The future of housing? Your opinions

oil&gas

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Apr 16, 2002
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Ghawar
...................
But the long term solution is still to build more houses if you dont have enough houses! What else are you going to do? Reduce population by cutting immigration? For how long? So what does that impact look like?
No one has proposed population reduction to be the goal of moderation
of the level of immigration. We don't need to take in more than half of a
million people yearly to arrest population decline.
 

oil&gas

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Ghawar
The issue that needs to be addressed by our immigration policy is
not one of decline or a low growth rate but aging of our population.
 

JohnLarue

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The issue that needs to be addressed by our immigration policy is
not one of decline or a low growth rate but aging of our population.

productivity is what needs to be addressed
it drives our standard of living

immigration can help to address our brutal productivity by bring in people with in demand skills

a policy shift from quantity / volumes/ quotas determined by UN demands to quality to meet Canada's demands
 
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JohnLarue

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That's rich considering your utter and absolute lack of insight into infrastructure, dismissing it as a "supply side issue" as if it just a matter of ordering cutting more trees and planing more lumber.






I missed where anyone claimed "absolutley nothing can be done about it."


I have a hunch you are in the manufacturing side of the automotive industry. If so , or not, you can't build housing like you can ramp up car production. The layers of planning are so complex that I don't know how it ever gets done. Even if houses magically got dropped by helicopters, there is so much infrastructure to build to support it and the people. School boards have to acquire land, paln and build, and staff schools. Hydro, water, sewer, gas, roads etc. The old Buttonville airport was slated for 170 acres of development and the Toawn of Markham and Province of Ontario (rightfully) required the developer to build a new exit and overpass south of 16th Avenue. Hwy 7 and 16th Avenue have been beyond capacity for ten years. You know how much the new iinterchange was going to cost? Clsoe to a billion dollars! Just for that. And the developer said the numbers didn't work so the land sits unused. Some low density industrial development is planned for. The site simply does not make financial sense for housing despite it seeming so obviously well suited.

That infrastructure would not generate any revenue for the developer
that billion dollar price tag would be funded by the developer & town & province correct ?

I can't imagine 170 acres supporting more than 1,500 to 2,000 new homes (correct me if I am wrong)

@ $ 1MM per that is $2 Billion max revenue
subtract the land cost (at market value) , building materials, labour, other development charges and the tie in costs for utility infrastructure (sewage, water, Nat gas & electric ) and the selling agents comp

there wont be anywhere near a $ billion dollars left over for a new exit and overpass
then there is the issue of financing an incremental $ billion dollars on an exit / overpass that won't generate any incremental cash flow for anyone. developer, town or provincial govt
6% on a billion $ loan costs $60 MM per year


so as you say the land sits unused.

developers won't put their money or borrowed money anywhere near a project that does not generate an economic profit and an ROI
 
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Frankfooter

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That's rich considering your utter and absolute lack of insight into infrastructure, dismissing it as a "supply side issue" as if it just a matter of ordering cutting more trees and planing more lumber.






I missed where anyone claimed "absolutley nothing can be done about it."


I have a hunch you are in the manufacturing side of the automotive industry. If so , or not, you can't build housing like you can ramp up car production. The layers of planning are so complex that I don't know how it ever gets done. Even if houses magically got dropped by helicopters, there is so much infrastructure to build to support it and the people. School boards have to acquire land, paln and build, and staff schools. Hydro, water, sewer, gas, roads etc. The old Buttonville airport was slated for 170 acres of development and the Toawn of Markham and Province of Ontario (rightfully) required the developer to build a new exit and overpass south of 16th Avenue. Hwy 7 and 16th Avenue have been beyond capacity for ten years. You know how much the new iinterchange was going to cost? Clsoe to a billion dollars! Just for that. And the developer said the numbers didn't work so the land sits unused. Some low density industrial development is planned for. The site simply does not make financial sense for housing despite it seeming so obviously well suited.
There are about 55,000 condo units in construction right now in Toronto.
 

SchlongConery

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Rambling and copy pasting again.

He makes valid, specific points on the realities of the real life metrics of the supply side that you are dismissing as being anti-immigrant. Just because these complex mmatters are outside your area of expertise, or elementary understanding doesn't mmake him "rambling".

And you are dismissing his posting relevant quotes, statistics and references to experts and their expert analysis as "copy pasting again"?


You remind me of a consulting client who had something in hiis head that was not even aspirational. Not even wishful. It was magical thinking that were contrary to settled physics and settled tax law. But because he was entreprenuerial and otherwise successful, he just kept going at it. I stopped working for him as my time and his money was being wasted. He died on that hill.

I don't want Canada to have to resort to Shanty towns like thr Rio favelas or the slums of Calcutta. NOTHING RACIST-strictly an illustration of what happens when there are too many people to house properly. We already have these starting in encampments, RV's and people sleeping in their cars because they simply cannot afford housing. Normal, mentally healthy working people, stealth camping in converted panel trucks and SUV's.
 

SchlongConery

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That infrastructure would not generate any revenue for the developer
that billion dollar price tag would be funded by the developer & town & province correct ?

I can't imagine 170 acres supporting more than 1,500 to 2,000 new homes (correct me if I am wrong)

@ $ 1MM per that is $2 Billion max revenue
subtract the land cost (at market value) , building materials, labour, other development charges and the tie in costs for utility infrastructure (sewage, water, Nat gas & electric ) and the selling agents comp

there wont be anywhere near a $ billion dollars left over for a new exit and overpass
then there is the issue of financing an incremental $ billion dollars on an exit / overpass that won't generate any incremental cash flow for anyone. developer, town or provincial govt
6% on a billion $ loan costs $60 MM per year


so as you say the land sits unused.

developers won't put their money or borrowed money anywhere near a project that does not generate an economic profit and an ROI

You indeed understand it. And yes, the developer funds all additional infrastructure costs associated with their development. Including capital contributions to future increased wastewater, freshwater, landfill site acquisition, schools, ... everything. And rightly so. Otherwise existing propert owners would be subsidizing new housing. Unofficially, these capital and infrastructure reserve funds get co-mingled with operating budgets through accounting slight of hand in many jurisdictions... just to pay bills.

And the old airport project wasn't even all residential, it was mixed use residential, commercial, light industry, service, enertainment etc. Fact is ALL THE ROADS AND SEWERS in that entire area are already operating beyond their capacity. Imagine the chaos of 3-5 years of infrastructure upgrading, building an entire new interchange on the 404?

And that is just ONE project that, on the surface seems 'easy' and doable.

cadillac Fairview owns it, and the Teachers Pension fund owns Cadillac. Cadillac is, at the best of times, not the sharpest, most innovative group of thinkers. But they know how to buy stuff and spend money.
 

SchlongConery

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There are about 55,000 condo units in construction right now in Toronto.
Mostly one bedrooms. And at what price? How much can a couple making $120k afford? How about a family of 3-4 new immigrants just startiing out?

I'm all for immigration. But it has to be congruent with the ability to absorb them into society and the economy. Yes, they generate income and fill jobs, but fewer business' can start with wages needing to be so high to simply earn a livable income.

A million more people have no where to stay.
 

SchlongConery

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It is your culture. You come from there.

And saying we should build more houses is indeed an Indian thing...I guess? Those are just rural houses built via a govt. program. Not counting the urban ones. May be Canada can learn a thing or two from the Indian govt. Nothing wrong with that!

Record 5.28 million houses built under rural housing scheme in FY23
Proposed scheme.

And building a simple house in a hot or temperate climate with differing standards of sewer, water etc is easy. Try building in rural Canada where the ground freezes 2-5 feet down every year.

And yes, if the gov't of Canada wants to pay for 40-90% of the cost, like India is promising, I'll start building again! i'll hire every Indian I can get permission to bring here.

But you do realize that gov't already spends 30% or so more than they collect in tax revenue already. Can we afford to pay for housing everyone? I already have to earn $250 to spend $100 after I pay the various taxes.
 

SchlongConery

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He makes ONE point. That an economist from Desjardins has said that by 2030, we will not build 3.8M extra homes, over the 2.3M that we have capacity for. But he extrapolates that to say that at no point in the future, is that fixable - EVER. PERIOD. He is not discussing anything complex. He is repeating one article he read.

I already addressed his point by saying, we do not have to FIX anything by 2030, but we can take steps be on the right track to fix it long term by addressing demand and supply - both, not one, but both - which is what experts say as well.

And then further down the line actually goes on to claim that I want less white people in the country which is why am against cutting immigration - when I have already said I support cutting students and temp workers! Aka the great white replacement theory. LOL. So excuse me if I don't accept this criticism or call Larue's posts "rambling and copy posting".

I understand you may have professional experience in building, per your post earlier but the following statements are true:

a) We need immigration and population growth, due to an aging country.
b) We do not have enough houses and we dont nearly build enough, and infact build less than we did 50 years ago, when the population was half of what it is today.

So the long term solution has to be to build more houses. What else do you think we should do (or can do?), where economy, productivity, labor shortages, social services, pensions AND housing are all addressed, other than take steps to somehow build more housing to care for a growing population?

I don't know the answers. I hate to admit that I only know the problems.

If I was King I'd first invest in small local nuclear energy stations. With low cost energy, you can address a lot of the other issues related to installing waste and freshwater treament plants. I'd also try to change the thinking of people towards accepting smaller, less magazine-worthy living spaces. I haven''t heard of a house or condo being built without granite countertops in decades ffs.

Anyways, I'm tired and cranky. Now I know how you guys feel when you change a bunch of shit around to make room for a specific incall appointment and then it gets fucked up by a booker who doesn't know what is going on, but insists they do. 🤷‍♂️ G'night all
 

SchlongConery

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However you should learn from any govt. scheme or move that can be replicated in Canada, atleast to a certain extent, to resolve our housing crisis.

You really âre new to Canada!

The only gov't scheme that will do anything but fuck things up worse in housing is GETTING THE FUCK OUTTA THE WAY!

You want the gov't paid construction workers demanding to work from home and refusing to come to the job site for more than 2-3 days a week?!? lol
 

Frankfooter

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Mostly one bedrooms. And at what price? How much can a couple making $120k afford? How about a family of 3-4 new immigrants just startiing out?

I'm all for immigration. But it has to be congruent with the ability to absorb them into society and the economy. Yes, they generate income and fill jobs, but fewer business' can start with wages needing to be so high to simply earn a livable income.

A million more people have no where to stay.
Which is exactly what you'd think immigrants would be looking for, they aren't coming with families generally.
We need apartments, not suburban houses. Condos are close.

Toronto is doing about 100 new condo buildings a year, that's less land and lower resources.
Water we have, sewage we can deal with.

Building anything on the greenbelt is the problem, that's some of the best farmland in Canada.
Suburbia takes way more resources, more new services, more roads, more congestion.
Condos and apartment buildings we can do.
 
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Frankfooter

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Pack everyone in like sardines, why don't you?

We can have free -range chickens, but the humans must live in pens.
You mean like in NY, London or the EU?
Housing is too expensive for immigrants and the younger.
So build smaller and cheaper units so they can enter the market.
 

Frankfooter

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SchlongConery

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Jalimon was talking about govt. funded programs in Europe working. Why cant our govt. do that here? Or atleast explore the possibility?

Europe is a completely different world than Canada in terms of housing, government and taxation.

Various govt housing programs have been proposed, tried and all end up becoming a scandal and/or major fuckup and ineffective.

But if you have a specific idea, feel free to share it.
 
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Frankfooter

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No, but everyone doesn't have to live in an urban jungle either. They should have a choice.

Humans did not evolve in close quarters. Look at uncontacted tribes. How dense are their settlements? How much territory do they cover?
Most of the work is downtown.
So you have rentals, small condos and ways to move up the system to eventually buying something for a family.

In the UK and EU people live happily with less space and more public interaction.
The US and Canada are weird that way.
 

JohnLarue

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A concise explanation of Leftist ideology.
Apparently they do not know the difference between right and wrong
Kautilya values both right and wrong the same ( as unbelievable as that may sound , that is what he stated)
This enables him to apply his pretzel logic to justify any loonie left narrative

All children are taught there is a difference between right and wrong.
most learn this concept..........not Kautilya
now there is committed ideologue
 
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