Blue Jays 2010

[Kilgore Trout]

and if he wins two more starts, he'll finish the year at 170 wins.

There's a good chance Halladay will only start one more regular season game, on Sept 27 against Washington.
They have a 5 game lead over Atlanta with 10 games left; so, to get 2 more starts he'd have to pitch in either the last or second last game of season and the Phils will be really pissed if it comes down to that because they'll want to rest him up to start the playoffs.

http://philadelphia.phillies.mlb.com/schedule/index.jsp?c_id=phi&m=9&y=2010

If Halladay had played his whole career with Philly he'd probably be parked at about 190 wins by now.
Playing all those years in tough AL East for a weak hitting team probably costed him 2 or 3 wins a year.

 

[mexican]

The Stieb vs Halladay debate reminds me of how bad that early team was. I think that Stieb likely would have had 20-25 more wins with better defence and a better bullpen. I mean he had Joey McLaughlin as a closer!! The thing about Stieb was that he was such a competitor (not that Halladay is not) - ferocious. I admired that.

It also remind me of Carlton Fisk. I remember he signed with Chicago is 1981. I always wondered if he had signed with Toronto (the Jays were really going after him at the time) would the Blue Jays have got to the World Series sooner? Would they have beaten KC?

With respect to HOF - it seems Toronto has produced some great first basemen - Delgado, McGriff and Cecil Fielder. Maybe Delgado and McGriff have a shot - but no rings so who knows.

 

[TGirl Nikki]

There's a good chance Halladay will only start one more regular season game, on Sept 27 against Washington.
They have a 5 game lead over Atlanta with 10 games left; so, to get 2 more starts he'd have to pitch in the closing 3 game series against Atlanta in Atlanta on last weekend of the season and the Phils will be really pissed if it comes down to that because they'll want to rest him up to start the playoffs.

http://philadelphia.phillies.mlb.com/schedule/index.jsp?c_id=phi&m=9&y=2010

You might be right about that... but then again, they might not want him too rested before the playoffs. Guys like Halladay prefer to stick to a routine, pitching every fifth day, and sometimes extra rest leads to extra rust. I think it depends on whether they have an extra off-day before the NLDS starts, and whether Halladay or Oswalt pitches in Game 1. I suspect it'll be Halladay, but I think both the Braves and the NLDS schedule will play a role in determining who pitches when. After all, even if the Phils have clinched the NL East before the weekend series with Atlanta, the Braves will still be fighting for the Wild Card, and convention dictates the Phils should put their best lineup on the field for those games, even if they're already playoff-bound.

We'll see how it plays out, but if Halladay finishes his career with 299 wins because he missed a start at the end of 2010, then he'll have a legitimate reason to complain.

Edit: Halladay is projected for two more starts this season: http://philadelphia.phillies.mlb.co...tebook_id=14917836&vkey=notebook_phi&c_id=phi

The Stieb vs Halladay debate reminds me of how bad that early team was. I think that Stieb likely would have had 20-25 more wins with better defence and a better bullpen. I mean he had Joey McLaughlin as a closer!! The thing about Stieb was that he was such a competitor (not that Halladay is not) - ferocious. I admired that.

It also remind me of Carlton Fisk. I remember he signed with Chicago is 1981. I always wondered if he had signed with Toronto (the Jays were really going after him at the time) would the Blue Jays have got to the World Series sooner? Would they have beaten KC?

With respect to HOF - it seems Toronto has produced some great first basemen - Delgado, McGriff and Cecil Fielder. Maybe Delgado and McGriff have a shot - but no rings so who knows.

Yeah, Steib played for some bad teams, but as KT pointed out, Halladay did too. They're both fierce competitors and I loved their no-nonsense, get-the-job-done approach on the mound; the main difference at this point seems to be Halladay's potential for a longer career, but who knows - like everyone else who ever steps on the mound, Halladay is only one bad pitch away from a career-ending injury (knock on wood!).

Hmm, I wonder about the Crime Dog... he got 21.5% of the vote in 2010, his first eligible year, so he's a long way away from the 75% he'll need to get in, but I guess it's possible - Jim Rice only got 29.8% of the votes during his first year of eligibility, but finally squeezed his way in on his 15th and final year on the ballot. Maybe the same factor (disdain for PED-driven stats) will also give McGriff the boost he'll need, by making his 493 HRs look better by comparison. Too bad he couldn't squeeze 7 more dingers out of his bat; baseball writers seem to have a taste for nice, round numbers.

Delgado's career looks to be over, so he'll finish at 473 HRs, which seems a bit short of the HOF threshold. Cecil Fielder's only year on the ballot was 2004, and he only received a single vote.

Only 24 players have ever won 300 games.

True, but only 20 players have ever pitched a Perfect Game (21 if you include Armando Galarraga) and of those who have, only Randy Johnson and Cy Young also had 300 wins... perhaps Halladay will be the third pitcher to do both? That's pretty much a rubber-stamp for Cooperstown. I'm not saying it'll be easy, but even if an average of 19 wins for another 7 seasons seems like a stretch, an average of 16-17 wins over 8 seasons would get the job done, too. Or maybe he'll end up like Tom Glavine - pitching a few years too many, just to cross the 300-win threshold.

I hope we're having this conversation seven or eight years from now, I love Roy and I'd really like to see him go down as one of the best pitchers of all time... and a Perfect Game combined with 300 wins is pretty exclusive territory.

 

[mexican]

Great comments. I should have clarified though. I think Stieb played for much worse teams than Halladay. The first four years of Stieb's career - the Jays were 53-109, 67-95, 37-69 (strike shortened season), 78-84. The first four years for Halladay - 88-79, 84-78, 83-79, 80-82. No comparison. Halladay had more mentors on the team like Roger Clemens (I know, but he had great discipline and mechanics), Stieb really did not have a mentor. I am not saying Stieb was better than Halladay but I think that he was better than his record and ERA indicate.

 

[Ironhead]

Nikki. WOW ! I have been reading everything you wrote. You seem not only to be a big Blue Jay fan, but you know what you are talking about.
Do you follow any other sport as closely ? Please say hockey and NFL football.

Will you marry me ?


Seriously, the man who is lucky enough to marry you(if you ever make that mistake ... lol) will be one happy son of bitch. A woman that loves sports, is beautiful and you get to make love with her.
I think ... that is heaven.

 

[Rockslinger]

I hope we're having this conversation seven or eight years from now, I love Roy and I'd really like to see him go down as one of the best pitchers of all time... and a Perfect Game combined with 300 wins is pretty exclusive territory.

When it comes to HOF voting, Halladay will be measured against his peers and not some artificial benchmark like 300 wins. Back in the good old days pitchers use to win 30 to 40 games a year. Now 20 wins a year is a rarity.

 

[TGirl Nikki]

Great comments. I should have clarified though. I think Stieb played for much worse teams than Halladay. The first four years of Stieb's career - the Jays were 53-109, 67-95, 37-69 (strike shortened season), 78-84. The first four years for Halladay - 88-79, 84-78, 83-79, 80-82. No comparison. Halladay had more mentors on the team like Roger Clemens (I know, but he had great discipline and mechanics), Stieb really did not have a mentor. I am not saying Stieb was better than Halladay but I think that he was better than his record and ERA indicate.

Whoa, I never realized the Jays were that bad during Steib's career as a Jay... I know he lost the 1982 Cy Young Award because he "only" had 17 wins (vs. Vuckovich's 18) but I didn't realize he had such a weak team behind him.

Just to clarify, though - Halladay didn't become a legit pitcher until 2002. After starting the 2000 season with a 10.64 ERA, he spent the rest of the year and the first half of 2001 in the minors, re-learning how to pitch. He only made two starts in 1998 (which was also Clemens' last year as a Jay), the second being his near-no-no on the 2nd-last day of the season.

I was at that game, too - I didn't know who Halladay was at the time, but I clearly remember one of my friends making the world's dumbest comment in the seventh inning. He said, "Hey, look, he's throwing a no-hitter!" and my other friends and I shot daggers at him with our eyes... in the ninth inning, with two outs and the no-hitter intact, Bobby Higginson hit a low-and-away fastball over the fence... I swear, my idiot friend was lucky to escape with his life!

Thanks for the info about Steib's teams though, I never knew just how crappy the Jays were in the early 80s, and it certainly makes his performance seem even more impressive.

 

[TGirl Nikki]

When it comes to HOF voting, Halladay will be measured against his peers and not some artificial benchmark like 300 wins. Back in the good old days pitchers use to win 30 to 40 games a year. Now 20 wins a year is a rarity.

True, but 300 wins is a golden ticket to Cooperstown... everyone who's won 300 is in the HOF, except the players who aren't yet eligible - Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine are first-ballot shoe-ins, and if Roger Clemens doesn't get in, well, it won't be because he didn't win enough games...

 

[Rockslinger]

The Bautista watch continues. This is a once in a lifetime opportunity. Hope he hits number 50 soon. Even the great Hank Aaron never hit 50 in a season.

 

[Rockslinger]

I didn't know who Halladay was at the time, but I clearly remember one of my friends making the world's dumbest comment in the seventh inning. He said, "Hey, look, he's throwing a no-hitter!" .

Baseball is so rich in traditions. The "7th inning stretch". Never stepping on the white chalk lines. Every ballpark is built so the sun shines on the pitcher's left arm (hence "southpaw"). No video replays. Never fixing a mistake after the fact and denying a pitcher his no hitter.

 

[TGirl Nikki]

Nikki. WOW ! I have been reading everything you wrote. You seem not only to be a big Blue Jay fan, but you know what you are talking about.
Do you follow any other sport as closely ? Please say hockey and NFL football.

Will you marry me ?

Seriously, the man who is lucky enough to marry you(if you ever make that mistake ... lol) will be one happy son of bitch. A woman that loves sports, is beautiful and you get to make love with her.
I think ... that is heaven.

Aww, thank you - that's very sweet, and I'm glad you like reading my posts too. Truth to be told, I was hesitant to post anything in the sports section at first, because I didn't know how my posts would be received, but I've loved baseball my whole life, and there are quite a few people here who really know the game inside-out. I've lost contact with most of my friends from my baseball days, and I was feeling a real void in my life without anyone to talk 'ball with... so I'm glad to be a part of the conversation.

I still enjoy surprising people with my knowledge of the game... I was at a club with a couple of girlfriends last summer, and while we were dancing, I saw a guy wearing an old-school, powder-blue Jays jersey (my personal favourite). So I said, "Hey man, nice shirt! Were you at the game tonight?" He says, "Yeah, I wanted to see Halladay pitch while I still can... do you know who he is?" I laughed, and said, "Yeah, I know how you feel... but if we trade him now, we get two or three solid prospects who might help us compete in 2011 or 2012. If we keep him, he walks as a free agent next year, and we get a couple of draft picks who may or may not help us in 2013 or 2014. Better we trade him now and get maximum value for him."

As the guy starts picking his jaw up off the floor, he looks up and down at this cute blonde with nice boobs, smiling in front of him, and he says, "Where in the fuck did you come from?!?

FYI, I don't watch hockey or football during the regular season (too busy with school) but I loooooooooove the intensity of the playoffs. I was in Vancouver back in May when they were playing Chicago, and one of my favourite clients got us tickets for Game 3. We were only 11 rows from the ice, and you could just feel the electricity in the air! Too bad the Canucks' defense played like shit, and let Byfuglien and Hossa walk all over Luongo (who didn't play too well himself). Still, it was nice to enjoy a playoff atmosphere, and who the hell knows the next time we'll be able to feel that in Toronto?

I also think hockey players are the hottest athletes... the best sex of my life was with a guy who played with Dave Bolland on the Toronto Red Wings. I don't have much time for the "arms-and-pecs-and-nothing-else" wannabes who prance and preen around the gym, but if you give me a hockey player with amazing stamina and a solid core, I'll never let him out of my bedroom!

Hmmm, maybe I'll join the TERB hockey pool this year, I haven't played fantasy sports in a while and I kinda miss it... I'll call myself "Puck Bunny Nikki!"

 

[The Oracle]

In fact, I'll go out on a limb, and predict that he might even join the 300-win club. His current career record is 168-86 (versus Steib's 176-137, albiet for some pretty bad teams) and if he wins two more starts, he'll finish the year at 170 wins. If he pitches for seven more years and wins an average of 19 games per season, that'll give him a total of 303 career wins.

He's 33 now, so he'd have to pitch at this level until he's 40 or 41. But considering his ridiculous off-season training program, his history of durability, and lack of serious arm troubles, it's certainly possible. Playing for the Phillies won't hurt his chances, either.

Are 300 wins for Halladay a sure thing? Not at all. But is it within reach? Definitely.

That's a pretty long limb you are out on there Nikki.

I don't see him putting up those type of numbers for 7 or 8 more years.

I see him having 3 or 4 more stellar years and 2 or3 mediocre years.

He'll most likely end up with 260-275 wins for his career which is still farking excellant in my books.

He pitches just too many innings year after year to keep up this pace to his 40th year.

 

[Ironhead]

I also think hockey players are the hottest athletes... the best sex of my life was with a guy who played with Dave Bolland on the Toronto Red Wings. I don't have much time for the "arms-and-pecs-and-nothing-else" wannabes who prance and preen around the gym, but if you give me a hockey player with amazing stamina and a solid core, I'll never let him out of my bedroom!

My wife's son played against Bolland through out their MTHL careers.

 

[TGirl Nikki]

That's a pretty long limb you are out on there Nikki.

I don't see him putting up those type of numbers for 7 or 8 more years.

I see him having 3 or 4 more stellar years and 2 or3 mediocre years.

He'll most likely end up with 260-275 wins for his career which is still farking excellant in my books.

He pitches just too many innings year after year to keep up this pace to his 40th year.

With anyone else, I'd be inclined to agree, but Halladay is just so efficient on the mound that his high innings totals aren't as taxing as they'd appear to be. He only averages 14.4 pitches per inning (lowest among NL starters), he's got a great team behind him, he keeps himself in amazing shape during the offseason, and he's never had any serious arm troubles to speak of.

Let's say he finishes the year at 169 wins. He'd need:

2 seasons of 20 wins (40)
2 seasons of 18 wins (36)
2 seasons of 16 wins (32)
1 season of 13 wins (13)
1 season of 10 wins (10)

Total: 169 + 131 = 300 career wins

Even with a drop-off in wins near the end of his career, he could still get over the hump, and if he's around 285-290 wins at 40 years old and hasn't had any major injuries, he might stretch his career out an extra year to reach that milestone. Heck, maybe he'd even come back and play his last couple of seasons with the Jays, like Tom Glavine did with the Braves?

Nothing's a sure thing of course, but if anyone can do it, I'd put my money on ultra-efficient Roy Halladay.

 

[The Oracle]

With anyone else, I'd be inclined to agree, but Halladay is just so efficient on the mound that his high innings totals aren't as taxing as they'd appear to be. He only averages 14.4 pitches per inning (lowest among NL starters), he's got a great team behind him, he keeps himself in amazing shape during the offseason, and he's never had any serious arm troubles to speak of.

I'm going to assume that you are in your early 20's.

Take it from someone who is more than double your age, when you start getting around your middle thirties your body starts reacting differently to physical stress.

Without the help of PED's a decline is inevitable and the funny thing is that your mind still thinks you can do it.

At some point in time he is going to have arm problems and that will derail the Doc machine.

You are right about Philly though being the right team for him to be with. They are ranked third in the league in hitting as of now and their pitching as of late is unparalleled in the National League.

On a personal note I hope Roy gets his 300+ and into the HOF. I'll never forget the full page add he took out in the paper thanking the fans for their support when he left.

All class.

 

[Rockslinger]

when you start getting around your middle thirties your body starts reacting differently to physical stress.

Also, the difference between a Halladay and say the 15th best pitcher can be measured in millimetres and nanoseconds. Take Guy Lafleur as a case study. His decline started when his slapshot was a nanosecond slower so instead of going in the net it was being stopped by the goalies.

 

[The Oracle]

Also, the difference between a Halladay and say the 15th best pitcher can be measured in millimetres and nanoseconds. Take Guy Lafleur as a case study. His decline started when his slapshot was a nanosecond slower so instead of going in the net it was being stopped by the goalies.

To back up your comment on Lafleur.

I remember listening to a habs radio broadcast when Bobby hull came back into the NHL from the WHA at the end of his storied career.

Dick Irvin was saying that the first thing that goes when a player starts to decline is his shot and that night he was referencing Hull.

 

[TGirl Nikki]

I'm going to assume that you are in your early 20's.

Aww, that's sweet - thank you for saying so! (You're half right, I'm still in my 20s but not so early anymore...)

I'm not disputing that the average pitcher starts to break down around his mid-30s. Usually he'll lose a few mph off his fastball, won't pitch quite as deep into games, start developing arm troubles, etc. But there are some notable exceptions to this rule, including several, recently-retired pitchers from the last 20 years. Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, Curt Schilling, etc (and that's not even including Randy Johnson and Roger Clemens, whom I've excluded due to PED suspicions).

These guys had a few things in common - ruthless efficiency on the mound, pinpoint control, very few walks, and... wait for it... an extremely low numbers of pitches per inning and pitches per plate appearance. Even after they lost the extra zip on their fastball, their guile and experience almost made up for it, and they still pitched at a high level into their late 30s and early 40s.

Look at their career numbers for these stats, and you'll see they're quite close to Halladay's. There's no secret sauce for longevity, but minimizing your pitches per inning seems to correlate with a long career, and playing for good teams seems to get you a lot of wins. Roy is a big, tough guy, with a great conditioning program. It's not a guarantee of course, but if anyone can do it, it would be him.

I'll even put my money where my mouth is - if someone gives me 2:1 odds, I'll bet $100 that Roy wins 300 in his career. Of course, I'd also need a way to track you down in 8 or 9 years to collect...

On a personal note I hope Roy gets his 300+ and into the HOF. I'll never forget the full page add he took out in the paper thanking the fans for their support when he left.

All class.

Totally agree, 100% - and the Phils are coming back to Toronto in 2011! :-D They're here from July 1-3, hopefully Roy will be slated to pitch one of those games. Kudos to MLB for agreeing to the Jays' request to bring them back here, and giving us another series with them after the G20 fucked us over last year.

I hope I don't end up eating my words, though - they're a tough team, and if we're in contention at the start of July but get smacked around during interleague play (which seems to happen to us every year) then it might be more of a curse than a blessing...

 

[Ironhead]

What a game today. So fitting that Bautista hits his fiftieth at home and it turns out to be the winner in a 1-0 Jays win. His parents were here to see it in person.
Also Seattle's Suzuki gets base hit #200 for the season, for the tenth season in a row. First and only player to date to achieve that feat.
Both players got an ovation from the Skydome crowd.

 

[gcostanza]

No video replays.

In Major League Baseball, a system similar to that in the National Hockey League for the last month of the 2008 season and beyond was implemented on August 28, 2008. The system allows instant replay to be used to review boundary home run calls to determine:

fair (home run) or foul
whether the ball actually left the playing field
whether the ball was subject to spectator interference

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instant_replay_in_baseball