Ovi will pass Gretzky.
- Thread starter wazup
- Start date
I think so, and hope so.
Russian Machine never breaks.
NHL on ESPN - Scores, Stats and Highlights
Visit ESPN for NHL live scores, video highlights and latest news. Stream exclusive ESPN+ games and play Fantasy Hockey.
www.espn.com
If he continues scoring at the rate of the past 4 seasons, Ovechkin will need to play at least 265 more games to reach Gretzky's 894 goals record. That basically amounts to 3.33 more seasons. He will be 36 in September. Its definitely doable but I'd put the odds at below 50%.
Nah.......I don't think he makes it. He's carrying around a lot of weight and that's going to add up on his back and joints.
It's only a matter of time till he starts to break down.
He is the best goal scorer I have ever scene though.......Well maybe Mike Bossy is as well........
It's only a matter of time till he starts to break down.
He is the best goal scorer I have ever scene though.......Well maybe Mike Bossy is as well........
Laval kid. Married a local girl (Lucie Creamer).
The knocks against him were weak defensively and fragile (true, bad back) retired at 30. Still I wish Montreal had grabbed him for those 10 years and 573 goals. I think Bobby Orr also played just 10 years.
Mike Bossy - Wikipedia
This thread is about Ovie and Gretzky. Because somebody briefly mentioned Bossy as an aside, you now talk about his marriage and then Bobby Orr. Totally and undeniably irrelevant to the topic at hand. Nobody cares.
As I said, nobody can derail a thread like you. You are the master.
I do not think that Ovie will pass Gretz and personally, I'd hate to see it. I have an Ovie voodoo doll. I just need more pins.
Doable but there is the COVID factor, he could get the virus and miss games, or if NHL shuts down if virus variants spin out of control even more.
Everything has to go right...can't miss large chunks of games, has to remain a productive player...he has a shot for sure.
He has well over a 50% chance. Things don’t even have to break perfectly.
The problem with many calculation is the assumption that he has to get it done in 4 years or before his age 40 season.
Selanne played until he was 43 ... had 31 and 26 goal seasons after 40. Mark Recchi played until he was 42... averaged about 50 points a game in those 3 last years. Jags played until he was 45 and had very productive offensive seasons at 41 and 43. Chara is now 43... he was still above average during his 40 and 41 year old seasons.
Say ovechkin gets another 8 goals this year and averages 30 over his next 4 seasons. Those are not far fetched expectations.
Then he is 40 goals away from the record entering the age 40 season. At that point he more the likely stretched out his career to break the record. Even if he was 50 or 60 away he could do the same.
It comes down to how important the record is to Ovechkin. If it is really important.he will stretch out his career as needed.
The problem with many calculation is the assumption that he has to get it done in 4 years or before his age 40 season.
Selanne played until he was 43 ... had 31 and 26 goal seasons after 40. Mark Recchi played until he was 42... averaged about 50 points a game in those 3 last years. Jags played until he was 45 and had very productive offensive seasons at 41 and 43. Chara is now 43... he was still above average during his 40 and 41 year old seasons.
Say ovechkin gets another 8 goals this year and averages 30 over his next 4 seasons. Those are not far fetched expectations.
Then he is 40 goals away from the record entering the age 40 season. At that point he more the likely stretched out his career to break the record. Even if he was 50 or 60 away he could do the same.
It comes down to how important the record is to Ovechkin. If it is really important.he will stretch out his career as needed.
There should be Chuck Norris jokes about ovechkin, he's never injured. He no longer plays reckless like he used to and will have 3 more 40 plus goal seasons at least.
Imagine the Excitement generated when he gets close. Like the home run record almost, although bonds at bats were easier to cover and cut away to watch as networks knew when he was up to bat.
Imagine the Excitement generated when he gets close. Like the home run record almost, although bonds at bats were easier to cover and cut away to watch as networks knew when he was up to bat.
No doubt his two BFF's will give him a hug. The three of them are cut from the same cloth. How about a group hug?
BTW: I don't do spellchecks anymore, that is now officially Costanza's job.
Ovi lost at least 25 total goals due to the shorted Covid seasons this year and last. That was most unfortunate.
Let's assume Ovi passes Dionne ending 2020/21 season at 734. Just 7 more goals required in 2021/22. Leaving exactly 160 goals to go to tie 99.
Ovi production WILL decline - he was an automatic 50 goal scorer many years - let's assume 2021/22 onwards there is a FULL 82 game season.
Ovi has been 97% utilization rate in his career - without injury he should play 75 games or more for 4 seasons - 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 = 300 games
If GPG drops to 0.5 GPG he will score 37 goals be within 12 of 99's record after 4 more seasons. Ovi's career average is 0.61 GPG.
If GPG drops to 0.4 GPG he will score 30 goals and be within 40 of 99's record after 4 more seasons. That would require a 6th season or more.
Ovi can do it if he plays healthy until 2025/26, when Ovi will be over 40, and his GPG stays over 0.4.
Howe and Jagr still put up goals over 40 I hope Ovi can as well.
I am cheering for OVI
Let's assume Ovi passes Dionne ending 2020/21 season at 734. Just 7 more goals required in 2021/22. Leaving exactly 160 goals to go to tie 99.
Ovi production WILL decline - he was an automatic 50 goal scorer many years - let's assume 2021/22 onwards there is a FULL 82 game season.
Ovi has been 97% utilization rate in his career - without injury he should play 75 games or more for 4 seasons - 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 = 300 games
If GPG drops to 0.5 GPG he will score 37 goals be within 12 of 99's record after 4 more seasons. Ovi's career average is 0.61 GPG.
If GPG drops to 0.4 GPG he will score 30 goals and be within 40 of 99's record after 4 more seasons. That would require a 6th season or more.
Ovi can do it if he plays healthy until 2025/26, when Ovi will be over 40, and his GPG stays over 0.4.
Howe and Jagr still put up goals over 40 I hope Ovi can as well.
I am cheering for OVI
Here's the difference. None of those guys played a hard game like Ovechkin. Dude was dishing out 200+ hits per year. His 35 year old body has a lot of wear and tear. Plus the law of averages would dictate that he's due for an injury that will force him to miss considerable time. That being said he's a machine and very determined so it wouldn't surprise me if he accomplished it. Just would not put the odds at well over 50% like you think.
Ha.
I somehow had missed your post.
Nice to see that we came up with damn close to the same time frame.
