Jays 2023

ETH

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I have no idea what your "hope" is all about. He's our starting centre fielder so I'm not sure what you think will happen that he ends up being a bench player.
I have no idea what your condescension is all about. He's going to sit against lefties, and I hope a scenario presents itself where he ends up on the bench for most of the year.
 

black booty lover

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I have no idea what your condescension is all about. He's going to sit against lefties, and I hope a scenario presents itself where he ends up on the bench for most of the year. Not difficult to figure out, BBL.
He's not going to sit that much against lefties. He was brought in to be the centre fielder and prevent runs. So unless he breaks in leg, it's wishful thinking.
 

black booty lover

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KK is probably the kind of guy that you hate when he's on the other team but love his doggedness when he's running down fly balls for your team. (Not so much when he's leaving guys stranded on base every game. LOL.)

BTW, isn't it an unwritten rule that the centre fielder has priority over either of the other fielders if he wants to go for the ball?
yes, he's the captain of the outfield sort of speak, but within reason. I mean if a fly ball is hit right at one of the other fielders, and they can camp out under it and get a better throw off, you don't jump in front them with your momentum going the wrong way because you think you have a "unique skill set"...lol.
 
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ETH

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He's not going to sit that much against lefties. He was brought in to be the centre fielder and prevent runs. So unless he breaks in leg, it's wishful thinking.
It's rational thinking. Kiermaier has a career WRC+ of 84 vs LHP. Merrifield has a career WRC+ of 115 vs LHP. That's a spread of more than 20 points, and Varsho and Springer have good enough D to make up for some of the drop in D going from KK to WM.
 

black booty lover

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It's rational thinking. Kiermaier has a career WRC+ of 84 vs LHP. Merrifield has a career WRC+ of 115 vs LHP. That's a spread of more than 20 points, and Varsho and Springer have good enough D to make up for some of the drop in D going from KK to WM.
You've completely moved the goal posts. Your original comment was you hope he's a bench player. I'm telling you that's wishful thinking and quite frankly not rational thinking. Despite his arrogant cockiness and the fact he thinks he's god's gift to the outfield, he's your starting centre fielder. If healthy, he will absolutely help prevent runs and brings much needed balance to what was a way heavy RH batting line up last year. Even against lefties, he will see his fair share of playing time, and when he doesn't start, he'll come in after LH starters have been pulled. Hence my original reply.

WM and CB might get the odd start and maybe rotate in here or there, but the bulk of the time is going to KK.
 

ETH

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You've completely moved the goal posts. Your original comment was you hope he's a bench player. I'm telling you that's wishful thinking and quite frankly not rational thinking. Despite his arrogant cockiness and the fact he thinks he's god's gift to the outfield, he's your starting centre fielder. If healthy, he will absolutely help prevent runs and brings much needed balance to what was a way heavy RH batting line up last year. Even against lefties, he will see his fair share of playing time, and when he doesn't start, he'll come in after LH starters have been pulled. Hence my original reply.

WM and CB might get the odd start and maybe rotate in here or there, but the bulk of the time is going to KK.
My hope for him to be a bench player was/is mostly emotional, but what's rational is that he's not good enough to be guaranteed a starting position. Obviously a platoon player, ofc. But his defense took a big step back last year. In 2022 he played in half as many games as he did in 2021, yet his dWar was a quarter of what was in '21. In half as many games/innings, his OAA was 1 compared to 11 the year before, and ditto for his RAA (1 compared to 10 the previous year). But since he lost half the year due to injury, then look at a non-volume stat like UZR/150, which was down 75% last year over '21.

His sprint speed and arm strength are still elite, but there's more to outfield defense than just running and throwing. We'll see how often he plays, but it's not wishful thinking to think he could end up on the bench if he underperforms in his platoon role/we make another trade.
 

black booty lover

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if he underperforms in his platoon role/we make another trade.
He's not really in a platoon role. Again, the odd time against a starting LH, they will put WM out there (be it left and moving Springer or Varsho to centre, or actually putting him centre), but this is KK's job to lose. He was brought in to play centre field and help reduce runs.

If he under performs (which will be hard to do compared to last season) or gets hurt, maybe they pivot and try and fix it. Expect him to play the bulk of the time for the full season in centre. Again, your over thinking this or wishful thinking. Get acquainted with your new centre fielder.
 

ETH

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He's not really in a platoon role. Again, the odd time against a starting LH, they will put WM out there (be it left and moving Springer or Varsho to centre, or actually putting him centre), but this is KK's job to lose. He was brought in to play centre field and help reduce runs.

If he under performs (which will be hard to do compared to last season) or gets hurt, maybe they pivot and try and fix it. Expect him to play the bulk of the time for the full season in centre. Again, your over thinking this or wishful thinking. Get acquainted with your new centre fielder.
I am rationally overthinking a wishful scenario.

lol, good debate though!
 
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onomatopoeia

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Vlad Guerrero Jr has 2.157 years of Major League service time, and his 2023 contract is for $14.5 Million.

Bo Bichette has 2.063 years of Major League service time, and the Jays are offering him $5 Million for 2023, (he's asking for $7.5M).

This is a really stupid move for the Jays, if they plan to keep Bichette beyond 2026, when both player potentially become eligible for Free Agency. If they really wanted to piss off Bichette, they would option him to AAA for .064 of the season, (11 games), and he wouldn't be eligible for Free Agency until 2027.

The $5 Million offered to Bichette is 10% less than Yimi Garcia's 2023 contract.
 

shack

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Vlad Guerrero Jr has 2.157 years of Major League service time, and his 2023 contract is for $14.5 Million.

Bo Bichette has 2.063 years of Major League service time, and the Jays are offering him $5 Million for 2023, (he's asking for $7.5M).

This is a really stupid move for the Jays, if they plan to keep Bichette beyond 2026, when both player potentially become eligible for Free Agency. If they really wanted to piss off Bichette, they would option him to AAA for .064 of the season, (11 games), and he wouldn't be eligible for Free Agency until 2027.

The $5 Million offered to Bichette is 10% less than Yimi Garcia's 2023 contract.
I just read that he's projected to make $6.1M via arbitration. I project that they'll settle before the hearing for $6.2.
 
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onomatopoeia

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I just read that he's projected to make $6.1M via arbitration. I project that they'll settle before the hearing for $6.2.
That's impossible. If his case goes to arbitration, he'll either get the $7.5 Million he asked for, or the $5 Million the club offered, and no figure in between. That's how salary arbitration works. I'm surprised that someone your age and professed level of knowledge didn't already know that.

Even offering $6.2 Million would be insulting, after they just gave Vlad $14.5 Million.
 

onomatopoeia

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arbitration.png

Teoscar Hernandez is asking for $16 Million, and has been offered $14 Million. He'll be a free agent after the 2023 season. if he doesn't sign an extension. Daulton Varscho has four more seasons of club control. That difference, effectively, is the value of Gabe Moreno as a prospect.
 

onomatopoeia

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Friday's deadline wasn't particularly significant. It's only significance to for scheduling future arbitration hearings. It's also common for players to sign multi-year contract extensions while awaiting an arbitration hearing. If the case goes as far as the arbitrator, however, the player's salary will be either what he demanded, or what the club offered, and always a one year contract.

The arbitration cases are not necessarily all held before the season starts. Last year, Aaron Judge avoided arbitration with the Yankees by signing a one year contract on June 24. In a case like Bichette's, his regular season pay prior to an arbitration hearing would be based on the team's offer, (ie: the minimum salary), and the difference would be paid to him if he won his arbitration case, if it comes to that.

Arbitration cases often create 'bad blood' relationships between players and their team. It's like a company performance review, by a manager who doesn't like you personally, or doesn't want to give you a raise.
 

shack

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the player's salary will be either what he demanded, or what the club offered, and always a one year contract.
So what does this line from the article mean?
Arbitration hearings will take place between Jan. 30 and Feb. 17. MLB Trade Rumors has Bichette projected to make $6.1 million in arbitration.

Is that a mistake?
 

funstick

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So what does this line from the article mean?
Arbitration hearings will take place between Jan. 30 and Feb. 17. MLB Trade Rumors has Bichette projected to make $6.1 million in arbitration.

Is that a mistake?
Not sure of the context of this projection but @onomatopoeia is correct. The salary abritation panel must choose between the two submissions; either the player's salary request or the team's offer. The process does not allow for in between options.

 
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onomatopoeia

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So what does this line from the article mean?
Arbitration hearings will take place between Jan. 30 and Feb. 17. MLB Trade Rumors has Bichette projected to make $6.1 million in arbitration.

Is that a mistake?
The $6.1 Million prediction for Bichette's 2023 salary was from an article published in October, 2021. It's really difficult to find the article, because mlbtraderumours(dot)com doesn't have separate urls for each story.

The guy who made the prediction uses mathematical algorithms that are based on Major League service, statistics, and historical data of salaries for arbitration-eligible players with similar profiles. Earlier on Saturday, your sportsnet(dot)ca link had a sublink leading directly to that story, but now it goes to the current news page of mlbtraderumours(dot)com. His $6.1 Million figure was determined some months before either Bichette or the Jays submitted their asking and offering prices.

If I was Bichette, I would be insulted by an offer that's just 34.5% of what they gave Guerrero. He's asking for 51.7%. He'd be a much happier camper if they gave him what he's asking for. Trying to save chump change now might cost them a huge additional amount when he can sign anywhere. Consider the difference between what the Yankees offered Aaron Judge last year, ($230 Million for 8 years), and what they had to pony up to keep him, (9 years, $360 Million). There's a sizeable luxury tax penalty on top of that, as well.
 

roadhog

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So what does this line from the article mean?
Arbitration hearings will take place between Jan. 30 and Feb. 17. MLB Trade Rumors has Bichette projected to make $6.1 million in arbitration.

Is that a mistake?
He wants $7.5M, Jays are offering $5M.

 
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