NFL 2024 regular season

[knees]

okay five games into the season, revisiting my predictions / follows :

Chiefs 3-peat ?
- Looking likely

how bad Aaron Rodgers / Jets gonna be ?
- bad and gonna be worse, coach already fired and Rodgers gonna pout


how good will Jim Harbaugh 's Chargers be in year 1 ?
- loos decent so far, too early to tell, they gonna feast on the weak LV and Denver in their division. At least they have a QB1.

Joe Burrow and Bengals collapse and coach getting fired finally ?
- in a downward spiral, coach on hot seat

Jared Goff / Lions taking a step forward ?
- looking good so far

Jordan Love / Packers taking a leap forward ?
- not looking good

Can 49ers win with a mediocre QB in Brock Purdy.
- not a good start, too lazy to look up strength of schedule. Mediocre

On the other hand a lot of drama in college football.
Vandy just beat Bama, after bama bear Georgia

 

[shack]

how bad Aaron Rodgers / Jets gonna be ?
- bad and gonna be worse, coach already fired and Rodgers gonna pout

The story is that Rodgers got him fired without asking for it.

 

[High Octane 99]

They won against Titans, Patriots and almost started a Super Bowl parade.

The fact that Hackett is still there is mind boggling. It is the offence that has been pathetic.

And Rodgers too has not been good so far this season. 2 out of the 3 picks in the MIN game are definitely his fault (the first one partially we can say). He overthrew one and threw to the wrong location on the other (not the outside shoulder).

The story is that Rodgers got him fired without asking for it.

 

[princekwekua]

Robert Saleh was escorted out of the building after firing. Not allowed to say goodbye. Notice the flag of Lebanon on his arm at the London game. That said it all.

 

[Insidious Von]

Thor finally wins a game. The Browns should change their handle to the Cleveland Fuchsia and Joe Flacco is God.

Update to a Blazing Saddles punchline: and now for my next trick, Derrick Henry.

Having Urinating Tree recap the week is a brilliant move by the NFL.

 

[princekwekua]

Brock Purdy carved up the Seahawks with his arm AND legs. And come to think he was selected by the 49ers with the final (262nd) pick of the 2022 NFL draft known as Mr. Irrelevant. In the mold of Joe Montana and Tom Brady, Brock Purdy is the best pure passer in the NFL today. Hats off

 

[shack]

I only made 1 bet in my pool today.

I had the Browns at +8.5

We start the season with 1,000 points. I sat out the 1st 2 weeks just to get a sense of what's happening. I was at 1,050 coming into this week and put 200 on this game. I also have 50 points on the Jets at 2.5 tomorrow.

You are not allowed to bet more that 50% of your points in any one week.

 

[princekwekua]

Early in his career, QB Lamar Jackson of the Ravens was known primarily as a runner. But he has worked diligently to become a very proficient passer. He threw some darts in the victory against the Commanders yesterday. Oh, and he was just as lethal with his legs. Together with the bulldog Derek Henry in the back field, the Ravens might be the best team in the NFL, even though they have 2 losses.

And the kid Jayden Daniels of the Commanders held his own against Lamar. Making one incredible throw after another. A star in the making - in his own right.

Then there was Caleb Williams in London. Early in the season when he wasnt playing well, some pundits were saying the Bears made a mistake in letting Justin Fields go. No one is making that call now. Superb performance against the Jaguars have the Bears humming nicely at 4-2. Vikings, Lions, Packers, Bears. The battle for glory in the NFC North is the most intense.

And then we had the fans in Philly peeing on their own team against the Browns. The Eagles struggled against the stout Browns defence. Instead of lifting up their team, Philly fans (as usual) let their team have it with loud obscene booing. They still werent happy even though their team won. So HC Nick Siriani approached some fans and gave them a piece of his mind. QB Jalen Hurts has lost the form he exhibited on the way to the SB in 2023, frustrating the fans mightily. If they dont rectify, the Commanders might just take the weak NFC East.

Jerry Jones of the Cowboys is not only the owner, he is also the General Manager, with a final say in all personnel moves. Well, the Cowboys have lost 4 straight home games by lopsided margins, mostly because they dont have a running game. Instead of a dynamic runner, Jones brought back washed up Zeke Elliot. So with no running, defences are just teeing on Dak Prescott. Anywhere else and the GM would be fired. But Jones will not fire himself with predictable lousy performances.

 

[princekwekua]

And then of course there is Deshaun Watson, QB of the Cleveland Browns. The only player in NFL history with a fully guaranteed contract of $230 million over 5 years signed in 2022. And now the worst QB in the NFL by a wide margin. He cant complete even the simplest of throws. Nothing. To show the potential of these Browns, "old man" Joe Flacco led them to the playoffs last season when Deshaun went down injured. So his poor play is holding back the Browns. And not much they can do as they will take a massive cap hit of about $200 million if they cut him. Which is why the NFL is averse to guaranteed contracts.

 

[K Douglas]

Davante Adams traded to the NY Jets as expected

NFL trade grades: Sizing up 17 deadline deals

We have grades on every trade deadline move, including deals for Preston Smith and Marshon Lattimore.

www.espn.com

 

[K Douglas]

I only made 1 bet in my pool today.

I had the Browns at +8.5

We start the season with 1,000 points. I sat out the 1st 2 weeks just to get a sense of what's happening. I was at 1,050 coming into this week and put 200 on this game. I also have 50 points on the Jets at 2.5 tomorrow.

You are not allowed to bet more that 50% of your points in any one week.

I don't have the heart to bet on the Browns anymore, Watson is just awful. Nevertheless good call something just isn't right with Philly. And the Jets should have covered for you they gave that game away.

 

[K Douglas]

Early in his career, QB Lamar Jackson of the Ravens was known primarily as a runner. But he has worked diligently to become a very proficient passer. He threw some darts in the victory against the Commanders yesterday. Oh, and he was just as lethal with his legs. Together with the bulldog Derek Henry in the back field, the Ravens might be the best team in the NFL, even though they have 2 losses.

And the kid Jayden Daniels of the Commanders held his own against Lamar. Making one incredible throw after another. A star in the making - in his own right.

Then there was Caleb Williams in London. Early in the season when he wasnt playing well, some pundits were saying the Bears made a mistake in letting Justin Fields go. No one is making that call now. Superb performance against the Jaguars have the Bears humming nicely at 4-2. Vikings, Lions, Packers, Bears. The battle for glory in the NFC North is the most intense.

And then we had the fans in Philly peeing on their own team against the Browns. The Eagles struggled against the stout Browns defence. Instead of lifting up their team, Philly fans (as usual) let their team have it with loud obscene booing. They still werent happy even though their team won. So HC Nick Siriani approached some fans and gave them a piece of his mind. QB Jalen Hurts has lost the form he exhibited on the way to the SB in 2023, frustrating the fans mightily. If they dont rectify, the Commanders might just take the weak NFC East.

Jerry Jones of the Cowboys is not only the owner, he is also the General Manager, with a final say in all personnel moves. Well, the Cowboys have lost 4 straight home games by lopsided margins, mostly because they dont have a running game. Instead of a dynamic runner, Jones brought back washed up Zeke Elliot. So with no running, defences are just teeing on Dak Prescott. Anywhere else and the GM would be fired. But Jones will not fire himself with predictable lousy performances.

Both Caleb and Jayden are going to be very good NFL quarterbacks. That draft class was pretty sick.

 

[shack]

I don't have the heart to bet on the Browns anymore, Watson is just awful. Nevertheless good call something just isn't right with Philly. And the Jets should have covered for you they gave that game away.

I didn't actually bet on the Browns. I bet on the spread.

Based on my metrics, I'll bet on any dog against any team when the spread is between 7 and 10. The teams and their records and all other factors are irrelevant to me.

 

[K Douglas]

I didn't actually bet on the Browns. I bet on the spread.

Based on my metrics, I'll bet on any dog against any team when the spread is between 7 and 10. The teams and their records and all other factors are irrelevant to me.

When I say bet one one team or another I mean with the spread. The Browns have fucked me multiple weeks. I'm done with them. Watson is arguably a bottom 3 QB in the NFL. Now they just traded their best WR. Right when they get Chubb back.
So this week you're betting Titans +8.5 I guess? If Levis is playing no way do I do that, he may be worse than Watson.

 

[tml]

When I say bet one one team or another I mean with the spread. The Browns have fucked me multiple weeks. I'm done with them. Watson is arguably a bottom 3 QB in the NFL. Now they just traded their best WR. Right when they get Chubb back.
So this week you're betting Titans +8.5 I guess? If Levis is playing no way do I do that, he may be worse than Watson.

Quite a fall from last year. They were one of the more pkeasant surprises.

 

[Insidious Von]

Quite a fall from last year. They were one of the more pkeasant surprises.

The Browns have a stronger OL than the Jaguars. They have the same problem at QB as the Giants....

 

[shack]

When I say bet one one team or another I mean with the spread. The Browns have fucked me multiple weeks. I'm done with them. Watson is arguably a bottom 3 QB in the NFL. Now they just traded their best WR. Right when they get Chubb back.
So this week you're betting Titans +8.5 I guess? If Levis is playing no way do I do that, he may be worse than Watson.

Yeah. Our pool is ATS.

Keep in mind that all the factors you've mentioned have been taken into account by Vegas. And probably 100 more. How can we possibly think that we know which factor(s) the oddsmakers over or under valued. We're kidding ourselves if we think that we rationalize that "the coach got fired" so I'm betting against them. Or whatever. We can't "outfigure" the pros.

When I say bet one one team or another I mean with the spread. The Browns have fucked me multiple weeks. I'm done with them.

Watson is arguably a bottom 3 QB in the NFL.

Vegas knows this and factored it in.

Now they just traded their best WR.

Vegas knows this and factored it in.

Right when they get Chubb back.

Vegas knows this and factored it in.

So this week you're betting Titans +8.5 I guess?

I haven't seen the spreads yet, but if that's case, most likely.

If Levis is playing no way do I do that, he may be worse than Watson.

Vegas knows this and factored it in.

Things like injuries during a game are unpredictable and are like a wild card that totally changes a game.

I went through a 20 something year period where I looked at about 20 parameters and applied them to every game and every week, like home vs. away, AFC/NFC, Home dogs etc. Every parameter was close to 50% either way. The biggest difference I found was that when the spread was between 7 and 10 the dog covered about 52.5% of the time. So the diff between taking dog vs. fave was about 5%. Surprisingly, when the spread was more than 10, the dog covered at a lower %age. So, it doesn't matter who the teams are, what their record is, who is injured etc., etc., it only mattered how far off Vegas was from 50/50. The more they missed by on a particular parameter, would be my main consideration as to whom I'd bet on. I was evaluating the performance of Vegas, not the teams.

If you're betting real money with a bookie, you're still probably going to lose because the 10% juice is more than any parameter I looked at. But if you're betting in a pool where there is no juice, it may give you a slight advantage.

Listen, KD, I know you are very knowledgeable and have done quite well, but if anybody thinks that they know more than Vegas and which factors are more important is deluding themselves. IMO.

 

[shack]

Other smaller advantages, AFC covers more than NFC in inter-conference games. My theory is that there are more big market teams in the NFC, therefor there are more people who bet with their hearts on their team which will influence the spread against their team. For example, Giants fans will out bet Titans fans. So betting a small market team, you may have a slight advantage vs. taking a big market team that has more money on them.

I also like divisional.
I like betting against teams that played Monday the previous week.
If a spread moves by more than a point during the week, bet in the direction that the spread went. So if the spread went up by 2, give up those points and take the chalk.

But like I said, these differences are less than the "between 7 and 10" parameter. Maybe only 51-49% But for example, if you have a big market playing a small market and they are favoured and the played on MNF and the spread went down, go with the small market dog.

Anyway, that's my system and I'm not going to say that it's a guaranteed winner, but I think that there is some merit to it based on the things I measured for over 20 years.

 

[dirtydaveiii]

Other smaller advantages, AFC covers more than NFC in inter-conference games. My theory is that there are more big market teams in the NFC, therefor there are more people who bet with their hearts on their team which will influence the spread against their team. For example, Giants fans will out bet Titans fans. So betting a small market team, you may have a slight advantage vs. taking a big market team that has more money on them.

I also like divisional.
I like betting against teams that played Monday the previous week.
If a spread moves by more than a point during the week, bet in the direction that the spread went. So if the spread went up by 2, give up those points and take the chalk.

But like I said, these differences are less than the "between 7 and 10" parameter. Maybe only 51-49% But for example, if you have a big market playing a small market and they are favoured and the played on MNF and the spread went down, go with the small market dog.

Anyway, that's my system and I'm not going to say that it's a guaranteed winner, but I think that there is some merit to it based on the things I measured for over 20 years.

Divisional games are usually close because the teams play each other so often and usually build their team around beating the other 3 divisional teams

 

[Anbarandy]

Yeah. Our pool is ATS.

Keep in mind that all the factors you've mentioned have been taken into account by Vegas. And probably 100 more. How can we possibly think that we know which factor(s) the oddsmakers over or under valued. We're kidding ourselves if we think that we rationalize that "the coach got fired" so I'm betting against them. Or whatever. We can't "outfigure" the pros.

Vegas knows this and factored it in.
Vegas knows this and factored it in.
Vegas knows this and factored it in.
I haven't seen the spreads yet, but if that's case, most likely.
Vegas knows this and factored it in.

Things like injuries during a game are unpredictable and are like a wild card that totally changes a game.

I went through a 20 something year period where I looked at about 20 parameters and applied them to every game and every week, like home vs. away, AFC/NFC, Home dogs etc. Every parameter was close to 50% either way. The biggest difference I found was that when the spread was between 7 and 10 the dog covered about 52.5% of the time. So the diff between taking dog vs. fave was about 5%. Surprisingly, when the spread was more than 10, the dog covered at a lower %age. So, it doesn't matter who the teams are, what their record is, who is injured etc., etc., it only mattered how far off Vegas was from 50/50. The more they missed by on a particular parameter, would be my main consideration as to whom I'd bet on. I was evaluating the performance of Vegas, not the teams.

If you're betting real money with a bookie, you're still probably going to lose because the 10% juice is more than any parameter I looked at. But if you're betting in a pool where there is no juice, it may give you a slight advantage.

Listen, KD, I know you are very knowledgeable and have done quite well, but if anybody thinks that they know more than Vegas and which factors are more important is deluding themselves. IMO.

Fine football betting analysis.