I was suggesting probability of any of the 4 options to materialize
is low.
1.
How probable George Bush could have pulled off regime change in
Baghdad by not invading Iraq?
2.
Why would Putin feel obliged to pay war reparation before
Ukraine soldiers ventured into Russian territory. I guess it is
possible Putin would be so scared he might agree to pay
before Zelensky reached Moscow though. I do think this
is a tad more probable than Zelensky marching into Moscow.
3.
What is the chance of making an arrest of Putin outside
Russia on the warrant issued by Hague court? I know
they can capture Putin while he is vacationing in some
NATO member state so I do consider the odds of this
is better than Ukraine marching into Moscow like 2.
4.
I understand it is up to Zelensky to decide when he is to
stop fighting in the battlefield. But that won't make him the
boss of the proxy war he is fighting. It is up to Biden and
NATO to decide the level of support to Ukraine and when
the support is to end.
What you actually said
I do reckon the probability of that to happen could be a tad
smaller than what Biden and NATO may accomplish:
1) Regime change in Moscow.
2) Putin paying war reparation.
3) Putin arrested by Hague Court and tried for war crime.
4) Ukrainians would be the only ones who decide when the war ends
and they would have the west’s support until then.
1: Can happen with no intentional effort on NATO's part. He could be overthrown just by having a bad show in the Ukraine. Just a side effect of defending Ukraine. However much like Pakistan and their nukes, this probably isn't a result that anyone in the west is seeking [at least not the people at the adult table] due to the risks of nukes going walkabouts. Great if he could be tossed in favor of a more moderate person, but if a more extreme person takes over or worse some sort of breakdown, that could be a bad day.
2: Considering how many assets have been frozen this could be done regardless of if Poutine agrees or not, there are some western legal issues that would have to be addressed [or much like the US Constiution just ignored] but still, it can be achieved regardless of war outcome.
3: Yeah 3 ain't gonna happen, it's up there with a drive towards Moscow.
4:: As long as NATO is willing to foot the bills [and they should], it would be up to Ukraine when the war ends, unless Poutine gives up which well may happen. Again though, that is pretty much doable, it's up to the west.
So 3 of those 4 things are actually not just probable but very much doable... unlike Ukraine driving to Moscow and making reservations at Darsia. But I'd like to hear what Paul Allan thinks.