Recession

[PornAddict]

Do your self a favour and read a grade 10 economics textbook and then revisit your post.

Dont have to .. there will be no recession . There will be no two consecutive negative quarter GDP. Wheras your a negative person who must be thinking there will be a recession like fuji. USA ecomony will be at full capicity and Canada will have a yearly 3% growth. And in 8 month you or next year at this time you will eat crow. No recession. Only Russia and OPEC will be in recession.
Bottom line oil at low price is good for everyone except for OPEC and Russia . Alberta will suffer a bit and they are strong enough to get through it.

 

[GPIDEAL]

Dont have to .. there will be no recession . There will be no two consecutive negative quarter GDP. Wheras your a negative person who must be thinking there will be a recession like fuji. USA ecomony will be at full capicity and Canada will have a yearly 3% growth. And in 8 month you or next year at this time you will eat crow. No recession. Only Russia and OPEC will be in recession.

We don't need more doom and gloom scenarios by Fuji lol!

I will keep on reading the reports before I make up my mind.

 

[Insidious Von]

The question is can Alberta adapt or will Harper raise gas taxes to make up the shortfall?

New energy technologies will be coming online in the next ten years. RD in hydrogen gathered pace when oil was high, its now reached a level where we could be on the verge of something big. Harper cut funding in RD to keep us bonded to the Oil Sands, but now matters are beyond his control. Maybe Ontario can pick up the slack, our corporate taxes are some of the lowest in North America. But if a recession comes, due to how our economy is structured it will hit us harder than 2008.

 

[rhuarc29]

Note that the decline in oil prices is not only because of over-supply, but also because of falling demand, which is pretty quickly going to transfer through to a crash in consumer confidence.

This is where I think you go wrong. I don't see the correlation between cheap oil and a loss of consumer confidence. And the crash in oil prices is overwhelmingly more because of the over-supply than of decreased demand. A recession is coming, and I believe it will be as bad as the last (probably worse), but I peg it in late 2016 or even 2017.

 

[fuji]

This is where I think you go wrong. I don't see the correlation between cheap oil and a loss of consumer confidence. And the crash in oil prices is overwhelmingly more because of the over-supply than of decreased demand. A recession is coming, and I believe it will be as bad as the last (probably worse), but I peg it in late 2016 or even 2017.

Low oil prices do not cause a crash in consumer confidence. Lack of demand causes a crash in consumer confidence, and also independently causes a crash in oil prices. The demand slip is happening in Asia, particularly in China, and obviously also in Russia. Since Chinese consumers have essentially kept the global economy alive for the past few years when they begin to pull back that will be felt by businesses everywhere, and it will cascade.

The data says that the low oil prices are BOTH because of the over-supply AND because of a lack of demand.

The oversupply can be explained in trade-war political terms as the US attacking Russia, by cajoling allies like Saudi Arabia to join it in boosting supply at a moment when oil prices were weakening already. But oil prices were weakening already for fundamental reasons, and the US trade war with Russia is just going to exacerbate the situation.

 

[SkyRider]

My friend doesn't rule out the possibility that low oil prices was engineered by the U.S. (via Saudi Arabia) because:

1) It is net positive for the U.S. economy.
2) It punishes Putin.
3) It helps the EU and Ukraine.
4) It punishes Venezuela (remember Chevez).

 

[onthebottom]

You've made your prediction, I've made mine. We can come back and look at this thread in about 8 months. The official declaration of a recession is a trailing indicator following two consecutive quarters of negative growth -- I predict that starts now and that in 6-8 months it'll be declared.

I am not predicting another "great recession" like the financial crisis. I am predicting a recession, though. The recession will be global, and will be experienced in the US as a (falling) demand driven recession. In Canada it'll be a combination of falling demand (following the US) magnified by the impact of falling oil prices. Canada will go into a recession because of the demand issues; the oil price decline will simply exacerbate it.

Note that the decline in oil prices is not only because of over-supply, but also because of falling demand, which is pretty quickly going to transfer through to a crash in consumer confidence.

Just to be clear, I've predicted no recession in the US in 2015 and you are predicting one in the first half?

 

[fuji]

My friend doesn't rule out the possibility that low oil prices was engineered by the U.S. (via Saudi Arabia) because:

1) It is net positive for the U.S. economy.
2) It punishes Putin.
3) It helps the EU and Ukraine.
4) It punishes Venezuela (remember Chevez).

My view is similar, except that I think it was opportunism rather than engineered, and I think it hurts the US, but because it hurts Russia a lot more it is being tried.

Opportunism meaning I think the demand slump is happening for fundamental reasons and that the and allies like Saudi Arabia took the opportunity to raise production and torpedo moves to cut production in order to stick it to Vlad.

It is a dangerous game. If you think the US is playing that game, imagine if Russia plays too, and makes moves designed to increase oil prices. Moves like fomenting more war in the Middle East.

 

[onthebottom]

Stiff Q3 growth in the US.... I'd say your prediction is in trouble.

 

[shack]

Stiff Q3 growth in the US.... I'd say your prediction is in trouble.

So the question is, would fuji prefer to be wrong and we avoid a recession or would he prefer to be right even though it may spell some hardship.

 

[rhuarc29]

My view is similar, except that I think it was opportunism rather than engineered, and I think it hurts the US, but because it hurts Russia a lot more it is being tried.

I really don't think it'll hurt the States. It might be a bad time to be in the energy business, but just about every other industry is loving this.

My own prediction is that America powers through 2015, defying weakness just about everywhere else. I'm not expecting the ball to drop at least until late 2016.

 

[train]

What a suprise, a Fuji, prediction in trouble.

 

[fuji]

What a suprise, a Fuji, prediction in trouble.

Now you are on record too. Check back in eight months.

 

[onthebottom]

Now you are on record too. Check back in eight months.

First half will be here in 6.....

 

[fuji]

Alberta now in recession:

http://m.thestar.com/#/article/news...berta_likely_to_face_recession_this_year.html

It will spread.

 

[slider2]

Alberta now in recession:

http://m.thestar.com/#/article/news...berta_likely_to_face_recession_this_year.html

It will spread.

how do you equate an article that says "Alberta LIKELY to face recession" sometime in 2015 to your comment "Alberta now in recession"?

 

[Coors]

No matter how you cut it, it doesn't look like 2015 will be that rosy. With a dollar quickly approaching $0.80 (from $0.945) as a 52 week high we will very soon see another increase at the grocery stores for produce other items imported into Canada. All of those electronic items people love to buy will be going up shortly as well. The beach vacations that a lot of people like to take are going to cost more as well. While we are all saving a few bucks a week in the price of gas ($0.799 in east Ottawa this morning) the price of diesel isn't dropping nearly as quickly. Any company with trucks on the road are still paying north of $1.05 a litre (HST in) to deliver products.

Not to mention the federal and provincial governments will be looking to recoup the lost tax revenue on cheaper gasoline from us in other ways.

 

[bobcat40]

You know how the feds have been saying how great they have been managing the economy and we are now a balanced budget. Well all our eggs have been in the oil basket and it doesn't look to good for Canada's future right now...

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news...-two-more-years-td-forecasts/article22424125/

 

[SkyRider]

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...penings-jump-to-14-year-high/article22427568/

Are job openings a lagging indicator? If so, then we are at the top of the market and the only place is down.

 

[Scarey]

My wife works for a company that supply's open camps up north for the Oil & Gas sites.About 3 years ago they decided to diversify and make them more open camps for logging, minerals, mining etc.She said the CEO said in a meeting today it's the wisest decision he's made in 40 years. Suncor cut 1000 jobs today and over the next 3 months announcements like that are going to become the norm. I've seen some of the numbers,(I'm fucking my source)and between now and spring there are going to be ALOT of unemployed workers coming out of the bush in Alberta and Saskatchewan.