The 2017 Blue Jay season thread

[Phil C. McNasty]

Where would the Blue Jays trade Tulo, without eating the vast majority of the $58,000,000 remaining on his deal (assuming they buy out the option).

Josh Donaldson has been eligible for arbitration the past 2 (might be 3?) seasons.
An increase is to be expected in 2018, my guess a $4-5M bump, should he go to arbitration.

Why isn't Russ likely to go anywhere?
I have 40,000,000 guesses why.
Pretty much the same reasons as Tulowitzki, though I don't believe he has a NTC

Then we can only hope that:

• Tulo has a comeback year (I'd be happy with 20 hr's, 80 ribbies and a .270 average).
• Martin isnt over the hill yet and posts decent stats.
• Estrada can rebound from this shitty season.
• Happ (who turns 35 this month) has at least 1 good season left in him.

Because otherwise Jays can forget about "going for it" in 2018

 

[The LoLRus]

But if Phil is right, they lied to him about going for it next year. He said that that was a big factor in him staying here.

Or they changed their minds

 

[The LoLRus]

Then we can only hope that:

• Tulo has a comeback year (I'd be happy with 20 hr's, 80 ribbies and a .270 average).
• Martin isnt over the hill yet and posts decent stats.
• Estrada can rebound from this shitty season.
• Happ (who turns 35 this month) has at least 1 good season left in him.

Because otherwise Jays can forget about "going for it" in 2018

Dont forget about Sanchez's blisters. There's a lot of if, and's or but's with this team if they wanna compete for the pennant next year. I wouldnt bet on them, thats for sure

 

[Dawgger]

Then we can only hope that:

• Tulo has a comeback year (I'd be happy with 20 hr's, 80 ribbies and a .270 average).

• 
  
  For that to happen he would have to stay healthy pretty much the entire season..

 

[shack]

Or they changed their minds

Same difference. It is not what they have been telling the fans or Estrada.

 

[shack]

For that to happen he would have to stay healthy pretty much the entire season..

And if I recall, his defense was significantly worse than years past.

 

[smitherz]

Then we can only hope that:

• Tulo has a comeback year (I'd be happy with 20 hr's, 80 ribbies and a .270 average).
• Martin isnt over the hill yet and posts decent stats.
• Estrada can rebound from this shitty season.
• Happ (who turns 35 this month) has at least 1 good season left in him.

Because otherwise Jays can forget about "going for it" in 2018

Happ was 14th in the AL in pitcher’s WAR this year at 3.5 (Stroman was 3rd at 5.8)
Impressive considering time lost to injury. His velocity this year is the same as the previous 2 seasons and whiff rates were higher this year than last year when he won 20 games. He’s one of the players i’m least concerned with.

Devon Travis is the big ticket , if he can finally get healthy and stay healthy it’ll have a huge impact. He had an OPS of 1.019 in May when the Jays went 18-10 for the month. He gets injured first week of June and everything fell apart after that. If he stays healthy u dont have both Barney and Goins playing almost everyday, and you certainly don’t have Bautista and his .200 avg and all his strikeouts leading off for 3 months.

Also Osuna needs to put up a consistent full season . Every year since he came into the league, he has a strong all-star level first half , then a very pedestrian second half. I think he needs to work on his stamina this offseason and be more physically and mentally prepared for an entire season. He’s shown up to camp the last 2 years with strange nagging injuries and it’s likely due to a poor or non-existent offseason workout regimen. He should spend 3 months with Stroman in Florida and come to camp ready to rumble.
Osuna was 6’ and 250 lbs when the Jays signed him at 16. Living and eating healthy has been a struggle for him his whole life.

 

[gcostanza]

And if I recall, his defense was significantly worse than years past.

Tulo's or Goins's?

Note, both were, Goins worse than Tulowitzki.

 

[shack]

Tulo's or Goins's?

Note, both were, Goins worse than Tulowitzki.

Tulo, in relation to his better years.

 

[ultistar]

As Shatkins says, they will retool or reload for 2018, built around JD and the starting rotation and if we are not in the race by the All Star break, you can bet there will be a sell off and full rebuild.

 

[Phil C. McNasty]

As Shatkins says, they will retool or reload for 2018, built around JD and the starting rotation and if we are not in the race by the All Star break, you can bet there will be a sell off and full rebuild

I think thats definitely plan B. Only problem with that is if some of the key players have off-years again, or they're injured, you're not going to get much for them in return.

Then what??

 

[black booty lover]

I think thats definitely plan B.

No that's plan A. The upper brass what these guys rebuild. They want this team competitive now because the money machine it's become the last few years.

 

[Phil C. McNasty]

No that's plan A. The upper brass what these guys rebuild. They want this team competitive now because the money machine it's become the last few years

I meant if Jays are not competing next year, the sell off and full rebuild at all-star break is plan B

 

[Phil C. McNasty]

Okay, so I found that interview with JD that aired during sundays Yankee game. Right after interview ended Buck and Pat came on and said something to the effect of "and yet word from Blue Jay management is they want to go with youth". Unfortunately thats not part of YT video.

Also, does it not seem JD gives off the impression he wants to stay in Toronto, but he's not entirely sure he'll be back??
Or am I reading it wrong??

 

[smitherz]

Josh Donaldson has been eligible for arbitration the past 2 (might be 3?) seasons.

This would be JD's 4th and final arbitration year. He's a Super-2 player and received arb-eligibility a year earlier than usual.
I suspect it was one of the reasons Billy Beane was so eager to trade him, because his salary was going to sky rocket pretty quickly.
He went from $4.3m his first arb year in 2015 (MVP season) to $17m this past season. And that was with a bit of a discount because it was signed as a 2 year extension to avoid the arbitration process. Neither side likes going to an arb hearing because it can get rather nasty.
If he gets $20m+ this offseason it would be a new record for an arb-eligible player. The current record is David Price's $19.75m in 2015

 

[ultistar]

This would be JD's 4th and final arbitration year. He's a Super-2 player and received arb-eligibility a year earlier than usual.
I suspect it was one of the reasons Billy Beane was so eager to trade him, because his salary was going to sky rocket pretty quickly.
He went from $4.3m his first arb year in 2015 (MVP season) to $17m this past season. And that was with a bit of a discount because it was signed as a 2 year extension to avoid the arbitration process. Neither side likes going to an arb hearing because it can get rather nasty.
If he gets $20m+ this offseason it would be a new record for an arb-eligible player. The current record is David Price's $19.75m in 2015

I believe the over/under number for JD is $22mil. worth it for a guy with top 8 MVP credentials the past 5 years.

 

[mandrill]

As Shatkins says, they will retool or reload for 2018, built around JD and the starting rotation and if we are not in the race by the All Star break, you can bet there will be a sell off and full rebuild.

If they keep JD and the starting rotation, just who exactly do they deal to get all those juicy prospects? Goins and Barney?

Smoak either takes a step back next year and becomes devalued on the trade market, or maintains and is the biggest bargain in MLB. So he's not a trade piece either way. Osuna is a bargain too if he retains / improves on his current form.

They have no real trade bait to rebuild with, aside from JD, Stro, Osuna and maybe Sanchez.

 

[Phil C. McNasty]

They have no real trade bait to rebuild with, aside from JD, Stro, Osuna and maybe Sanchez

Okay, so here's what I dont understand, if Jays can trade a pretty much washed up Liriano (who pitched horribly for Astros and is making $13 mill/yr) for a great prospect like Hernandez, why cant Jays trade Tulo or Martins for similar prospects??

 

[eguapo]

Okay, so here's what I dont understand, if Jays can trade a pretty much washed up Liriano (who pitched horribly for Astros and is making $13 mill/yr) for a great prospect like Hernandez, why cant Jays trade Tulo or Martins for similar prospects??

In Liriano's case it was a case of need (another left handed bullpen arm) vs. a wealth of young talented OF's for HOU. They have one of the most productive young OFs in the game in Springer,control of superutility guy Marwin Gonzalez, and Marisnick. They have 4+ WAR Reddick until 2020. Hernarnadez wasn't their best minor league OF. Kyle Tucker or Derek Fisher are.

Also only had to pay a fraction of Liriano's contract ($4.4mln).

No one one wants Tulo's massive contract which comes with its no trade clause ( thanks Alex). He wouldn't ever start for another AL East club.

And good luck finding a taker for a $20mln catcher who is probably good for 100 games behind the dish going forward and now does not hit well enough to play a lot of 3rd or DH regularly.

 

[Phil C. McNasty]

In Liriano's case it was a case of need (another left handed bullpen arm) vs. a wealth of young talented OF's for HOU. They have one of the most productive young OFs in the game in Springer,control of superutility guy Marwin Gonzalez, and Marisnick. They have 4+ WAR Reddick until 2020. Hernarnadez wasn't their best minor league OF. Kyle Tucker or Derek Fisher are.

Also only had to pay a fraction of Liriano's contract ($4.4mln).

No one one wants Tulo's massive contract which comes with its no trade clause ( thanks Alex). He wouldn't ever start for another AL East club.

And good luck finding a taker for a $20mln catcher who is probably good for 100 games behind the dish going forward and now does not hit well enough to play a lot of 3rd or DH regularly

All good points, I didnt look at it that way.

So I guess we're stuck with this bunch, no wonder front office wants to "go for it" in 2018, what other choice do they have