Recession

[fuji]

It is coming. You may think we were in one but the last one ended five years ago.

Russia is imploding, interest rates there have rocketed to 17% and the economy is projected to shrink by 5% anyway. The currency is collapsing.

This is the result of the combination of the NATO led trade war against Russia combined with the US led collapse in oil prices. US allies in OPEC are staring at the ceiling, whistling, and actually inching up production. This is intentional.

But the economic assault on Russia will affect us too. Russians used to buy a lot of stuff with their oil money and our economies aren't all that healthy to begin with. While the collapse will hurt Russia a lot more, we are going to get burned too.

Canada will get hit pretty hard. Demand for goods and services will shrink as the US, our biggest customer, itself heads into demand slump recession, meanwhile oil revenues are tanking, along with the financial service sector that had Alberta oil firms as its biggest customer.

Recession is coming. Effectively, it is now here but the official indicators lag and will not declare it for two more quarters.

 

[Insidious Von]

Yikes, I/m agreeing with fuji!

This time Canada is going to be hit particularly hard, our deepest recession since 1991-92. Thanks to Paul Martin putting a check on banking mergers we escaped the 2007-09 recession relatively unscathed. Now we are a dedicated commodities economy, fully exposed to the boom and bust cycles of that sector. With Keystone still in limbo we're going to take one on the chin.

 

[SkyRider]

This doesn't sound good for Toronto real estate prices.

 

[spaman]

hey Fuji figure out your own shit. Canada is rich with natural resources, and the most unique government the world has ever know. We will be just fine.

 

[fuji]

hey Fuji figure out your own shit. Canada is rich with natural resources, and the most unique government the world has ever know. We will be just fine.

Of course, recession isn't the end of the world. We were just fine before, during, and after every recession. But one is coming.

 

[Big Sleazy]

I don't believe we actually ever came out of Recession. One can argue with the Government's made up numbers but all you have to do is drive across the Country and no real recovery exists. The employment numbers are BS with the bulk of them being part time jobs. Our mining industry is in the tank. The tar sands and fracking out West have to be suffering with these oil prices. And we've had low interest rates for over 6 years. Savers, Pension Funds, Insurance companies are getting whacked. If interest rates were normalized and not interfered with daily to keep them abnormally low, Governments and Real Estate would collapse within a month.

In an economy that is based on the creation of debt you need to continue to produce at a rate higher than inflation. Thus continual growth is a must or the system collapses. The 90's was the high tech bubble. The 2000's was the housing bubble. I would argue we're in the midst of the mother of all bubbles due to the continuation of near zero interest rates. Take away the manipulated Government numbers and we've been sliding and only propped up by bubbles for two decades.

BS

 

[rhuarc29]

I don't believe we actually ever came out of Recession. One can argue with the Government's made up numbers but all you have to do is drive across the Country and no real recovery exists.

"Recession" is just a word used to describe an economic slow down of X degrees. Worse, since the definition of a recession is based solely on the immediately proceeding timeline, you could be in the midst of a recession and yet still be better off than you were a few years earlier when no one was complaining.

I also see a recession coming. But my thoughts are it's still a ways off. I personally think the oil slide will defer the recession, if anything. Certainly economies that solely depend on oil will be hurting. But Russia going into recession next year won't by itself throw the world into recession. The States are what matter to us here in Canada, and they have the economic power to defy most other countries going into recession. The only thing I fear is an epic meltdown in Europe.

 

[onthebottom]

I don't think the US is headed for recession - I think all that energy spending will find more productive uses - including imports from Canada. The decline of your petri-dollar will help blunt some of the impact of falling oils prices.

Half Canadian trade is with the US, Russia doesn't make the top 10.... it's collapse is a non-event.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_largest_trading_partners_of_Canada

The real issue is stagnation in Old Europe.

 

[renaissance]

The Americans will make out like bandits... stronger dollar low energy cost win/win for them

 

[Toronto`s Finest]

Goood for consumers too ..... more poon money :cheer2:

 

[onthebottom]

Goood for consumers too ..... more poon money :cheer2:

86 cents today.... and headed that way!

 

[drlove]

The silver lining here is that The Bank Of Canada will think twice now before raising the overnight lending rate. They say they might raise it next summer, but I highly doubt that will happen - great for mortgages!

 

[shack]

petri-dollar

Is that what Rob and Laura spend?

 

[tml]

Is that what Rob and Laura spend?

Only in New Rochelle.

Seriously, Ontario may actually benefit and get back some of the lost manufacturing industry.

 

[DanJ]

Goood for consumers too ..... more poon money :cheer2:

Yep, filled up tonight and threw $25 into the hobby fund instead of the tank lol

 

[PornAddict]

It is coming. You may think we were in one but the last one ended five years ago.

Russia is imploding, interest rates there have rocketed to 17% and the economy is projected to shrink by 5% anyway. The currency is collapsing.

This is the result of the combination of the NATO led trade war against Russia combined with the US led collapse in oil prices. US allies in OPEC are staring at the ceiling, whistling, and actually inching up production. This is intentional.

But the economic assault on Russia will affect us too. Russians used to buy a lot of stuff with their oil money and our economies aren't all that healthy to begin with. While the collapse will hurt Russia a lot more, we are going to get burned too.

Canada will get hit pretty hard. Demand for goods and services will shrink as the US, our biggest customer, itself heads into demand slump recession, meanwhile oil revenues are tanking, along with the financial service sector that had Alberta oil firms as its biggest customer.

Recession is coming. Effectively, it is now here but the official indicators lag and will not declare it for two more quarters.

What a load of crap on recession coming to Canada! If recession was coming to Canada the TSX would be crashing / tsx is only in a correction terrorities and Stock market always look ahead 6 month in advance. Low oil prices is good for consumer and 2/3 of Canada GDP is based on consumer spending. and household spending will increase this year and next year. With low oil prices / low gas prices is like a cut tax for everyone which is like a stimulus for the economy. The only two provinces is hurt by low oil prices is Alberta and Newfoundland and the rest of the provinces will be fine. With the low dollar we will be exporting to our best neighbour which is the good old USA. All our goods and services will be bought by the USA. Our export surplus will increases dramatically.
Russia only have two major export and it oil&gas and vokla...nothing else.Their econony is depend only on this stuff rest they import . That why russia is doom. Our Canadian manufactering industries will do ready well because of the low dollar.
Plus with the election coming for the federal government next year .. good old harper already providing spending and tax cuts to our economy. And USA economy will be doing really well and the usa fed fund rate will begin to do a rate hike to slow the ecomony to prevented inflation. Next year USA will perform postive GDP growth and will be the best performing ecomony in the world next year. USA ecomony will be at full capacity!!! That will be good for Canada.

 

[onthebottom]

The silver lining here is that The Bank Of Canada will think twice now before raising the overnight lending rate. They say they might raise it next summer, but I highly doubt that will happen - great for mortgages!

US Fed has been signaling a mid-year increase in rates - you can't have zero rates forever....

 

[fuji]

I don't think the US is headed for recession - I think all that energy spending will find more productive uses - including imports from Canada. The decline of your petri-dollar will help blunt some of the impact of falling oils prices.

Half Canadian trade is with the US, Russia doesn't make the top 10.... it's collapse is a non-event.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_largest_trading_partners_of_Canada

The real issue is stagnation in Old Europe.

You've made your prediction, I've made mine. We can come back and look at this thread in about 8 months. The official declaration of a recession is a trailing indicator following two consecutive quarters of negative growth -- I predict that starts now and that in 6-8 months it'll be declared.

I am not predicting another "great recession" like the financial crisis. I am predicting a recession, though. The recession will be global, and will be experienced in the US as a (falling) demand driven recession. In Canada it'll be a combination of falling demand (following the US) magnified by the impact of falling oil prices. Canada will go into a recession because of the demand issues; the oil price decline will simply exacerbate it.

Note that the decline in oil prices is not only because of over-supply, but also because of falling demand, which is pretty quickly going to transfer through to a crash in consumer confidence.

 

[saxon]

Only in New Rochelle.

Seriously, Ontario may actually benefit and get back some of the lost manufacturing industry.

Not a chance, the Ont. Liberals have destroyed our manufacturing sector beyond repair. It's never coming back, it's only going to get worse.

 

[checks]

What a load of crap on recession coming to Canada! If recession was coming to Canada the TSX would be crashing / tsx is only in a correction terrorities and Stock market always look ahead 6 month in advance. Low oil prices is good for consumer and 2/3 of Canada GDP is based on consumer spending. and household spending will increase this year and next year. With low oil prices / low gas prices is like a cut tax for everyone which is like a stimulus for the economy. The only two provinces is hurt by low oil prices is Alberta and Newfoundland and the rest of the provinces will be fine. With the low dollar we will be exporting to our best neighbour which is the good old USA. All our goods and services will be bought by the USA. Our export surplus will increases dramatically.
Russia only have two major export and it oil&gas and vokla...nothing else.Their econony is depend only on this stuff rest they import . That why russia is doom. Our Canadian manufactering industries will do ready well because of the low dollar.
Plus with the election coming for the federal government next year .. good old harper already providing spending and tax cuts to our economy. And USA economy will be doing really well and the usa fed fund rate will begin to do a rate hike to slow the ecomony to prevented inflation. Next year USA will perform postive GDP growth and will be the best performing ecomony in the world next year. USA ecomony will be at full capacity!!! That will be good for Canada.

Do your self a favour and read a grade 10 economics textbook and then revisit your post.