Why Warming Oceans Matter
- Thread starter niniveh
- Start date
Steven Guilbeault perhaps the only minister with a criminal record
was indeed once a climate lunatic and an uncompromising zealot.
Trudeau, seeing that everyone has a price and everyone can be
bought, reformed him by putting him on his gravy train. He obviously
has done a good job for Trudeau as the climate policy spinner of his
administration aka Minister of Environment and Climate Change--he
came out intact from Trudeau's cabinet shuffle.
Now it is up to climate activists to retrieve Guibeault's CN Tower banner
to hang it up somewhere to raise public awareness of the climate crisis.
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see post # 58
this bay does not get a lot of flow through it
its more like a stagnate pond than representative of the ocean
Drilling down on 101 degree water temperature recording near the Florida Keys. What we know
The 101.1 degree water temperature recorded at Manatee Bay on July 24 wasn't a record for that site. The record was set in 2017.
www.news-press.com
To say prediction of this thing called AMOC to high certainty is tricky
seems a gross understatement.
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Predictability of Decadal Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Variations
Florian Sévellec and Bablu Sinha
Sep 2018
Summary and Keywords
The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a large, basin-scale circulation located in the Atlantic Ocean that transports climatically important quantities of heat northward. It can be described schematically as a northward flow in the warm upper ocean and a southward return flow at depth in much colder water. The heat capacity of alayer of 2 m of seawater is equivalent to that of the entire atmosphere; therefore, ocean heat content dominates Earth’s energy storage. For this reason and because of the AMOC’s typically slow decadal variations, the AMOC regulates North Atlantic climate andcontributes to the relatively mild climate of Europe. Hence, predicting AMOC variationsis crucial for predicting climate variations in regions bordering the North Atlantic.Similar to weather predictions, climate predictions are based on numerical simulations of the climate system. However, providing accurate predictions on such long timescales is far from straightforward. Even in a perfect model approach, where biases between numerical models and reality are ignored, the chaotic nature of AMOC variability (i.e.,high sensitivity to initial conditions) is a significant source of uncertainty, limiting its accurate prediction.
Predictability studies focus on factors determining our ability to predict the AMOC ratherthan actual predictions. To this end, processes affecting AMOC predictability can be separated into two categories: processes acting as a source of predictability (periodic harmonic oscillations, for instance) and processes acting as a source of uncertainty (smallerrors that grow and significantly modify the outcome of numerical simulations). To understand the former category, harmonic modes of variability or precursors of AMOC variations are identified. On the other hand, in a perfect model approach, the sources of uncertainty are characterized by the spread of numerical simulations differentiated by the application of small differences to their initial conditions. Two alternative and complementary frameworks have arisen to investigate this spread. The pragmatic framework corresponds to performing an ensemble of simulations, by imposing a randomly chosen small error on the initial conditions of individual simulations. This allows a probabilistic approach and to statistically characterize the importance of the initial condition by evaluating the spread of the ensemble. The theoretical framework uses stability analysis to identify small perturbations to the initial conditions, which are conducive to significant disruption of the AMOC.
Beyond these difficulties in assessing the predictability, decadal prediction systems have been developed and tested through a range of hindcasts. The inherent difficulties ofoperational forecasts span from developing efficient initialization methods to setting accurate radiative forcing to correcting for model drift and bias, all these improvements being estimated and validated through a range of specifically designed skill metrics.
Introduction
In the context of the global warming, there is a growing societal demand to predict changes on interannual to decadal timescales to inform mitigation and adaptation strategy (IPCC, 2013). Whereas on multidecadal timescales the long secular warmingtrend dominates the global average surface atmospheric temperature (SAT), oninterannual to decadal timescales, “internal” or “intrinsic” variability, generated from the internal dynamics of the climate system rather than external forcing, is the mostimportant factor (more than 80% of the total variance for 10-year timescales; Figure1,left). This result has also been suggested by Hawkins and Sutton (2009B) and Meehl et al.(2009), for instance, and implies that an accurate prediction of climate changes on interannual to decadal timescales is not strongly dependent on CO2 emission scenarios,but on “natural” variability of the climate system.
If one focuses on internal variability for decadal and longer timescales, the surface temperature shows an intensified level ofvariability in the NorthAtlantic, and in particularin the Nordic Seas (Figure1, right). This signature istypical of changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation(AMOC) on decadal timescales (Drijfhout,2015; Vellinga & Wood,2002). Also, AMOC changes have been shownto lead to, or at least to beconcomitant with, cooling of the North Atlantic ocean surface (Drijfhout, van Oldenborgh,& Cimatoribus, 2012; Rahmstorf et al., 2015). So predicting AMOC variations is of firstorder importance for predicting the North Atlantic surface temperature.
....................................................................................................................
................................................................................................................
Summary and Conclusions
In our changing climate, there is an increasing societal demand to predict climatic variations for well-planned mitigation and cost-efficient adaptation. On interannual to decadal timescales, accurate prediction of global atmospheric temperature comes from the correct estimation of the internal variability, rather than the exact future CO2 emission pathway (Figure 1, left). On timescales longer than decades, the main signature of internal variability is located in the North Atlantic region (Figure1, right), with apattern typical of SAT variations associated with AMOC changes (Drijfhout, 2015). Hence,decadal AMOC variations appear to be a key factor for prediction of the atmospheric temperature on decadal timescales. From a physical point of view, because of its northward heat transport, the AMOC is central to the climatic system of the NorthAtlantic and its neighboring regions. This article describes and discusses state-of-the-art knowledge on the decadal variability and predictability of this large-scale ocean circulation.
Two paradigms (stochastic and deterministic) explain the difficulty of predicting the climate system. For both paradigms, an idealized model is used to illustrate how external or internal processes lead to uncertainty in climate prediction. As always, in the real climate system, the truth lies in the middle. This means that both sources of uncertainty limit our ability to predict the climate on decadal timescales.
There are both contributing and limiting factors for decadal predictability of the AMOC.Contributing factors can be divided into two types: modes of variability and precursors.The former suggests that harmonic variations, that recur with a well-established period,contribute to accurate predictions. In the same manner, determining precursors, andusing them as early warning signals for AMOC changes increases our ability to predictthe system. In addition, the mechanisms that lead to uncertainty in climate predictio
nhave been described through both theoretical and pragmatic investigations.
Finally, regarding the state of the art of AMOC prediction on interannual to decadaltimescales, the article addresses decadal prediction systems and the use of dataassimilation to accurately constrain the initial conditions. The latter induces a currentchallenge for prediction systems. Indeed, because of the inherent mismatch between thenatural states of the models used for prediction and the (mostly oceanic) observationsused to constrain their initial conditions, there are strong drifts during prediction thatneed to be corrected. The drifts are linked to the recovery of numerical models from theirobservation-constrained attractor to their inherent attractor during the unconstrainedprediction phase. The article also includes a brief review of future developments inclimate prediction, such as new techniques to avoid strong drifts, and also the extensionof the scope of predictions to other climatically relevant variables, such as sea ice, storm activity, and precipitation over land.
The topic of predictability is extremely dense and only a few methods are described here.For example, there is another method that diagnoses predictability based on long model control simulations (see Branstator & Teng, 2012, 2014; DelSole & Tipett, 2009). This method is particularly efficient since it does not require new simulations and takes advantage of already existing ones. However, the assumption that the level of variabilityis constant is central to the method and remains an inherent shortcoming in a changingclimate. Another existing method is the best analogues approach, which, after identifying past climate states close to the current one, assesses the likely future evolution of the climate based on typical outcomes of the close climate states (Barnett & Preisendorfer,1978). On a more theoretical level, Pullback Attractor (Chekroun et al., 2010; Ghil et al.,2008; Sévellec & Fedorov, 2015B; Pierini et al., 2016) and Transfer Operator (Tantet etal., 2015) methods, although they have not yet been applied to state-of-the-art climate models, already demonstrate promising results for the characterization of predictability. AMOC predictability is intrinsically linked to climate predictability on decadal timescales.However, the former remains poorly quantitatively assessed, with as yet no consensus inthe scientific community. Since the technical expertise required for accurate quantitative prediction goes beyond the confines of climate science, significant advancements are likely to come from future methodological and/or computational-power breakthroughs.
...........................................
hal.science
seems a gross understatement.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Predictability of Decadal Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Variations
Florian Sévellec and Bablu Sinha
Sep 2018
Summary and Keywords
The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a large, basin-scale circulation located in the Atlantic Ocean that transports climatically important quantities of heat northward. It can be described schematically as a northward flow in the warm upper ocean and a southward return flow at depth in much colder water. The heat capacity of alayer of 2 m of seawater is equivalent to that of the entire atmosphere; therefore, ocean heat content dominates Earth’s energy storage. For this reason and because of the AMOC’s typically slow decadal variations, the AMOC regulates North Atlantic climate andcontributes to the relatively mild climate of Europe. Hence, predicting AMOC variationsis crucial for predicting climate variations in regions bordering the North Atlantic.Similar to weather predictions, climate predictions are based on numerical simulations of the climate system. However, providing accurate predictions on such long timescales is far from straightforward. Even in a perfect model approach, where biases between numerical models and reality are ignored, the chaotic nature of AMOC variability (i.e.,high sensitivity to initial conditions) is a significant source of uncertainty, limiting its accurate prediction.
Predictability studies focus on factors determining our ability to predict the AMOC ratherthan actual predictions. To this end, processes affecting AMOC predictability can be separated into two categories: processes acting as a source of predictability (periodic harmonic oscillations, for instance) and processes acting as a source of uncertainty (smallerrors that grow and significantly modify the outcome of numerical simulations). To understand the former category, harmonic modes of variability or precursors of AMOC variations are identified. On the other hand, in a perfect model approach, the sources of uncertainty are characterized by the spread of numerical simulations differentiated by the application of small differences to their initial conditions. Two alternative and complementary frameworks have arisen to investigate this spread. The pragmatic framework corresponds to performing an ensemble of simulations, by imposing a randomly chosen small error on the initial conditions of individual simulations. This allows a probabilistic approach and to statistically characterize the importance of the initial condition by evaluating the spread of the ensemble. The theoretical framework uses stability analysis to identify small perturbations to the initial conditions, which are conducive to significant disruption of the AMOC.
Beyond these difficulties in assessing the predictability, decadal prediction systems have been developed and tested through a range of hindcasts. The inherent difficulties ofoperational forecasts span from developing efficient initialization methods to setting accurate radiative forcing to correcting for model drift and bias, all these improvements being estimated and validated through a range of specifically designed skill metrics.
Introduction
In the context of the global warming, there is a growing societal demand to predict changes on interannual to decadal timescales to inform mitigation and adaptation strategy (IPCC, 2013). Whereas on multidecadal timescales the long secular warmingtrend dominates the global average surface atmospheric temperature (SAT), oninterannual to decadal timescales, “internal” or “intrinsic” variability, generated from the internal dynamics of the climate system rather than external forcing, is the mostimportant factor (more than 80% of the total variance for 10-year timescales; Figure1,left). This result has also been suggested by Hawkins and Sutton (2009B) and Meehl et al.(2009), for instance, and implies that an accurate prediction of climate changes on interannual to decadal timescales is not strongly dependent on CO2 emission scenarios,but on “natural” variability of the climate system.
If one focuses on internal variability for decadal and longer timescales, the surface temperature shows an intensified level ofvariability in the NorthAtlantic, and in particularin the Nordic Seas (Figure1, right). This signature istypical of changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation(AMOC) on decadal timescales (Drijfhout,2015; Vellinga & Wood,2002). Also, AMOC changes have been shownto lead to, or at least to beconcomitant with, cooling of the North Atlantic ocean surface (Drijfhout, van Oldenborgh,& Cimatoribus, 2012; Rahmstorf et al., 2015). So predicting AMOC variations is of firstorder importance for predicting the North Atlantic surface temperature.
....................................................................................................................
................................................................................................................
Summary and Conclusions
In our changing climate, there is an increasing societal demand to predict climatic variations for well-planned mitigation and cost-efficient adaptation. On interannual to decadal timescales, accurate prediction of global atmospheric temperature comes from the correct estimation of the internal variability, rather than the exact future CO2 emission pathway (Figure 1, left). On timescales longer than decades, the main signature of internal variability is located in the North Atlantic region (Figure1, right), with apattern typical of SAT variations associated with AMOC changes (Drijfhout, 2015). Hence,decadal AMOC variations appear to be a key factor for prediction of the atmospheric temperature on decadal timescales. From a physical point of view, because of its northward heat transport, the AMOC is central to the climatic system of the NorthAtlantic and its neighboring regions. This article describes and discusses state-of-the-art knowledge on the decadal variability and predictability of this large-scale ocean circulation.
Two paradigms (stochastic and deterministic) explain the difficulty of predicting the climate system. For both paradigms, an idealized model is used to illustrate how external or internal processes lead to uncertainty in climate prediction. As always, in the real climate system, the truth lies in the middle. This means that both sources of uncertainty limit our ability to predict the climate on decadal timescales.
There are both contributing and limiting factors for decadal predictability of the AMOC.Contributing factors can be divided into two types: modes of variability and precursors.The former suggests that harmonic variations, that recur with a well-established period,contribute to accurate predictions. In the same manner, determining precursors, andusing them as early warning signals for AMOC changes increases our ability to predictthe system. In addition, the mechanisms that lead to uncertainty in climate predictio
nhave been described through both theoretical and pragmatic investigations.
Finally, regarding the state of the art of AMOC prediction on interannual to decadaltimescales, the article addresses decadal prediction systems and the use of dataassimilation to accurately constrain the initial conditions. The latter induces a currentchallenge for prediction systems. Indeed, because of the inherent mismatch between thenatural states of the models used for prediction and the (mostly oceanic) observationsused to constrain their initial conditions, there are strong drifts during prediction thatneed to be corrected. The drifts are linked to the recovery of numerical models from theirobservation-constrained attractor to their inherent attractor during the unconstrainedprediction phase. The article also includes a brief review of future developments inclimate prediction, such as new techniques to avoid strong drifts, and also the extensionof the scope of predictions to other climatically relevant variables, such as sea ice, storm activity, and precipitation over land.
The topic of predictability is extremely dense and only a few methods are described here.For example, there is another method that diagnoses predictability based on long model control simulations (see Branstator & Teng, 2012, 2014; DelSole & Tipett, 2009). This method is particularly efficient since it does not require new simulations and takes advantage of already existing ones. However, the assumption that the level of variabilityis constant is central to the method and remains an inherent shortcoming in a changingclimate. Another existing method is the best analogues approach, which, after identifying past climate states close to the current one, assesses the likely future evolution of the climate based on typical outcomes of the close climate states (Barnett & Preisendorfer,1978). On a more theoretical level, Pullback Attractor (Chekroun et al., 2010; Ghil et al.,2008; Sévellec & Fedorov, 2015B; Pierini et al., 2016) and Transfer Operator (Tantet etal., 2015) methods, although they have not yet been applied to state-of-the-art climate models, already demonstrate promising results for the characterization of predictability. AMOC predictability is intrinsically linked to climate predictability on decadal timescales.However, the former remains poorly quantitatively assessed, with as yet no consensus inthe scientific community. Since the technical expertise required for accurate quantitative prediction goes beyond the confines of climate science, significant advancements are likely to come from future methodological and/or computational-power breakthroughs.
...........................................
Predictability of Decadal Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Variations
and Keywords The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a large, basin-scale circulation located in the Atlantic Ocean that transports climatically important quantities of heat northward. It can be described schematically as a northward flow in the warm upper ocean and a southward...
hal.science
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Unpopular like flat earthers?
That's closer, except the flat earthers are just entertaining morons instead of being wackos financed by the trillion dollar oil industry profits.
Mr Science strikes again.
Dunning Kruger award winning theories that would get larue laughed out of high school science classes and made a mockery of in university.
This is summary of larue's article on the crazy sea temps:see post # 58
this bay does not get a lot of flow through it
its more like a stagnate pond than representative of the ocean
.Drilling down on 101 degree water temperature recording near the Florida Keys. What we know
The 101.1 degree water temperature recorded at Manatee Bay on July 24 wasn't a record for that site. The record was set in 2017.
View attachment 248800
What will it take to cool the water temperatures in Florida?
Good news. What goes up, must come down. Eventually the coastal water will cool off, but there's still lots of summer to go.
Its an article written for morons.
Meanwhile the rest of the world is now talking tipping points.
Coral reef bleaching - will we lose all reefs this year?
Arctic ice melt - very close to happening
Antarctic ice melt - massive changes this year
AMOC shutdown - now a very likely possibility way too soon
The oil industry predicted massive climate change as a result of pushing their products 50 years ago.
Exxon disputed climate findings for years. Its scientists knew better.
you are delusional if you believe mankind can control our constantly evolving climate
The way we ended acid rain by controlling sulphur emissions?
The way we ended the ozone hole by listening to scientists and changing coolants?
You have to be moronic to not look around the world and see that humanity is changing the climate, not 'controlling' it.
Nobody says we can control it, just change it.
Johnny LaRue what a load of Kaka, have you never heard of the Gulf Stream?
Unlike the Caribbean, the Gulf of Mexico is a deep body of water, with average depth of 5000 ft and over. This makes the Gulf perfect for the generation of currents. This brings nutrients to the Florida Keys that make it rich for fishing. The area from The Everglades to Havana Cuba is shallow, suffocating air temperatures are causing a critical fulcrum of the Gulf Stream to boil. That's a looming disaster for Florida, with Northern Europe seeing a weakening of the moderating Gulf Stream. The UK, apart from other problems, could be hit with -30 C temperatures in coming winters.
Johnny LaRue would you eat Shark Girl's ass as much as I want to?
2022 Nobel Prize Winner: “Climate Science has Metastasised into … Pseudoscience”
2022 Nobel Prize Winner: “Climate Science has Metastasised into … Pseudoscience” • Watts Up With That?
Nobel Laureate Silenced - CO2 Coalition
if you are confident in your scientific hypothesis there is no need to cancel anyone
climate science has turned into pseudoscience
even worse are the socialist/ communist who view the climate change narrative as the opportunity to seize the political power which has been (wisely) denied them via the ballot box
2022 Nobel Prize Winner: “Climate Science has Metastasised into … Pseudoscience” • Watts Up With That?
shortly after stating his position on climate pseudoscience Dr. John F. Clauser, was cancelled by the IMF
Nobel Laureate Silenced - CO2 Coalition
if you are confident in your scientific hypothesis there is no need to cancel anyone
climate science has turned into pseudoscience
even worse are the socialist/ communist who view the climate change narrative as the opportunity to seize the political power which has been (wisely) denied them via the ballot box
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did you not read the article ?
record water temperatures in florida not unprecedented (news-press.com)
"Keep in mind that the observations in Manatee bay are in shallow water in a closed off cove with dark seagrass on the bottom," Zierden said. "I would not consider them a "sea surface temperature", as that implies open ocean."
like i said
this bay does not get a lot of flow through it its more like a stagnate pond than representative of the ocean
why is it that climate alarmists
- are incapable of thinking for themselves ?
- need everything repeated for them ?
45% of the world's oceans are experiencing record heat at the same time.did you not read the article ?
record water temperatures in florida not unprecedented (news-press.com)
"Keep in mind that the observations in Manatee bay are in shallow water in a closed off cove with dark seagrass on the bottom," Zierden said. "I would not consider them a "sea surface temperature", as that implies open ocean."
like i said
this bay does not get a lot of flow through it its more like a stagnate pond than representative of the ocean
why is it that climate alarmists
- are incapable of thinking for themselves ?
- need everything repeated for them ?
This isn't a local problem.
We are hitting wet bulb danger temps on shore now.
When nothing else works, blame the pinko commies. Where have we heard that one already.
"even worse are the socialist/ communist who view the climate change narrative as the opportunity to seize the political power which has been (wisely) denied them via the ballot box"
the truth really hurts you, doesn't it comrade?
more and more people are waking up to the fact the climate change narrative is intentionally misleading
this is typical
Ocean In Parts Of Florida Hits Hot Tub Temperatures | HuffPost Impact
Earlier this week, sea surface temperatures reached as high as 101.2 degrees Fahrenheit (38.4 degrees Celsius) around the state’s southern tip in Manatee Bay, according to the National Weather Service
however the truth of the matter is
record water temperatures in florida not unprecedented (news-press.com)
"Keep in mind that the observations in Manatee bay are in shallow water in a closed off cove with dark seagrass on the bottom," Zierden said. "I would not consider them a "sea surface temperature", as that implies open ocean."
history has shown us the pinko commies / socialists have no qualms about misleading the public
it is not my fault you support a failed ideology
