Yes I agree that a long protracted war if it stays conventional will eventually result in a Russian loss. But politically there is NO WAY that Europe would remain united over the 10-15 years of brutal hardship and Russia today IMHO has far superior means to strike European bases and ships. AND if Russia starts to lose, it will eventually resort to using tactical nukes on Germany and the other non nuclear states, the USA will not give the UK the keys to its Trident missiles as they would fear a nuclear war with RUssia and France will not stick its neck out unless it was hit by a nuke. Italy will be unlikely to go along and Poland will be the first one vaporized. You have to keep an eye on the ledger and Russia would have no hesitation killing 20m Germans to balance it and they will flatten Finland at the drop of hat over the siege of Leningrad. Poles are once again betting their nation and toxic rhetoric on a piece of paper. Its not lost on Russia that one of the longest periods of peace in Europe was when all the mouthy trouble makers were under the boot of the USSR.