots. In local and more remote areas. And smarter, more resourceful people and groups have too.

Certainly we oversize our homes and building lots. That market demand is going tohave to evolve. And it will.

Where to build them is the limiting issue in terms of basic infrastructure like sewerage and water supply. And in cities like Toronto, transit, schools and health care. It becomes truly mind boggling.

We looked into some really nice land in the Kingston-Napanee area for this type of housing development. Very unusal problem was that the bedrock was so close to the surface that the cost of installing sewer lines was astronomical. We did a study on various alternatives with on-site holding tanks and either force main pumping or sucker-trucking on a monthly basis and delivering to the exisiting wastewater treatment plants. THe municipal and governments wanted NOTHING to do with it and the Provincial MoE had a hard NO response too.

It's a much more complex problem than it appears. It is solvable and doable, but it gets more and more expensive.

 

[Kautilya]

you are disagreeing the facts of the matter and pretending the supply side can be addressed

It can be and should be. Stop misinterpreting the one economist who said it wasn't going to happen in 7 years, by copy pasting one phrase from an entire sentence. It does not have to happen in 7 years. It can take longer. But it needs to be fixed regardless.

It is because addressing the supply side is not possible tomorrow, I said, that a 2 pronged approach should be adopted with the focus being on the supply side for the longer term.