TRUMP WINS

roddermac

Well-known member
Sep 17, 2023
1,778
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You're wrong roddermac, don't let dogma over-rule common sense. BERN is railing against oligarchs who have total control over everything. The question you should ask yourself is, what happens when Buffet croaks?

He complained about Elon Musk in his victory speech. He backed the same Democrats who screwed him over. He went after the millionaires until he became one then went after the billionaires.
 

kittykellykat

Kelly @ Secret Escorts
Jun 15, 2023
421
1,298
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I'm not sure economic hardship is pretty funny, but I guess we all have a different sense is humour.

The economic situation isn't static and tariffs are a tool designed to preserve or restore a competitive advantage and protect existing manufacturing, not bring back that which has been gone for decades. If a product or class of product that used to be manufactured in one place moves, there's a finite amount of time where protectionism can save it.

In Canada and the US, we have access to almost everything required to build cars at competitive prices when compared to everywhere else in the world. But increasingly we're seeing vehicle manufacturing get outsourced to places that have a competitive advantage in labour costs. While that advantage is only labour, a strategic use of tariffs could protect and preserve manufacturing because there is still near parity in competitive advantage. But it you wait until all the manufacturing jobs have left, the workforce has moved on, the factories have been gutted and torn down, and the manufacture of inputs has also relocated, then the tariffs cease to be useful at bringing the jobs here because startup costs become prohibitively expensive. Companies will wait out the tariffs, knowing a shift in political climate will almost certainly happen faster than the manufacturing capacity can be restored, and once these happens the balance to competitive advantage is lost and it become cheaper to shut it all down again.

Remember when Trump put tariffs on Canadian steel and as a result almost everything manufactured in the US that involved steel got more expensive? He did it claiming he was going to protect US steel manufacturing, but it turns out US steel couldn't meet production demands. They didn't really ramp up production either, because while they have a competitive advantage for existing demand, expansion costs were prohibitive. And so as a result he eventually carved out a bunch of exemptions, rendering the entire exercise mostly moot, but only after damage to both our economies had been done. It didn't reduce inflation, make things made of steel cheaper, protect manufacturing, or bring jobs back. It drove up prices (which still haven't come back down fully) and increased inflation while saving no jobs and creating no extra.

In fact, the tariffs implemented by Trump during his last presidency are estimated to have resulted in a net loss of 160,000 jobs, and because portions of it impacted critical industries that needed to be preserved (ie the farming industry as a result of his soybean tariff), it cost taxpayers a fortune in subsidies.

The reality of free trade and competitive advantage is complex and there's a lot of nuance. It's not that tariffs are bad, it's that a guy who clearly doesn't understand them and has a history of implementing them to the detriment of the economy is saying he's going to use blanket tariffs to restore and punish, rather than to protect, and that's not how tariffs work.

He's selling a strong economy via tariffs but that's not reality. He's actually touting a trade war while claiming it's going to reduce inflation and bring back jobs, and that has never been the goal or result of any trade war.

So no, it's not that tariffs used to be good but now they're bad. It's about acknowledging that tariffs are a tool and like any tool, it can be used wisely or poorly, and both Trump's words and past actions make it clear this is going to be the latter.
I am not in favour of the American tariffs one bit. At least not for Canadians. But this is a good post, regardless — I think you misread what I was saying about how the values had done a funnystyle switcheroo from left to right. I’m glad PP has explicitly said he intends to deal with this — he has my vote on those grounds
 

WyattEarp

Well-known member
May 17, 2017
7,886
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a higher turnout during the pandenic ? -yeah i am skeptical

19 miilion extra votes in 2020 vs 2016 and then in 2024 17 million voters disapear despite population growth

yeah something screwy happened , we will never know exactly now
but that was definately a mysterious anmoly that sticks out like an erection in a girls sporting event

View attachment 376310
It would be interesting to compare who voted and their method of voting in 2020 versus 2024.
 

WyattEarp

Well-known member
May 17, 2017
7,886
2,449
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That’s why it was in cursive.
I presume ChatGPT merely goes on to the world wide web and amalgamates opinions. Kind of like an opinion with no author.
 

kittykellykat

Kelly @ Secret Escorts
Jun 15, 2023
421
1,298
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I presume ChatGPT merely goes on to the world wide web and amalgamates opinions. Kind of like an opinion with no author.
It’s just a metagoogler (search engine of the search engine) and frankly it does a really bad job bc of how Google polices the internet.

it is good for some other things; i don’t use it. I already got KellyGPT in my brain
 

WyattEarp

Well-known member
May 17, 2017
7,886
2,449
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Wayne Gretzky was at Trumps election party at mar a lago. I don’t know why but I find that funny. So many closeted mags people coming out now that they see the majority behind Trump. Trump 2024!
That Wayne Gretzky he's really something. He carried a huge stick. What he could do with his stick zipping around defenders.
And his lovely wife Janet is here. I loved her in the movies. Beautiful, beautiful lady.
Wayne's daughter and son-in-law Dustin Johnson.....hello Dustin.........big, big supporter. Thanks Dustin.
 

WyattEarp

Well-known member
May 17, 2017
7,886
2,449
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Our good friend roddermac doesn't understand economics.

Oct 29 1929 is known as Black Thursday, President Hoover had plenty of time to reverse the damage and win re-election. He did the opposite, he signed into law the Smoot Haley Tariff Act which led to the designation Great Depression. FDR brought in The New Deal, it was not enough to reverse The Great Depression and the world descended into WW II.


I'm not sure Canada will be hit with tariffs, the US is dependent on Canadian copper, cobalt and aluminum.
This is really high school economics. Tariffs did not lead the U.S. into the Great Depression. A Fed unable because of limited policy tools and slow, clumsy responses to deal with contracting money supply turned a recession into the Great Depression.

What the simple tariffs aggravated the Great Depression argument rarely mentions that in the 1920s the U.S. was the world's leading exporter. So anyone can understanding raising tariffs is a stupid policy if you are the leading exporter.

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thirdcup

Well-known member
Jan 4, 2005
1,321
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Directly above the center of the earth
It looks like the United States of America will have another golden age. Little known facts
 

kittykellykat

Kelly @ Secret Escorts
Jun 15, 2023
421
1,298
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You mean threaten to hang the VP, storm the Capitol, relentlessly blame widespread voter fraud despite not being able to convince even the most Democratic-minded judges, and many such a big deal of it that election officials face death threats for 4 years?

Watching MAGA act like they were saints the last 4 years and Democratic supporters are crybabies because they're unhappy is the greatest degree of cognitive dissonance we've seen yet, and that's saying something.
I was disappointed with the storming of the Capitol.

It was so flaccid. They just like walked in so dispassionately. Then left. They could’ve done something cooler like steal some documents or some shit 🤣
 

richaceg

Well-known member
Feb 11, 2009
15,384
7,341
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You mean threaten to hang the VP, storm the Capitol, relentlessly blame widespread voter fraud despite not being able to convince even the most Democratic-minded judges, and many such a big deal of it that election officials face death threats for 4 years?

Watching MAGA act like they were saints the last 4 years and Democratic supporters are crybabies because they're unhappy is the greatest degree of cognitive dissonance we've seen yet, and that's saying something.
Annie are you ok? Are you ok, Annie?
 

kittykellykat

Kelly @ Secret Escorts
Jun 15, 2023
421
1,298
93
Again, they're a tool. We make EVs in Canada. We make EV components in Canada. We do it with very little government interference. We have a parity in competitive advantage under normal circumstances. China is doing it heavily subsidized in an attempt to sway market forces in their favour. This is an appropriate and useful use of tariffs, and if this is all Trump was proposing that would be a good thing too, but he's not.

You pretend you get it in one post but then continue to demonstrate you don't in another. Are you just being a troll or are you actually confused about how people can support something in some situations but not in others?
Sir relax — I used myself as an example of agreement what you said and you didn’t get it and you’re getting mad and calling me a troll 😅. Just block me then? Idk what you are screeching at me about rn
 

thirdcup

Well-known member
Jan 4, 2005
1,321
118
63
Directly above the center of the earth
Trumps first move will be to pardon himself from all federal charges. Over 1000 people went to jail people lost their jobs. They got disbarred, and yet he will be able to skate away from it.
If he pulls it off, that would impressive. In a certain kind of way.
 

WyattEarp

Well-known member
May 17, 2017
7,886
2,449
113
I'm not sure economic hardship is pretty funny, but I guess we all have a different sense is humour.

The economic situation isn't static and tariffs are a tool designed to preserve or restore a competitive advantage and protect existing manufacturing, not bring back that which has been gone for decades. If a product or class of product that used to be manufactured in one place moves, there's a finite amount of time where protectionism can save it.

In Canada and the US, we have access to almost everything required to build cars at competitive prices when compared to everywhere else in the world. But increasingly we're seeing vehicle manufacturing get outsourced to places that have a competitive advantage in labour costs. While that advantage is only labour, a strategic use of tariffs could protect and preserve manufacturing because there is still near parity in competitive advantage. But it you wait until all the manufacturing jobs have left, the workforce has moved on, the factories have been gutted and torn down, and the manufacture of inputs has also relocated, then the tariffs cease to be useful at bringing the jobs here because startup costs become prohibitively expensive. Companies will wait out the tariffs, knowing a shift in political climate will almost certainly happen faster than the manufacturing capacity can be restored, and once these happens the balance to competitive advantage is lost and it become cheaper to shut it all down again.

Remember when Trump put tariffs on Canadian steel and as a result almost everything manufactured in the US that involved steel got more expensive? He did it claiming he was going to protect US steel manufacturing, but it turns out US steel couldn't meet production demands. They didn't really ramp up production either, because while they have a competitive advantage for existing demand, expansion costs were prohibitive. And so as a result he eventually carved out a bunch of exemptions, rendering the entire exercise mostly moot, but only after damage to both our economies had been done. It didn't reduce inflation, make things made of steel cheaper, protect manufacturing, or bring jobs back. It drove up prices (which still haven't come back down fully) and increased inflation while saving no jobs and creating no extra.

In fact, the tariffs implemented by Trump during his last presidency are estimated to have resulted in a net loss of 160,000 jobs, and because portions of it impacted critical industries that needed to be preserved (ie the farming industry as a result of his soybean tariff), it cost taxpayers a fortune in subsidies.

The reality of free trade and competitive advantage is complex and there's a lot of nuance. It's not that tariffs are bad, it's that a guy who clearly doesn't understand them and has a history of implementing them to the detriment of the economy is saying he's going to use blanket tariffs to restore and punish, rather than to protect, and that's not how tariffs work.

He's selling a strong economy via tariffs but that's not reality. He's actually touting a trade war while claiming it's going to reduce inflation and bring back jobs, and that has never been the goal or result of any trade war.

So no, it's not that tariffs used to be good but now they're bad. It's about acknowledging that tariffs are a tool and like any tool, it can be used wisely or poorly, and both Trump's words and past actions make it clear this is going to be the latter.
If you listen to the words between the lines, the stuff most of the media is ignoring while they try to find ways to attack him, you will quickly realize tariffs are a threat, a policy tool, a negotiating tool to try to level unfair trade practices. There's not going to be tariffs on every U.S. import. It will be selective responses to selective countries.

The WTO has no teeth. When economists preach free trade, it's theoretical. The world has never had free trade. Countries will always be seeking advantages through trade......sometimes unfairly. Countries will also respond to the political pressure. Some will lean on exports to stimulate their economies at the expense of their trading partners.

I hear Canadians complain about the high cost of dairy products when they know New England imports could likely bring the prices down. The Chinese are dealing with their postponed economic reckoning and are trying to promote further exports on top of their already historically high exports. They are trying to cope with high youth unemployment.

Some of us remember the 1980s when it looked like Japan was literally going to wipe out the U.S. auto industry. The U.S. pressured Japan to limit exports and it led to Japanese car manufacturers building plants in the U.S. The U.S. has also had a 25% tariff on light trucks since 1964. (I believe there was a Democrat in the White House for those scoring at home.)

People scream about the tariffs. For some reason (politics?), they're fine with the subsidy war now occurring on semiconductors. Large subsidies are the sibling of tariffs. One might prefer the carrot approach of subsidies, but this is still a cost being transferred to the U.S. taxpayer.

Subsidies, import quotas and tariffs have been around since the dawn of civilization and each is a valid policy tool. What we are seeing over both the Trump and Biden Administrations is the acceptance of a U.S. industrial policy. Chronic trade imbalances and economic threats that impact our defense (semiconductors) has moved the U.S. in this direction.
 
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