Robbie Ray’s $115 million is worth more in Seattle because Washington has no state income tax. That may have been a factor in his decision.
The draft pick compensation for each of Ray and Semien could also be a factor in the Jays' decision. They'll be in the 31-40 range next June. Gausman accepted a qualifying offer last year, so there's no compensation for him.
In an earlier post about compensation for losing free agents that received and declined the qualifying offer, some of my post was incorrect; the signing team DOES lose a draft pick, I'm not sure which one. The pick received by the team losing a free agent is dependent on their team payroll, with 'revenue sharing' small market teams getting higher picks, and teams above the luxury tax threshold receiving compensation in the fourth round.
Based on what they were paid, what they produced, and what they get back for losing them, the Jays made out like bandits on both Ray and Semien, (total salary of $26.9 Million for 2021). Based on the signing bonuses that will be paid, the prospects they get in return will be worth several million dollars. Taking a one year flyer on a free agent who would be eligible for a qualifying offer sounds like a great GM strategy - If Matz had had a good enough year to have been worth the QO, the prospect they would have gotten for losing him might have been more valuable than what he was paid. The same scenario could have also applied to Kirby Yates, he was also on a 1 year contract, and QO eligible. I hope other teams' GMs are not reading this thread!
The Raptors have used a similar strategy, acquiring a cheap player, developing him, and making no effort to re-sign him when he becomes a free agent, and would cost much more than he would be worth. A great example is Bismack Biyombo; the Raptors got a good season out of him for $3 Million. Orlando got a pine rider for $17 Million/ year for multiple years. Depleting other teams' salary caps with marginal talent that is difficult to unload on some other team is good NBA strategy.
When Michelina's frozen entrees are a dollar in the grocery store, (at least once every two months), I fill my freezer with them. When they're $1.89 each, I don't buy one; I eat the ones I bought for a dollar, or I wait until they're a dollar again.