NFL 2024 regular season
- Thread starter K Douglas
- Start date
Yeah. Our pool is ATS.
Keep in mind that all the factors you've mentioned have been taken into account by Vegas. And probably 100 more. How can we possibly think that we know which factor(s) the oddsmakers over or under valued. We're kidding ourselves if we think that we rationalize that "the coach got fired" so I'm betting against them. Or whatever. We can't "outfigure" the pros.
Vegas knows this and factored it in.
Vegas knows this and factored it in.
Vegas knows this and factored it in.
I haven't seen the spreads yet, but if that's case, most likely.
Vegas knows this and factored it in.
Things like injuries during a game are unpredictable and are like a wild card that totally changes a game.
I went through a 20 something year period where I looked at about 20 parameters and applied them to every game and every week, like home vs. away, AFC/NFC, Home dogs etc. Every parameter was close to 50% either way. The biggest difference I found was that when the spread was between 7 and 10 the dog covered about 52.5% of the time. So the diff between taking dog vs. fave was about 5%. Surprisingly, when the spread was more than 10, the dog covered at a lower %age. So, it doesn't matter who the teams are, what their record is, who is injured etc., etc., it only mattered how far off Vegas was from 50/50. The more they missed by on a particular parameter, would be my main consideration as to whom I'd bet on. I was evaluating the performance of Vegas, not the teams.
If you're betting real money with a bookie, you're still probably going to lose because the 10% juice is more than any parameter I looked at. But if you're betting in a pool where there is no juice, it may give you a slight advantage.
Listen, KD, I know you are very knowledgeable and have done quite well, but if anybody thinks that they know more than Vegas and which factors are more important is deluding themselves. IMO.
Other smaller advantages, AFC covers more than NFC in inter-conference games. My theory is that there are more big market teams in the NFC, therefor there are more people who bet with their hearts on their team which will influence the spread against their team. For example, Giants fans will out bet Titans fans. So betting a small market team, you may have a slight advantage vs. taking a big market team that has more money on them.
I also like divisional.
I like betting against teams that played Monday the previous week.
If a spread moves by more than a point during the week, bet in the direction that the spread went. So if the spread went up by 2, give up those points and take the chalk.
But like I said, these differences are less than the "between 7 and 10" parameter. Maybe only 51-49% But for example, if you have a big market playing a small market and they are favoured and the played on MNF and the spread went down, go with the small market dog.
Anyway, that's my system and I'm not going to say that it's a guaranteed winner, but I think that there is some merit to it based on the things I measured for over 20 years.
I also like divisional.
I like betting against teams that played Monday the previous week.
If a spread moves by more than a point during the week, bet in the direction that the spread went. So if the spread went up by 2, give up those points and take the chalk.
But like I said, these differences are less than the "between 7 and 10" parameter. Maybe only 51-49% But for example, if you have a big market playing a small market and they are favoured and the played on MNF and the spread went down, go with the small market dog.
Anyway, that's my system and I'm not going to say that it's a guaranteed winner, but I think that there is some merit to it based on the things I measured for over 20 years.
Divisional games are usually close because the teams play each other so often and usually build their team around beating the other 3 divisional teams
Plus the hatred that builds up over time. The lousier is plays over their head because of hate. LOL.
Albero Piscadurr's weekly recap of the games. The Dullass Cowboys live up to their name. Aaron Rogers can't get on Love, the Washington Cupcakes have a QB?
And now for my next trick, Derrick Henry...will he break into the top 10 of the best rushers career, this season?
And now for my next trick, Derrick Henry...will he break into the top 10 of the best rushers career, this season?
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Week 7
When Mike Tomlin replaced Justin Fields with Russell Wilson as starting Steelers QB, the pundits were apoplectic. Dumb move, they all said. And at the start of the game on SNF, it seemed the pundits were right. Russell dumped the ball all over the pitch to a chorus of boos. Then he started to deliver in the 2nd quarter, making dandy throws Fields never made. Someone asked Tomlin after the Steelers 37-15 victory if the replacement was his boldest move. His response: "That's why I am well compensated." Classic Tomlin.
Lions QB Jared Goff is the MVP. He cant miss, delivering multitude clutch throws. Lions going to the Super Bowl. No doubt.
Even though the Chiefs are 6-0, Patrick Mahomes is playing the worst football of his career. Another 2 interceptions yesterday. Difference with him is he makes the plays when it matters the most.
SF 49ers receiver corp is completely decimated. Christian McCaffrey has been out. But then wide receivers Deebo Samuels, Brandon Aiyuk, Jauan Jennings were all taken out. Aiyuk might be lost for the year with a torn Achilles
When Mike Tomlin replaced Justin Fields with Russell Wilson as starting Steelers QB, the pundits were apoplectic. Dumb move, they all said. And at the start of the game on SNF, it seemed the pundits were right. Russell dumped the ball all over the pitch to a chorus of boos. Then he started to deliver in the 2nd quarter, making dandy throws Fields never made. Someone asked Tomlin after the Steelers 37-15 victory if the replacement was his boldest move. His response: "That's why I am well compensated." Classic Tomlin.
Lions QB Jared Goff is the MVP. He cant miss, delivering multitude clutch throws. Lions going to the Super Bowl. No doubt.
Even though the Chiefs are 6-0, Patrick Mahomes is playing the worst football of his career. Another 2 interceptions yesterday. Difference with him is he makes the plays when it matters the most.
SF 49ers receiver corp is completely decimated. Christian McCaffrey has been out. But then wide receivers Deebo Samuels, Brandon Aiyuk, Jauan Jennings were all taken out. Aiyuk might be lost for the year with a torn Achilles
It's a long season with many games to go and many, many things that can go wrong and/or sideways, especially injuries.
Though I would love for them to win the SB, I unlike you am not going to:
The real difference is that the Chiefs defense is top tier which allows Mahomes to be placed in a situation to make the plays when it matters most despite not making enough of them throughout the game as he has in the past.
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Joe Montana and Tom Brady could make the plays with 2nd, 3rd string and waiver wire receivers all the time.
The newly christened noveau-GOAT, after just 6 games started, apparently cannot.
I said Lions going to the SB. Didnt say they were going to win it. BTW, they won without their best player Aidan Hutchinson
Montana always had Jerry Rice in SF. He was relatively ineffective in KC without Rice. And Brady almost always had his safety valve Gronkowski, even in Tampa
Goff won't get the MVP. Lanar Jackson is the most likely but if jayden daniels keeps up the way he is playing and Washington wins a playoff game or two he will also be in contention. Stafford was always overlooked in Detroit- he didn't make the pro bowl after throwing for over 5000 yards and he almost never had a running game. Goff is playing very good but he has one of the best running games and offensive lines in football. San Fran probably won't make the playoffs at this point and even if they do they are most likely a 1 and done in the playoffs. The real questions at this point is if the redskins and vikings are going to sustain their success or drop back into obscurity
