Polling has changed….

Valcazar

Just a bundle of fucking sunshine
Mar 27, 2014
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No signs of it doing so. In fact, there is a slight tendency for the LPC to pull away even more.

Maybe this one won't be close.
There are still a couple of weeks, but it does seem like it is playing out far stronger for the LPC than I thought.

Here's my theory. Politics in Canada is like a dude (or lady) who has a series of marriages. They each last about 10 years. Initially the spouse is passionately attracted to the candidate and party and rewards him / it with large majorities. The attraction fades and the majorities become minority coalitions. And then eventually the electorate becomes angry, disillusioned and dismissive and falls in love with another candidate and the other political party.

And the process repeats over another 10 years. There's no real rhyme or reason. But the process just does the process over and over - essentially ever since Justin's dad was ousted in the 1980's.

This year was the year that Justin was going to be rejected and divorced and Pee was going to be married to Canada. But Pee's support was soft and when a new potential PM-husband came along who said nicer things and seemed to fit the mood and moment better than Pee, Pee too was rejected. Carney is the guy who's captured the popular imagination and the Libs have gamed the 10 year cycle successfully by ditching old husband Justin and enlisting hot new husband Carney.

I think that's the election. Pee no longer fits the mood. There's little Pee-substance - i.e. policies or accomplishments - to make his support harder or more tenacious. He just doesn't fit in any more and he's fated to be a sad cuckold ditched at what should have been the altar of his own betrothal.
I don't think it is just ditching Trudeau for Carney, though.
That initial bounce, sure, at least part of it.
But I don't think you can discount Trump's effect here.

I suppose that's part of what you're getting at with " Pee's support was soft and when a new potential PM-husband came along who said nicer things and seemed to fit the mood and moment better than Pee, Pee too was rejected. "

I just don't think that mood and moment happen like that if Trump doesn't go apeshit.
That worked both as "Carney seems steady in the face of this" working to elevate Carney and "PP has been running a Canadian version of the Trump playbook for the last year or so (style-wise) and we really don't like seeing that right now" working to push PP down.
 

Valcazar

Just a bundle of fucking sunshine
Mar 27, 2014
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If that was the case, Pee would still be the more attractive of the 2 candidates and would be husband material again as soon as he made some generic statements about "standing up to the mean Americans".

But these statements have had no impact on the election. Indeed, Carney appears to move more and more out of range.

Outside AB / SK and the hardcore Tory base vote, Pee's support is very soft and depended on the voters using him to voice their "Justin Fatigue". No Justin, no need to Pee.
I think Wyatt is right about the Trump element, but it is about PP's similarities to Trump, not just "can you stand up to him".

To use the dating analogy, your second candidate just sounds a LOT like your friend's abusive husband and gives similar vibes and that's creeping you out right now.
 

Valcazar

Just a bundle of fucking sunshine
Mar 27, 2014
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First, I think that's the Left underestimating the average voter's ability to discern issues in their communities. Basically, Republicans/Conservative are sensing disenchantment with the judicial system and reacting to them. Whether we like it or not, part of democratic politics is trying to deliver action that the electorate wants.
This part is very true.
The Democratic (and more liberalish in general) tendency to think policy matters has become a huge handicap in the current media environment.

The GOP (in particular) has become very good at understanding that "The people feel like crime is out of control" is more important than "Crime is out of control" when it comes to voting. (They also realized they can influence that first one via media and cultural dominance.)

Shit that sounds good but doesn't accomplish much (or is even counterproductive) will win out over stuff that is difficult to explain.
This is a problem that has been growing for 20-30 years and has gotten MUCH worse in the shift to the new media landscape.

So yes, PP trotting out the "3-strikes" thing to sound tough on crime is the kind of thing that is likely work for him so long as people still feel crime is out of control. (It may not be massive, but it will probably help some.)
 
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Frankfooter

dangling member
Apr 10, 2015
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There are still a couple of weeks, but it does seem like it is playing out far stronger for the LPC than I thought.



I don't think it is just ditching Trudeau for Carney, though.
That initial bounce, sure, at least part of it.
But I don't think you can discount Trump's effect here.

I suppose that's part of what you're getting at with " Pee's support was soft and when a new potential PM-husband came along who said nicer things and seemed to fit the mood and moment better than Pee, Pee too was rejected. "

I just don't think that mood and moment happen like that if Trump doesn't go apeshit.
That worked both as "Carney seems steady in the face of this" working to elevate Carney and "PP has been running a Canadian version of the Trump playbook for the last year or so (style-wise) and we really don't like seeing that right now" working to push PP down.
trump may have destroyed populism at this point, for a long time.
That and his 51st state business.
 

Valcazar

Just a bundle of fucking sunshine
Mar 27, 2014
38,709
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Unlike myself, you have little insight and understanding of the criminal justice system and that often interferes with your ability to deal with the issues.

A blanket minimum sentence rarely meets the requirements of justice. The SCC has discussed this in many of it rulings striking down minimums. More people should read those decisions and attempt to understand them. Many, many judges have written on this topic. But of course, an angry, conservative-voting high school drop out who supports the CPC or GOP is far wiser than the entire Bench. I believe the wise Lauren Boebert made similar comments only yesterday. Always well worth heeding, that Lauren Boebert.

It's facile to stir up unjustified anger at courts and harness that anger to gain votes and political standing. The Right does that far too much and Pee is attempting the same dishonest and despicable play.

But thanks for your contribution to this thread anyway. Always valued.
Wyatt wasn't saying it wasn't dishonest.
He was saying the people don't realize that blanket minimum doesn't hold up as good policy even on the merits it says it wants to be judged on but it SOUNDS good, and therefore people like it.
He's right about that.
 

mandrill

monkey
Aug 23, 2001
87,796
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You don't believe that. Politicians don't take action because their opponent challenges them to take action.

Unless of course, Carney is now a very special and unique politician.
If I didn't believe that, why tf would I write it? 🥴

Carney could have simply taken steps to stand up to Trump's imperialism and waited several months to call the election. But that would have left him open to the claim by both Pee and Trump that he had no real electoral mandate and was a figurehead. What better way to counter that criticism than to kick in Pee's balls in an election and emerge with an overwhelming mandate.
 
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mandrill

monkey
Aug 23, 2001
87,796
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Wyatt wasn't saying it wasn't dishonest.
He was saying the people don't realize that blanket minimum doesn't hold up as good policy even on the merits it says it wants to be judged on but it SOUNDS good, and therefore people like it.
He's right about that.
I think you're giving Earp far too much credit.
 

bver_hunter

Well-known member
Nov 5, 2005
30,471
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Progressives only see a life-affirming world where government shapes the society and does more and more things. According to their philosophy, opting to not have the government do more and more things is evidence of a political philosophy without merit and substance.

Basically, you told us that the Conservatives didn't support things you support. That itself doesn't answer my question.

I'm more interested in what Carney's agenda is......how and if he is communicating it.
Progressives are being attracted to Carney, as they have more trust in him rather than Pee pee, especially in light of addressing Trump's delusional tariffs that is going to negatively impact all economies around the Globe!!

Are you more clear as to what Pee pee's agenda is after he was appointed as the leader of the Conservative Government? He has stated that he supports affordable housing but has voted against it, just like he did for Childcare and Dental programs. The only transparency on his side has been his anger at question time in Parliament where practically on numerous occasions he starts his question with "Why does the PM....blah, blah, blah, blah", and so on and on. No wonder that his advisers persuaded him to get rid of those prescription glasses in favour of his current contact lenses to display less of an anger attitude. It worked for a time though not with the Progressives.

But this was your original statement.

I think most people would say that if the Conservatives don't control the government it will be deemed an electoral loss.
If you go by the current polls, it looks like it is the opposite, as most people will see it as a loss if the Conservatives do control the Government!!
The other issue where you were questioning the "policies" was taken out of context!!

Backtrack on policies? Is the color of the jersey the only thing thing that matters to you?

By the way, that's easier said than done for Carney and the Liberals to create a whole new look. I think politics in Canada are going to get very heated in the next three weeks.
I was not questioning the "policies" as it was about "backtracking" the refusal of Trudeau to initially resign. So not sure why you dragged the policies into the mix!!
 

bver_hunter

Well-known member
Nov 5, 2005
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Abacus Data Poll: Liberals lead by 6

At about the halfway point of the campaign, a new poll conducted entirely after Trump’s announcement of reciprocal tariffs last week finds the Liberals opening up a six point lead over the Conservatives. The survey of 1,900 Canadian adults was conducted from April 3 to 8, 2025






The second last bracket "The Conservatives will win easily" applies only to the righties on this Board!!:giggle:😅😂🤣
 
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Valcazar

Just a bundle of fucking sunshine
Mar 27, 2014
38,709
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Abacus Data Poll: Liberals lead by 6

At about the halfway point of the campaign, a new poll conducted entirely after Trump’s announcement of reciprocal tariffs last week finds the Liberals opening up a six point lead over the Conservatives. The survey of 1,900 Canadian adults was conducted from April 3 to 8, 2025

More important than the raw numbers, of course, is their distribution among seats.
 

gr81eh11

New member
Dec 31, 2020
6
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PP's personality is too grim to carry the election.

He should do Nardwuar's show to improve his chances in BC. The question is does Mark Carney need to go on a hike with Madison Clysdale, she could lock up BC for him. PP could use the boost from her magnetic personality.

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/fGMcQJWaSDU
Hello everyone, the thing that all of us should ask ourselves at election time is Are you better off financially today then you were in 2015, look around and see where we are as a country as a whole,there is a lot of our population that is hurting and it's only getting worse, politics is not about how good looking your Priminster is we are not picking someone for a roll in a movie, I here you about PP and his tone and I agree, but regardless we have to remember Trump is an effing buffoon, everyone knew what he was going to do if he became President again it's not a surprise , Canada is not going to become the 51 state no matter what, I am a centrist, my vote can swing for which policy makes the most sense that will move us forward.
We are a wealthy country with resources like no where else on this planet, we cannot forget that Mark Carney has been advising the Liberals since 2000, the way that we move forward Is to extract our resources and sell them to the world, elections are a very explosive subject and I hope that everyone is reading my response with an open mind we have stop being divided we have been for to long, Mark Carney is a banker not a polition, we have to ask ourselves , why would a executive that earns millions of dollars in the private sector every year wants to be the prime minister of Canada, makes ,me wonder when did everybody like Bankers all of sudden, I encourage everybody to Google his name and read about him see what he is all about, you can not continue to just tax a population and generate revenue to keep a country going financially strong, Trump is not the reason why we are as vulnerable as stand today, its because of the policies that have been I implemented from that government that has been in power for the last 10 years, and when you see where we are as a country today Mark Carney had a major role in all of this, does anybody realize that Brookfield investment the company the he Chairman of the board of owns 7 Enbridge pipe in Canda, do you really think he wants more pipelines to be built in Canada of course he doesn't it will take away profits from all his investments the he has in shares that are in trust, We need a strong Polition that knows what it takes to run a country not a Banker, say what you will about the Conservatives but I will say this we need change in government or if we all think it will get better, it will only get worse, has everybody notice the way Mark Carney has responding when a female reporter asks him a questions and pushes him for an answer what his reaction has been, now I know that people on this blog are going to but what about PP and his responses, the difference is many of the reporters always try to ask him a gotcha question and he is way to smart to go down those rabbit holes, but he always answers the question.
We have to ask ourselves which evil do we want Mark Carney that has lived in Canada maybe 5 of the last 34 years, has no experience on how to run a government, was involved in all the Liberal scandals since he was advising the Trudeux goverment for the last almost 6 years, A Banker that was the chairman of the board for" Brookfield Investments" that has been doing consulting work for the Liberal government and we have been paying with our tax dollars an average of 18 Billion dollars annually for the Last 7 TO 8 years, if you don't believe me get on your computer and go to "Canada Federal Data Base," click your way to to the files "Canada Spends" and in the search bar key in " brookfi" and start scrolling.
This is information that is available from from our federal government that any citizen can access at any time, and just keep scrolling and read all the contracts from all different departments in our government that "Broofield Investments" and all there sub company's have filled the pockets of "Mark Carney " and all the investors from Brookfield with all that tax payers money that gets deducted from our salary's weekly.
Also lets not forget not only the 2 Foreign Chinese Scandals with the candidates in MarkhamOnt. this passed week that have taken place with the Liberal party, and the meetings that have taken place with Mark Carney with and the president of China and the Mayor of Being in October Of 2024 we need to ask ourselves what's going on, what are the meeting about, didn't we just have an inquiry into foreign interference , Is Mark Carney already dealing with a foreign Government, what about all his off shore account not only in Bermuda but it was announced just today that he has been putting his money in off shore account in The Cayman islands WOW what a quadinkdink .
 

K Douglas

Half Man Half Amazing
Jan 5, 2005
30,039
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Room 112
Say what you want about Rebel News this video is a complete indictment of the Liberal mismanagement that has gone on for the past decade.
 

K Douglas

Half Man Half Amazing
Jan 5, 2005
30,039
11,523
113
Room 112
I think the liberals will win a minority.
Do you still believe this a week later? Perhaps we should have a friendly wager.
 
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