Turkey downs Russian plane over Syria

Aardvark154

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Then there will be dead US, UK, or French airmen.
and Turkey will be a pariah with with its erstwhile allies (who will not be providing further armaments).

Turkey will also I believe find that although the West regards Russia as far from perfect, and despises V.V. Putin, it is also far from being the Soviet state and given the choice between Russian Orthodoxy and Erdogan's increasingly Islamist Turkey. . . .
 

FAST

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and Turkey will be a pariah with with its erstwhile allies (who will not be providing further armaments).

Turkey will also I believe find that although the West regards Russia as far from perfect, and despises V.V. Putin, it is also far from being the Soviet state and given the choice between Russian Orthodoxy and Erdogan's increasingly Islamist Turkey. . . .
YEP,...that's the inevitable way it will evolve,...or more correctly as far as Turkey goes,...devolve.

FAST
 

fuji

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and Turkey will be a pariah with with its erstwhile allies (who will not be providing further armaments).

Turkey will also I believe find that although the West regards Russia as far from perfect, and despises V.V. Putin, it is also far from being the Soviet state and given the choice between Russian Orthodoxy and Erdogan's increasingly Islamist Turkey. . . .
And you think Turkey will prioritize the feelings of western editorial writers over its interests in Syria?

Again, I bet that Turkey would have played ball if Russia's supreme leader had approached them, instead of bombing their people. But now that the Russian despot has ordered the cluster bombing of Turkish civilians my guess is that the thinking in Ankara is "fuck you Vlad".

Turkey will make the required public statements, to mollify the editorialists, and then it will supply the Turkmen rebels and whoever else with whatever they need to kill Russians.
 

GPIDEAL

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You got the name "Jesus" and the book of "Revelations" in the same sentence, when did you ever think you'll see those two together again?


Get rid of religion (and their followers) and a lot of the problems are gone.
It was a holy exclamation about armaggedon ha ha.
 

Aardvark154

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Turkey seems to control the only access to the Black Sea?
The Montreux Convention Regarding the Regime of the Straits of 1936 controls passage through "the Turkish Straits."
Article two provides "In time of peace, merchant vessels shall enjoy complete freedom of passage and navigation in the Straits, by day and by night, under any flag with any kind of cargo."

The passage of civil aircraft is also permitted along routes set by Turkey.

There are further provisions relating to the passage of warships, with those of Black Sea states (needless to say including Russia) given far greater leeway than those of non-Black Sea states

http://sam.baskent.edu.tr/belge/Montreux_ENG.pdf

So what does this mean, among other things: Russian aircraft can be crated up and shipped on merchant or Naval Auxiliary vessels through the straits to Syria (likewise on transport aircraft), likewise Russian warships can transit the straits (in either direction). All this goes on until either Turkey or Russia declares War on the other.

Of course this totally ignores Russian Aircraft transiting Iranian and Iraqi airspace to go around Turkey.
 

GPIDEAL

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Then there will be dead US, UK, or French airmen.

That doesn't alter the point: Turkey's long border with Syria and its deep connection to people in the country make Turkey MUCH better able to project force into Syria then Russia.

Putin really fucked up turning Turkey into an enemy. Pretty much guarantees a bad outcome for Russia. Had Vlad been less of an arrogant bully he would have cooperated with the Turks and avoided bombing their civilians.

Now he is fucked. He can pound on his chest, put tank columns and anti air missiles in Syria, but Turkey will fight a proxy war and make him bleed and eventually Russian families will get sick of having to bring home their kids in pine boxes.

Fuji, when you say the Russians bombed Turkish civilians, do you mean inside Turkey or their cousins inside the Syrian border?
 

fuji

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Fuji, when you say the Russians bombed Turkish civilians, do you mean inside Turkey or their cousins inside the Syrian border?
Ethnic Turks in Syria.

Note that Vlad previously justified his military interventions in states neighboring Russia by saying he was obliged to protect ethnic Russians there.
 

Aardvark154

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And you think Turkey will prioritize the feelings of western editorial writers over its interests in Syria?
Given that the major players in NATO are democracies, and the political pressure that electorates apply does influence government action. Turkey would be wise to give heed to "the feelings of western editorial writers" lest it find itself without the armaments it needs. It can't even really turn to the PRC, since the PRC is far more concerned about good relations with Russia than it is about Turkey.
 

fuji

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Given that the major players in NATO are democracies, and the political pressure that electorates apply does influence government action. Turkey would be wise to give heed to "the feelings of western editorial writers" lest it find itself without the armaments it needs. It can't even really turn to the PRC, since the PRC is far more concerned about good relations with Russia than it is about Turkey.
NATO needs Turkey too, it is strategically important. Few good airbases left for the US in those parts. My guess is that criticism of Turkey will be largely symbolic.
 

nottyboi

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You got the name "Jesus" and the book of "Revelations" in the same sentence, when did you ever think you'll see those two together again?


Get rid of religion (and their followers) and a lot of the problems are gone.
Religions are just a social construct to define a system of values. It will always be replaced by something. For example communism tried to replace it with nationalism etc. Just like religion, any value system will be manipulated by its leaders to create the same outcomes we see with conflict based on religion.
 

nottyboi

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Given that the major players in NATO are democracies, and the political pressure that electorates apply does influence government action. Turkey would be wise to give heed to "the feelings of western editorial writers" lest it find itself without the armaments it needs. It can't even really turn to the PRC, since the PRC is far more concerned about good relations with Russia than it is about Turkey.
Actually China is already selling arms to Turkey, and Russia is not to worried about Chinese arms as they are mostly inferior.
 

nottyboi

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Sorry but Putin didn't claim be attacking civilians engaged in the oil trade. He lied and said he was attacking ISIL fighters. He got caught lying and nothing he says can be trusted. It is doubtful that this oil trade claim of true, he was probably just attacking any random Turkmen civilian and not singling out oil traders.

What you are doing now is attempting to justify the attacks on civilians he was actually engaged in and saying it is OK because they are "fuck heads". This is just like when you claimed it was OK for Russia to ethnically cleanse Ingush civilians because they were " shit heads ".

You seem to think you can justify Russian war crime by insulting the victims.
Hmm I did not know you spoke fluent Russian. Putin sees all the anti Assad groups, with few exceptions, to be part of ISIL and in that perception he is 100% correct. They are a fluid mass and fighters often switch sides and alliances are continually changing. He has been pretty clear about where his alliances lie. He has made his intentions pretty clear that the goal is to prop up Assad. Only a chimpanzee like you would not understand what that means. To that point he has clearly stated his endgame which is a HELL Of a lot more then any of the other actors have said about their plans for Syria.
 

nottyboi

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They don't need to. They only need to give anti aircraft missiles to insurgents in Syria, and allow their border to be a supply line to those actually killing the Russians, ensuring that over time lots of Russians get killed.
WOW you must be a Turkish general. And how is Turkey going to ensure those nutbars do not start shooting down French/American/British planes? And what if Russia starts funding PKK in retaliation or opens corridors to Turkey for ISIS as it pounds them driving the ISIS state to expand into Turkey? There are so many thing the Russians can do to fuck Turkey up indirectly, its kinda ironic this is all happening in US thanksgiving season.
 

fuji

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Hmm I did not know you spoke fluent Russian. Putin sees all the anti Assad groups, with few exceptions, to be part of ISIL and in that perception he is 100% correct.
Nice try lying, and nice try defending Putin your god king, but no. They are not all part of ISIL. Far from it. Many of the forces Putin has bombed are fighting ISIS, and Putin knows that.
 

nottyboi

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This system seems to be more for hitting bombers at long range or maybe surveillance planes.

Wonder if the SA-21 would be effective against fighter jets at long range when the jet knows the missile is coming. Any missile fired in that area would be seen and tracked. The small jets could deploy countermeasures and drop to the ground.

Turkey seems to control the only access to the Black Sea?
The S400 can shoot a plane down over Tel Aviv in about 110 seconds when launched from Damascus. It is not a system to be fucked around with. The missiles can turn at more then 20G which means it can out maneuver any plane. The Russian AA missiles also have reaction maneuvering rockets which allow the missile to move sideways, it is a nasty piece of work and I would not want to be on the pointy end of it.
 

nottyboi

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Nice try lying, and nice try defending Putin your god king, but no. They are not all part of ISIL. Far from it. Many of the forces Putin has bombed are fighting ISIS, and Putin knows that.
So what, he is Assads ally. He has said that quite clearly. The ones that focus on fighting ISIS and agree to not attack Syrian forces get assistance, and a seat at the table in the political process. The ones that do not agree to this get martyrdom. It is a fair deal. The Turkmen seem to want their 70 virgins and Putin will do his best to arrange this. Securing the border with Turkey is critical to stopping the influx of fighters and weapons. Putin will now fling the full weight of his forces in this area. Even more to annoy the Turks. The message will be, kill one Russian and we will kill 1000 Turkmen. It is the way the Russians operate. It is the way the Americans operate as well, look at their kill ratios in all their wars and you will see this.
 

GPIDEAL

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NATO views it with concern as Russia's best Anti-Aircraft Missile System

Google SA-21 Growler

____________

Ah I see that Nottyboi already replied to this.

The stats say an altitude of up to 30 km or 10,000 feet. But 30 KM is 18,000 feet. Or is it less than 30 KM?
 

fuji

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So what, he is Assads ally. He has said that quite clearly.
So he has been caught blatantly lying, and as a result nothing he or Russia says can be trusted at all. He was not targeting ISIS. He lied.

And you are making a fool of yourself justifying the Russian war crimes. Calling the civilians he is murdering "fuck heads" or "shit heads" does not justify or excuse the Russian war crimes that Turkey was responding to.
 

fuji

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The message will be, kill one Russian and we will kill 1000 Turkmen. It is the way the Russians operate.
Are you defending that? On the Israel threads you blew a gasket every time Israel accidentally killed a civilian despite best efforts to avoid doing so. Here you are openly calling for a thousand intentional civilian deaths in retribution for each soldier killed.

You are a hypocrite, and a totally immoral hypocrite, and your Russian godking is a proven liar.
 
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