Recession
- Thread starter fuji
- Start date
I guess we'll have to wait and see how this plays out. I think the selling on wall street was an overreaction and that fundamentals in the U.S. are sound, if showing some cracks. But then, those cracks have been there since the last recession.
Bears and hedge guys will bounce and pounce and shop a bit today and tomorrow
I expect a 4-5% up on DOW
I expect a 4-5% up on DOW
Clearly I was right on the US, Tuesday we find out if you were correct on Canada.....You've made your prediction, I've made mine. We can come back and look at this thread in about 8 months. The official declaration of a recession is a trailing indicator following two consecutive quarters of negative growth -- I predict that starts now and that in 6-8 months it'll be declared.
I am not predicting another "great recession" like the financial crisis. I am predicting a recession, though. The recession will be global, and will be experienced in the US as a (falling) demand driven recession. In Canada it'll be a combination of falling demand (following the US) magnified by the impact of falling oil prices. Canada will go into a recession because of the demand issues; the oil price decline will simply exacerbate it.
Note that the decline in oil prices is not only because of over-supply, but also because of falling demand, which is pretty quickly going to transfer through to a crash in consumer confidence.
Yep. The data is strongly in my favor.Still feeling so confident? I think your stock market just caught up with the reality that wrenching changes in global economics aren't free of cost.
WRAPUP 2-U.S. Q2 GDP growth revised sharply higher to 3.7 percent
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/08/27/usa-economy-idUSL1N1120QD20150827
US jobs post solid gains; unemployment flat
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/07/us-c...-223000-expected-unemployment-rate-at-53.html
The economies are diverging...
Household debt:
http://static5.businessinsider.com/...726/screen shot 2015-01-08 at 10.14.22 am.png
Dependance on property:
http://static2.businessinsider.com/...745/screen shot 2015-01-08 at 10.15.41 am.png
Vs G7:
http://cdn.static-economist.com/sit...size/images/print-edition/20150711_AMC892.png
Household debt:
http://static5.businessinsider.com/...726/screen shot 2015-01-08 at 10.14.22 am.png
Dependance on property:
http://static2.businessinsider.com/...745/screen shot 2015-01-08 at 10.15.41 am.png
Vs G7:
http://cdn.static-economist.com/sit...size/images/print-edition/20150711_AMC892.png
Fuji was half right: http://news.yahoo.com/canada-officially-recession-first-half-2015-131114485.html
Do you really want to believe any numbers coming out of Statistics Canada at the moment. A group of civil servants mad at Harper because their salaries are no longer in run away increase territory who have not forgiven Harper for cancelling their beloved make-work exercise in the long form census. The civil service unions are backing Justin simply because they see another McGuinty / Wynn free spending government in Justin. Even the former head of Statistics Canada id back on tv chirping away about Harper destroying Canada by cancelling one useless piece of paper, Now would a group that has a vested interest in replacing Harper with Trudeau ever fib to us just to back their guy politically?
