MLB Free Agent Season

[maurice93]

My bad I misread. Still doesn't change my mind much. To be honest I wouldn't have signed either of them. Why not take a chance on Mike Soroka, a Canadian kid. Or Jack Flaherty. Or even Shane Bieber who I know is coming off of Tommy John surgery but is a former Cy Young winner.

I'm certainly not claiming its a great deal either -- could be fine for a 4th starter if (and it's not a minor if) he stays healthy. But there is downside too. Just that its either a bit better than or certainly no worse than Verlander.

As for the other options - there has to be mutual interest. I would of liked Flaherty, but is would have been around 2/54 or 3/75 in my view to get it done.

My first thought when I saw Flaherty at the published 2/35 figure a few days back, was that's a lot better than Scherzer and a great deal. But that deal is a bit misrepresentative -- if he makes 15 starts in 2025, it goes up to 2/45. So only way he gets paid $35m, is if he has a bad year in 2025, so the contract ends up being a bad one. I would still like Flaherty at 2/45.... but then you add in a few mill for taxes, and then the fact that Flaherty really liked it in Detroit in 2024 and had his best performance there since 2021. To beat Detroit's 2/45, your probably looking at 2/54 or 3/75. Do you go there for someone who struggled in 2022 and 2023. Not sure, maybe though. And again is he interested in Toronto? Probably didn't help that we wasted $5M of budget space on Myles freaking Straw.

Bieber wanted to stay in Cleveland. They got him done early in FA season, not a realistic target for the Jays.

As for Soroka at $9m, its a risky contract.. I think I prefer Scherzer at $15m - even age considered its less injury and performance risk. Soroka hasn't been good since 2019. Hurt basically all of 20, 21, 22. And in the 15 starts in 2023/2024 he was absolutely terrible -- 15 starts at 6.38 ERA. It does seem he finally figured it out with the White Sox as a reliever in 2024. Getting out of the White Sox should help anyone though.

 

[maurice93]

I don't count 2020/2021 stats it was Covid and things were messed up. The only thing I can explain in 2022 was that he was very unhappy and not focused. 2023 is what made me believe that he hadn't 'lost' it. OK maybe the stats are inflated based on metrics but 2024 regression wasn't just him - Swanson, Hoerner, Morel all were down from their 2023 stats. Also lets face it the Cubs aren't a great hitting lineup like the Yankees are. Which is why I expect Bellinger will be somewhere closer to his 2017-2019, 2023 stats. I easily see him hitting 30 bombs and 90+ RBI batting 5th in the lineup.

2020 for sure. 2021 things were largely back to 100% normal in MLB in the states, except for the Jays. Anyway lots of excuses for various years. He was however the best player in baseball in 2019 (arguably) and he is still only 29, so maybe I will be surprised. We will come back to this one at year end!

Regarding the Yankees lineup, is it really a good lineup top to bottom?
If he is batting in front of Judge he will get some protection stats boost, but studies have found that while its not NIL its not as significant as people expect. If he is batting behind Judge, its not a bad lineup but you are not surrounded by much better than what the Cubs had last year.

A general point more on the Yanks (rather than Bellinger), I don't see this great deep Yankees lineup. Judge is the best hitter in baseball.
Stanton? He was great in the 24 playoffs, but he has not been a good hitter since 2021.
Goldschmidt? He was really good as late as 2022, but he has been on a steady decline and is coming off a sub 100 OPS at the age of 37.
Chisholm? 99 and 107 OPS the last 2 years. Although he was very good in a small sample with the Yanks (130), so we shall see on this one. Jazz and NY might be a good fit,

Wells and Volpe are young so there might be progression.

 

[maurice93]

I’ve seen YouTube video breakdowns about his hard hit ball percentage as well and all that stuff.. I just always get a feeling about this guy that if he works hard, he will have success. I feel like he’s got many good years left. Cody might become the Brett Saberhagen of hitting. One good year, one stinker, one good year, one stinker, etc., etc.……

Philip

Bret Saberhagen - great name from the past. Your point is valid on him - great years in 1985, 89, 94. In the other years he wasn't bad -- either an average starter or a good starter, but not close to an elite like one of those either years. Bellinger has had a couple of stinkers.

We shall see on Bellinger. As I mentioned in my post to KD, he is still 29. And had an epic year as a 23 year old. I'm not counting on him being terroble, but I think an OPS+ season of 110-115 (just above average) rather than a season of 135+.... or would need to be over 140 if he got to 40 homeruns. Let's revisit this one at year end.

 

[maurice93]

…. he also spoke poorly against the organization and questioned the organization. That’s ALSO a bad apple in a bunch. Not saying he was wrong……

Philip

Bassitt's a bit of a strange guy,
That being said I listened to that whole interview with Chris Rose as I listen to the talkin baseball group of podcasts from time to time biking. The whole interview wasn't really bad at all, unlike the snippets that were pulled, which taken alone (outside of the context of the whole interview) didn't sound good. But I found listening to the whole interview allowed me to appreciate the context behind some of those comments more - they sound very different if taken as part of what he was saying over the 30 minutes.

I don't really think he is a bad apple. Teammates seem to like him, even though he is very aloof on the mound. Seems to be a great influence for someone like Francis. He was also apparently fairly important in getting Scherzer done. And I could be wrong, but I think he was one of the guys that showed up for the Jays as they tried to recruit Sasaki.

 

[roddermac]

So much for your Jays Insider

Alonso returns to Mets on two-year, $54 million deal

PORT ST. LUCIE, Fla. -- Days before Pete Alonso agreed to return to the Mets, he met at a Tampa social club with his agent, Scott Boras, Mets owner Steve Cohen and president of baseball operations David Stearns. The agenda was simple. Cohen and Stearns wanted to let Alonso know

www.mlb.com

 

[shack]

So much for your Jays Insider

It should be renamed "Jays Ignorer". It's total bullshit sensationalism.

 

[roddermac]

It should be renamed "Jays Ignorer". It's total bullshit sensationalism.

Like most of these self name reporters and podcasters

 

[shack]

Like most of these self name reporters and podcasters

Blockbuster announcement
Massive trade proposal
Babe Ruth projected to sign with...

 

[maurice93]

I think the "insiders" are accurate -- we are very much in on these guys like Alonso, but we are either being used for leverage or as a secondary fallback position. We can make offers because we are a rich team.

I'll give a few positives about these second place finishes -- be it leverage or fallback
1) Reason we finish second so often is that we are willing to have a huge payroll. Rogers is paying up to a level not seen in the Ricciardi or AA days. We are a top 5 payroll as of now from what I saw after signing Scherzer and Santander - Rogers wants to win.
2) Finishing second with Sasaki (where money the team could pay was irrelevant) , shows that our market / brand still has some attraction to star players.

Note both #1 and #2 are fully independent of Shatkins - they are actually hindrances to them at this point. The quicker we can move on from Shatkins the better -- so that #1 and #2 are still assets moving forward Our attendance is way above anybody else in baseball below .500. And our TV numbers are the highest in baseball by a fair amount. Let's hope they don't get eroded much.

I also think if the team was at the level it was after the 2021 (or even 2022 season), we would have allure not to be a secondary fallback for some players.

 

[shack]

Note both #1 and #2 are fully independent of Shatkins -

As I was reading your post, this is exactly what I was thinking.

Kudos to Rogers. It's unfortunate that he hired a couple of incompetent guys. (Atkins indirectly)

 

[maurice93]

As I was reading your post, this is exactly what I was thinking.

Kudos to Rogers. It's unfortunate that he hired a couple of incompetent guys. (Atkins indirectly)

Yes the kudos can only be partial at this point.
1) There is spending (A Pass) 2) There is hiring/firing. (A Fail)

Unlike others here I was pretty happy about where the Jays were at the end of 2021 and gave Shatkins a much better grade than others. But since then it has been a disaster. In 2021 -- Youth, smart moves on vets, and a system that had become top 10 in baseball that had helped in trades (Berrios) and looked like it was going to produce for the big team. But most of those prospects have flopped, have not been replaced, and the younger guys that came up a year or two before 2021, in 2021, or in 2022 have almost all had periods of signficant regression. Even someone like Vlad, while great in 2024, fell apart relatively for a few years. Too many developmental issues, at the big league level included.

 

[onomatopoeia]

... And our TV numbers are the highest in baseball by a fair amount...

This I strongly doubt. There are probably more TV viewers in Japan watching the Dodgers than the entire audience for the Blue Jays.

These numbers are not for 2024, but they are recent:



The Blue Jays get an equal cut of the revenue from the US nationally televised games. If they appear at all on US network TV during the regular season, it would be by contractual obligation.

 

[maurice93]

This I strongly doubt. There are probably more TV viewers in Japan watching the Dodgers than the entire audience for the Blue Jays.

These numbers are not for 2024, but they are recent:

View attachment 404279

The Blue Jays get an equal cut of the revenue from the US nationally televised games. If they appear at all on US network TV during the regular season, it would be by contractual obligation.

The Jays local TV audience numbers for the Jays are the best in baseball (if you keep it to the local market) I'm trying to find the article I found last year and posted on another board. The Jays are helped by the fact that their local TV area is now 40 million people, which is the largest in baseball, and far above the average of the 30 teams.

If you add Japan then I 100% agree the Dodgers home broadcasts get more fans. But those revenues are shared as they are part of the international pool. There are ways though the Dodgers can benefit solely from Japan ball games (merch + auxiliary deals).

That $200M in the table is the Dodgers local TV deal only.. it doesn't include Japan -- its an absurdly large contract that dwarfs everybody, giving them a huge advantage.

Your revenue table is irrelevant as it pertains to the Jays, Almost all the teams above have a local TV contract with a non-related entity, so the number stated in the table is the real value of the deal. The Jays deal is likely an intercompany charge, between the Jays and another division with Rogers, so its not representative of the fair value of the contract.

The fact that the Jays are spending like crazy, despite being part of a public company who care about profits. shows that they are deriving lots of money from their local TV broadcasts.

 

[Toronto Passions]

So many Mets podcasters are so confident that they sign Guerrero this next off season. Just saying….

Philip

 

[The Oracle]

So many Mets podcasters are so confident that they sign Guerrero this next off season. Just saying….

Philip

Hands off!!.......He's Yankee bound...He's going to look great in Pinstripes and will be a perfect fit in the Bronx

 

[roddermac]

Blockbuster announcement
Massive trade proposal
Babe Ruth projected to sign with...

Supposedly Pete Alonso was signing a $166 million deal with the Blue Jays.

 

[Toronto Passions]

Supposedly Pete Alonso was signing a $166 million deal with the Blue Jays.

…this is why I don’t take that podcast “Jays Digest“ very seriously. Popular podcasts have so much ability to spin rumors out of control. According to that guy, Nick Goss, or whatever his name is, such shit talk, optimism, spinning rumors out of control. The most reputable off-season reporting in Toronto comes from Ben Nicholson Smith and Shi Davidi.

Philip

 

[roddermac]

Are you really buying the magic beans this dumbass is selling.

 

[roddermac]

I don't mind his videos at all. IMHO, no such thing as too much sports information!!

It's not too much information. It's too much misinformation. This gut and zero sources and just makes shit up in a way he would like to see the Jays managed.

 

[Toronto Passions]

Are you really buying the magic beans this dumbass is selling.

In my personal opinion, the two top podcasts for the Jays are Blair and Barker and The Walk Off podcast. I am such a loyal subscriber to the walk off that I post questions as I support their Patreon, that they read on Tuesdays mailbag. I am such a baseball nerd. It’s not even funny. This question is from “Philip“

Philip