Blue Jays 2010

[TGirl Nikki]

Griffin immediately jumped to the defense of the author, Geoff Baker. Griffin always hated Ricciards, and wasted no time attacking him on the same lines. So, yeah, that was him. Being a moron, like always. One of the idiotic things he said was that the Jays wouldn't have taken Jackie Robinson, if he were around today. BTW, Guerrero isn't a good example - by OBP standards, he's an elite player. The Moneyball problem with him is that he's also an elite slugger, so he's overvalued.

Vladimir Guerrero has an O-swing percentage of 46.5% (the % of pitches outside the zone that he swings at) which is highest in MLB:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/439507-the-5-least-disciplined-hitters#page/6

His high OBP is due to the fact that he's considered a "good bad-ball hitter" so he fouls off a lot pitches that other hitters would strike out on, and puts a lot of bad pitches in play that other hitters would miss or foul off. Despite his success, he's still the least-disciplined hitter in the majors, and there's really no disputing those statistics. Even in his possibly-Hall-of-Fame career, he'll still finish with an O-swing percentage around 40%, which is extremely high, and by Moneyball standards, makes the player undesireable. Tejada's O-swing % in 2002 (the year when Lewis was writing Moneyball) was 38%, among the top five in the majors; Eric Chavez was at 34%. Both of them were constant targets of criticism from Beane for their unwillingness to take pitches or draw walks.

Nobody's suggesting that Guerrero isn't a great hitter, but he's certainly not a disciplined hitter. Again, the culture among Dominican ballplayers is that they have to "hit their way off the island." If you want to get the attention of international scouts, you're not going to do it by taking a lot of walks; you're going to do it by crushing the ball out of the park. Hence, the cultural influences that lead to poor plate discipline.

Edit: Here's a list of players with the worst O-swing rates in 2010, and it's clear that there are a lot of Latin players near the top of the list, especially players from the Dominican Republic:

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=5&season=2010&month=0

Jackie Robinson's college statistics weren't very good, for a variety of reasons; according to wikipedia, Robinson only hit .097 during his first year at UCLA. If that were the main factor being considered (and for a lot of GMs, it's the biggest one) then yes, he probably wouldn't have been drafed by the Jays. Not because of his race, but because his stats weren't what Moneyballers like Billy Beane and J.P. Ricciardi were looking for. It was a stupid article about a sensitive topic, and it basically killed the Jays' season - but it's hard to get upset at someone for correctly displaying the statistical facts.

Also, I find it hard to get mad at Griffin for hating on Ricciardi - IMHO, he was one of the worst GMs our team has ever had (though Gord Ash is a definite contender for that title). Ricciardi's piss-poor draft record, crappy free-agent signings, and the Vernon Wells albatross contract certainly support that position, and I don't know anyone who thinks Ricciardi did a good job running our team.

 

[mbaileyajc]

They messed up, one of them should have backed up the other and hold Martinez to a double and maybe even a single. It turned out OK, but it could have cost them the game. Why even attempt to catch it at that point in the game ? I was thinking 'oh no' when Martinez made it all the way to third.
I probably would have been saying "What a great catch !" if Wells or Snider had caught it.

Sorry for the delayed response, was focusing on football yesterday so didnt get a chance to respond to this note. Of course, I agree that fundamentally it wasnt sound because Wells or Snider should have backed the other one up so there definitely was a miscommunication on that play however I thought Wise did a great job to get over from his RF spot to back both Wells and Snider up (if I'm not mistaken Wise was a defensive substitution in that inning as well) and limit Martinez to a triple instead of an inside the park HR.

 

[Kilgore Trout]

Wise did a great job to get over from his RF spot ... and limit Martinez to a triple instead of an inside the park HR.

My jaw just dropped 2 feet to the ground when I saw Snider and Wells up against the wall like that missing the ball.
Thought for sure it was going to be an inside the park home run. Nice play by Wise to come that far over and back it up.

 

[mandrill]

I think that Ricciardi did a far better job than Gord Ashe as GM. Ricciardi was managing at a time when player's contracts were inflationary and the Wells contract was "reasonable" based on Wells' All-Star seasons at the time he was re signed. In fact, I recall the buzz being that whether Ricciardi would meet Wells' price being a test of R's cojones and the Blue Jays' "will to win" in a division where they were competing with 2 other free spending teams.

Ashe was an idiot, pure and simple. While you cannot ensure that all the players you trade for stay healthy, Ashe paid top price for a whole succession of the sickest pitchers in the history of baseball - Hanson, Hamilton, Sirotka, etc etc. And who else did he sign or develop who was even semi respectable? Stewart, Green and Delgado were all signed in the Gillick era.

 

[mandrill]

I think the jury is undecided anyway on the concept of "moneyball" being a genuine recipe for success - as opposed to a marketing pitch pushed out by an organization that simpy didn't want to spend a lot of $.

The Oakland A's have again sunk to the middle of the pack in a less competitive division. And it is highly debatable that moneyball would work anyway in the AL East where the NYY and Bosox outspend everybody by a wide margin and where the Rays have cashed in brilliantly on a decade of high draft choices.

 

[TGirl Nikki]

I'm not sure why I didn't realize this before, but we've only had three GMs before A.A. (Gillick, Ash and Ricciardi) so my "one of the worst GMs" statement probably doesn't apply. I think we can all agree that Gillick was the best, and A.A. is unproven at this point, so the "worst GM" title is a toss-up between Ash & Ricciardi.

And who else did he sign or develop who was even semi respectable? Stewart, Green and Delgado were all signed in the Gillick era.[/COLOR]

http://espn.go.com/mlb/draft/history/_/team/tor

Blue Jays 1st-round draft picks from 1995-2001 (Ash era):

Roy Halladay
Joe Lawrence
Billy Koch
Vernon Wells
Alex Rios
Miguel Negron
Gabe Gross

Blue Jays 1st-round draft picks from 2002-2008 (Ricciardi era):

Russ Adams
Aaron Hill
David Purcey
Ricky Romero
Travis Snider
Kevin Ahrens
JP Arencibia
David Cooper
Chad Jenkins (did not sign)

Granted, that's only 1st-rounders, but I have a hard time believing the Ricciardi list will prove to be better than the Ash list. Hill, Romero and Snider have potential to be great, but I'd be hard-pressed to compare them to Halladay, Wells and Rios at this point. In fact, I'd argue that Halladay is the best player the Jays have ever drafted, and being a high-schooler, I suspect J.P. would have passed on him entirely... but that's another debate for another time.

I'm not suggesting Ash was a good GM by any stretch, but he had his moments:

- Signing Roger Clemens (who won the Cy Young and pitcher's Triple Crown both years he was here)
- Trading a disgruntled Clemens for David Wells & Homer Bush (both of whom played well for us)
- Signing Canseco during his rebound year in 1998 (juiced to be sure, but 46 HRs for $500,000 is a pretty good ROI)
- Trading soon-to-be free agent Shawn Green for Raul Mondesi (not a 100% return, but not bad under the circumstances)
- Keeping Delgado during his prime
- Jose Cruz Jr., Tony Batista, Darrin Fletcher, and Brad Fullmer all had career years during the Ash period

The Jays' best record since '93 also came during the Ash era (88-74 in 1998) and it was also the last time we've seriously competed for the Wild Card - we were in contention until the final week of the season. Also, Ash was much more affected by the ownership situation during his tenure than Ricciardi; Ash had to deal with payroll constraints set by Interbrew, whereas JP took over in 2002, two years after Rogers had purchased the team in 2000. Rogers opened their wallets for AJ Burnett, BJ Ryan, and Frank Thomas... and we all know how those guys turned out. My personal opinion is that Ricciardi was slightly worse than Ash, based on his poor-to-mediocre draft record, his penchant for bad contracts (I would have mentioned Rios if Ricciardi hadn't been lucky enough to dump him on the White Sox before the extension kicked in) and the fact that he sacrificed consistent improvement for a win-or-bust approach to placate his own ego.

We can argue about this all day, so why don't we just agree that neither of them was nearly as good as Gillick, and neither of them did a good enough job to return us to contention?



Lastly, regarding Moneyball, JP was a former scout for the A's, and he's quoted many times in the book; he's even one of the people Lewis thanks in the introduction. The basic philosophy is getting maximum value out of players by focusing on previously-overlooked and less-glamourous stats (like OBP, runs created, and K/BB ratio, which were largely ignored in favour of less-valuable but more-popular stats like saves, batting average and RBIs), and plate discipline was a huge part of the A's approach to hitting. The reason Lewis called the book Moneyball is solely because the A's didn't have any payroll flexibility, so they had to make the most of their limited resources, but the sabremetric focus that worked for the A's in early part of the decade was definitely embraced by Ricciardi. The draft aspect was only one element of the book, and there are several chapters (such as "Scott Hatteberg, Pickin' Machine") dedicated to the immense value of plate discipline. In 2001, OPS was a practically-unheard-of statistic; nowadays, it's one of the primary stats that sportswriters cite when discussing who should win the MVP. Moneyball was simply the title of the book about what Billy Beane (and more precisely, Paul DePodesta, and long before him, Bill James) knew that the rest of the league didn't.

You can see this in many of JP's early moves - trading Billy Koch for Eric Hinske; Shannon Stewart for Bobby Kielty (who was later flipped for Ted Lilly); and not investing in the bullpen are all examples of his dedication to the Moneyball school of thought. The reason we couldn't compete is because the Yankees, and especially the Red Sox under Theo Epstein, were able to harness this philosophy without having to be fiscally prudent. The Yankees have one of the most patient lineups in baseball, and the Red Sox (often called "Moneyball with money") combined this approach with the second-highest payroll in the majors to win a pair of World Series titles. They were still a free-spending team before then, but it was only after Epstein took over (and started signing guys like David Ortiz) that they started winning championships.

Edit: Moneyball didn't just help the A's compete - it helped me win a good deal of money in fantasy baseball. I remember reading that book on the plane, cover to cover, when I visited the Bay Area in August 2003; within hours of touching down, I opened my laptop, made a couple of shrewd trades, and ran away with my fantasy league's title... my first of three straight championships among my university friends.

I don't play in fantasy leagues anymore (too time-consuming) but that book helped me see the game in a brand-new way - if you haven't read it already, I highly recommend it, along with "Baseball Between the Numbers: Why Everything You Know About the Game is Wrong" by Jonah Keri from Baseball Prospectus. Trust me, you'll own the fantasy leagues if you do.

 

[gcostanza]

I'm not sure why I didn't realize this before, but we've only had three GMs before A.A. (Gillick, Ash and Ricciardi) so my "one of the worst GMs" statement probably doesn't apply. I think we can all agree that Gillick was the best, and A.A. is unproven at this point, so the "worst GM" title is a toss-up between Ash & Ricciardi.

You forgot Peter Bavasi.

 

[TGirl Nikki]

You forgot Peter Bavasi.

Oops, you're right - forgive me, that was before I was born.

 

[Kilgore Trout]

Blue Jays 1st-round draft picks from 2002-2008 (Ricciardi era):


Chad Jenkins (did not sign)

.

Chad Jenkins signed and played at Lansing and Dunedin this past season:
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=554432

You might be thinking about James Paxton, who was taken in the supplemental round 1A, #37 overall, by Toronto and didn't sign.
Ended up falling down to #132 overall this year to Seattle and he still hasn't signed with them.
Paxton seems like a strange guy so glad Jays didn't sign him. He turned down a million dollar signing bonus with Toronto and where he was drafted this past year he's entitled to about 250K usually.

Paxton was playing minor ball this spring with Grand Prairie Airhogs in an indenpendent league in the States ; but, quit the team after he was drafted by Seattle because he didn't want to endanger his signing bonus in case he had lousy starts.
What an idiot. Probably lowered the amount the Mariners willing to pay him.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/baseball/james-paxtons-stock-plummets/article1597034/

 

[TGirl Nikki]

Chad Jenkins signed and played at Lansing and Dunedin this past season:
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=554432

You might be thinking about James Paxton, who was taken in the supplemental round 1A, #37 overall, by Toronto and didn't sign.
Ended up falling down to #132 overall this year to Seattle and he still hasn't signed with them.
Paxton seems like a strange guy so glad Jays didn't sign him. He turned down a million dollar signing bonus with Toronto and where he was drafted this past year he's entitled to about 250K usually.

Paxton was playing minor ball this spring with Grand Prairie Airhogs in an indenpendent league in the States ; but, quit the team after he was drafted by Seattle because he didn't want to endanger his signing bonus in case he had lousy starts.
What an idiot. Probably lowered the amount the Mariners willing to pay him.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/baseball/james-paxtons-stock-plummets/article1597034/

Yes, you're right on both counts - I knew we hadn't signed one of our first-rounders from last year, I just got them mixed up.

Thanks for clearing that up, and for the update - sounds like it was a good thing we didn't sign him, especially since we got an extra comp pic in 2010 because of it.

 

[Kilgore Trout]

Yea, they got Noah Syndergaard as comp for not signing Paxton and he looks like a much better prospect.
18 years old. Pitches to contact for ground outs. Likely 4 years away. (It took Halladay 6 or 7 years to 'get it' after being drafted out of high school.)

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=592789

http://mopupduty.com/index.php/toronto-blue-jays-prospect-watch/

http://www.bluejaysrant.com/2010/06/interview-with-blue-jays-draft-pick-noah-syndergaard.html/

 

[mandrill]

Thanks to T-girl for a lengthy and interesting post about Ashe.

I guess my response is that whether your #1 draft pick pans out is pretty much a crapshoot for any GM and not necessarily a sign of relative competence.

Re the rest of the post, Clemens was - IIRC - a Paul Beeston deal and he was BOUND to get prime compensation when we had to trade him away. As far as the Mondesi deal is concerned, well......... At least Canseco was "colourful". (Ahem!)

What I remember about the Ashe years though is the ongoing sordid incompetence on all levels. The TJ fiasco. Shawn Green and Clemens demanding to leave, The fall when the Jays fired all their minor league scouts. The Buck Martinez hiring. The endless mega spending on dead arm pitchers (which I mentioned above). The benito Santiago contract - $5mill for a guy who would have an injury plagued stint with the J's. The Carlos Garcia fiasco.

And yes, the 1 year they competed for the WC, Ashe and TJ (his flunky) had given up on the season at the All Star break and traded away their (cough, cough) "stars" to the usual buyers. They started to give playing time to Stewart and Green and a couple of others and - hey, presto - all of a sudden we were shit-kicking the Yanks' ass and posting a .700 record through the second half of the season. Under other circumstances, Ashe and TJ would have sat the kids until the season was over.

The list of pathetic, Ballard-like crap drivels on endlessly.

At least Ricciardi had some pretence to being a ML calibre exec.

 

[TGirl Nikki]

Thanks to Nikki for a lengthy and interesting post about Ashe.

I guess my response is that whether your #1 draft pick pans out is pretty much a crapshoot for any GM and not necessarily a sign of relative competence.
...
And yes, the 1 year they competed for the WC, Ashe and TJ (his flunky) had given up on the season at the All Star break and traded away their (cough, cough) "stars" to the usual buyers. They started to give playing time to Stewart and Green and a couple of others and - hey, presto - all of a sudden we were shit-kicking the Yanks' ass and posting a .700 record through the second half of the season. Under other circumstances, Ashe and TJ would have sat the kids until the season was over.
...
At least Ricciardi had some pretence to being a ML calibre exec.

I agree that the draft is unpredictable, but first-rounders are usually expected to be good players, and they're scouted heavily beforehand... there's a lot less guesswork in the first round than in the later part of the draft. Four of Ash's seven first-rounders turned into All-Stars, and only Hill has done that among Ricciardi's picks (and even then, he's only had one good season). I'm not sure if I'd call Ash's success a fluke; I'd suggest it was the result of good scouting and smart draft choices.

I don't remember us dumping all our veterans in 1998; I only remember we managed to get the Padres to pick up Randy "Heart Attack" Myers off waivers (thus escaping his brutal contract) because they didn't want the Braves to get him instead. Then we went on a 10-game winning streak that got us back in the hunt... but Green, Stewart and Delgado were already raking that year.

Green became a regular player in 1995, and 1998 was one of his best seasons, as he joined the 35 HR/35 SB club and established himself as an elite outfielder. Delgado became a regular in 1996, and had 38 HRs and 115 RBIs in 1998. Shannon Stewart took over left field in 1997, and broke out in 1998 with Green, Delgado and Canseco hitting behind him. So, I think you're misremembering the circumstances that brought the Jays into contention... not to mention the fact that we had to trade Green a year later primarily because Interbrew wouldn't increase our payroll, and Ash knew he couldn't keep both Green and Delgado. Imagine what our team could have done if we had the payroll flexibility to keep them both? Perhaps Clemens wouldn't have demanded a trade, and we'd have had a real chance at success.

As for Ricciardi, he was a only a scout before taking over as the Jays GM, whereas Ash had learned under Gillick as his Assistant GM for years... so I'm not sure who had more pretense to the GM job. As for injured pitchers, have the Jays ever made a worse signing than BJ Ryan (whose wild delivery was obviously injury-prone) for 5 years, $45 million?!? He gave us, what - 1 1/2 good seasons? Hell, we even paid him $12 million this year not to pitch for us... as bad pitching contracts go, that's right up there with Mike Hampton and Carl Pavano.

Again, we can argue about this all day... but either way, they both sucked in my opinion, and hopefully, A.A. will do a better job of getting us back to the Promised Land.

 

[Rockslinger]

Hey guys and girl, how is Alex Rios faring in Chicago? Has Manny joined him as a teammate?

 

[Mervyn]

I'd argue that Halladay is the best player the Jays have ever drafted,

The only way to argue that would be a pitcher vs. Position player argument.

 

[gcostanza]

The only way to argue that would be a pitcher vs. Position player argument.

You could argue Dave Steib over Halladay. Position player ? Vernon Wells, maybe ?

 

[Mervyn]

Hey guys and girl, how is Alex Rios faring in Chicago? Has Manny joined him as a teammate?

Alex is not doing too badly based on the numbers BA .286 OBP .337 SLG .462 OPS .799 21 HR 33 SB 86 RBI ,

Manny is with CHI , but has only 1 HR/1 RBI In 50 plus at bats.

 

[TGirl Nikki]

You could argue Dave Steib over Halladay. Position player ? Vernon Wells, maybe ?

Steib was not a HOF-caliber player, nor did he ever win any Cy Young awards (though he got totally screwed in 1982, when the sportwriters somehow gave the award to Pete fuckin' Vuckovich). He was dominant for a number of years, but arm injuries cut his career short.

Halladay, on the other hand, seems destined for the Hall; AL Cy Young Award in 2003, and the front-runner for this year's NL CYA; three 20-win seasons (just got his 20th tonight); seven All-Star appearances (with more to come) and a Perfect Game on his resume. Another four or five dominant years, combined with a World Series ring or two, should be enough to get him over the hump.

In fact, I'll go out on a limb, and predict that he might even join the 300-win club. His current career record is 168-86 (versus Steib's 176-137, albiet for some pretty bad teams) and if he wins two more starts, he'll finish the year at 170 wins. If he pitches for seven more years and wins an average of 19 games per season, that'll give him a total of 303 career wins.

He's 33 now, so he'd have to pitch at this level until he's 40 or 41. But considering his ridiculous off-season training program, his history of durability, and lack of serious arm troubles, it's certainly possible. Playing for the Phillies won't hurt his chances, either.

Are 300 wins for Halladay a sure thing? Not at all. But is it within reach? Definitely.

 

[TGirl Nikki]

Another question - have we ever drafted a player who's made it to the HOF? Obviously his best years would have been for someone else, and he wouldn't have gone in wearing a Jays cap (hopefully MLB makes Alomar the first one, when they induct him next year - it's a travesty he wasn't a first-ballot Hall of Famer) but was there anyone who ever played in our farm system who later made it to the Hall?

Jeff Kent's numbers are a bit better than Ryne Sandberg's, so he might make it (we traded him for David Cone in 1992) but is there anyone else who's even close?

 

[Rockslinger]

Are 300 wins for Halladay a sure thing? Not at all. But is it within reach? Definitely.

Only 24 players have ever won 300 games.