Are canadian bank stock safe from Humpty Trumpty?
- Thread starter Zoot Allures
- Start date
You are the one who resembles Trump, constantly spreading misinformation and expecting others to accept your claims as truth without providing any evidence. My opinion is entirely valid and rooted in common sense.
We are discussing a specific significant event in which Trump may impose a range of tariffs on multiple nations. Such a move could trigger uncertainty and instability in the global economy, potentially leading to market disruptions and investor panic. Given these circumstances, I believe it is wise to keep your savings in liquid assets at this time to maintain flexibility in response to any sudden economic shifts.
Exercising patience by waiting a month or two after the implementation of these tariffs before making major financial decisions is a prudent strategy. This approach allows time to assess the actual impact of the tariffs on global markets, reducing the risk of making premature or reactionary investment moves.
Investing in Berkshire Hathaway (BRK) is a far superior choice compared to buying a single blue-chip stock. With built-in diversification, BRK protects investors from the risks of relying on a single company, as it owns a vast portfolio spanning insurance, railroads, utilities, consumer goods, and financials. Unlike a single stock that is at the mercy of one management team, BRK is led by Warren Buffett and his world-class capital allocators, ensuring smart investment decisions and long-term stability.
BRK’s stable cash flow from multiple sources shields investors from volatility, while its strategy of reinvesting profits rather than paying taxable dividends maximizes long-term compounding. A single blue-chip stock, no matter how strong, is vulnerable to company-specific risks like lawsuits, poor leadership, or declining market share. Meanwhile, BRK retains the flexibility to invest in the best opportunities, adapt to changing economic conditions, and repurchase shares to drive shareholder value.
If you are seeking long-term growth, reduced risk, and expert financial management, BRK is the clear winner. Betting on a single stock is a gamble, owning Berkshire is a strategy for lasting success.
Investors should dismiss the notion that Berkshire Hathaway can ever be "too high" in price. Unlike a single stock that may become overvalued due to speculation or unsustainable growth, BRK's value is backed by a diversified portfolio of strong businesses and strategic investments, carefully managed by experienced experts with a proven track record. With its ability to adapt, allocate capital wisely, and continuously grow intrinsic value, BRK remains a sound investment at any price.
How have I speculated, these are the facts :
- Biden revoked the Keystone XL pipeline permit on his first day in office (January 20, 2021), effectively stopping the project.
- Trump was a strong advocate for U.S. oil and gas production, promoting policies that expanded drilling and pipeline infrastructure.
- Canada has been developing new pipeline infrastructure, notably the Trans Mountain Expansion Project (TMX), which increases capacity to the Pacific Coast for exports to Asia. However, direct exports to Europe are more challenging due to a lack of pipeline connections leading to the East Coast.
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You are market timing. Cannot be done. You will miss the upticks as you get back in too late
Warren Buffet. I take my advice from him, that is my evidence. While he may be wrong, it is the best advice I can think of
and he very firmly says the average stock holder should buy and hold index fund in S&P not BRK, which he owns as you know.
BRK is really an index fund of buffet shosen stocks which buys and holds.
Compare BRK graph to the S&P. Let me know what you see. He knows all the stock "geniuses" and he says he can count the ones who can consistently beat the market on one hand
I am confused if the graphs account for taxes BRK pays and who is actually ahead but here is Buffet
Tell me what you think. He seems to say BRK is better in a downturn but not in upturn, do you agree? His talk about taxes paid by BRK and a S&P index fund and how it influences profit I am unsure of so explain it to me
Google warren buffet, charlie munger, jack boogle or ben felix on market timing then we can talk without insulting each other,
if you can prove me wrong I will salute you .
I am not an expert, and I believe you are smart enough to say the same about yourself.
Duck Donald is a meglomaniac who thinks he is the smartest guy in the biggest room.
Trump is an outlier, I never expected someone like him to be in power, so I am nervous and I want to sleep at night.
Getting out of the market may prove wise but, if it works I got lucky.
No way did I outsmart everybody
Warren Buffet’s BRK-B Vs S&P 500 Analysis - Alpha Rho Technologies
Historical analysis suggests that a rational investor should not choose between the S&P 500 and Berkshire Hathaway, but instead consider holding both in their portfolio. However, historical performance does not guarantee future outcomes. Investors must assess whether the fundamentals that have driven the success of these assets in the past are likely to persist going forward.
We believe that BRK-B carries a premium due to Warren Buffett’s unparalleled reputation and investment acumen. However, at 93 years old, Buffett’s eventual succession poses a significant uncertainty. It is unlikely that his successors will match his extraordinary track record, which could impact the company’s performance and investor sentiment over the long term.
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Franco Nevada is kind of like a gold ETF(lower risk royalty play also). I have been holding it for many years. Unfortunately, I did not buy enough of it and probably would not buy more with gold at these levels.
I say it can be done and it is done by people in the know all the time.
Market timing can be defined as the strategy of selecting stocks, buying them at an opportune moment, and selling them for a profit. The stock’s movement after the sale is irrelevant—the primary goal is to generate consistent profits. Success in market timing comes from making more profitable trades than losing ones, ultimately ensuring overall gains rather than losses.
Now, consider a scenario where you achieve a 2.5% return per week and compound those gains over a year. If sustained, this rate of return would result in tripling your initial investment within 12 months. The question is: Is this realistically achievable?
Correct
Market timing is impossible because the majority of large market swings happen in less than a day and just as you jump
in or out the market goes the other way.
If it was so easy everyone would do it
Ceiling Cat has convinced himself he can outsmart the market with his logic and beat
all the pros that run the pensions funds and the insurance companies and the mutual funds
Logic does not control the market like CC believes, emotion and herd mentality rules the market
If it was that easy then everyone would be doing it and if everyone
was doing it then it could no longer be done as all stocks would be priced
at their correct value and market efficiency would be achieved and the market
would no longer have wild dips because wild dips are caused by human irrationality and
bad cognitive investing
You like Buffet ? then listen man
Buy and hold. Buy what ? An index fund. Which index? That depends on your ability not to panic
IE human irrationality -- and sell low and if you will need monies in downturn or not so have
safe money you can use in a downturn and not panic
No one triples their investment every 12 months consistently
No one
Not Buffet
No one
Not Gorden Geko
No one
Not hedge funds
No one
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I question that 4% of day traders make a good living over an extended peroid of time
More like < 1%
Regardless of the percentage, the truth is there are so many day traders that some
will make a living because of mere chance not because they beat the system
An excellent example is fund companies.
They will have dozens of funds and the one that has beat the market over 10 years is their starship fund
Total bull! If I create dozens of funds one will beat the index by mere chance while 99% of my funds do not.
Ceiling Cat, if professionals in those fund companies with everything at their disposal including
billions of dollars cannot beat the market why do you think you can ? You are naive
What is more likely :
1 Some traders beat the market consistently because they have figured out the secret
that many thousands of other very, very bright and educated traders have not
in spite of their use of computer simulations and progams they wrote at
Harvard business school?
2 There are so many tens of thousands of traders out there that some will
consistently win by mere chance?
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To gain in the market you need to invest long term. Works great till you don't have long term. I'm at that any day now. Long term means "love you long time" to me
The statement makes a bold claim, that a select few traders have discovered a “secret” enabling them to consistently beat the market while many very capable, well-educated traders (even those using advanced computer simulations and programs from prestigious institutions) have not. Here are several points to consider when examining this assertion:
The idea of a single “secret” that distinguishes successful traders from others is oversimplified. In reality, markets are complex systems influenced by countless variables. What may appear as a secret might just be a unique combination of skills, insights, or risk management practices rather than a single, hidden formula.
Consistently successful traders often possess a combination of deep market understanding, discipline, and the ability to adapt to changing conditions. Rather than relying on a secret trick, they might excel through rigorous research, a sound trading strategy, and the continual refinement of their methods.
Many traders use sophisticated computer models and simulations, but these tools are only as good as the assumptions and data they incorporate. Markets are inherently unpredictable, and even the most advanced models may fail to capture sudden shifts or behavioral nuances. The statement suggests that while many use such technology, it isn’t enough on its own to secure a consistent edge.
While your statement taps into the notion of uncovering a hidden method that guarantees market success, the reality is much more simple. The edge that some traders appear to have is likely a product of a combination of rigorous analysis, disciplined execution, adaptive strategies, and perhaps a dose of luck. There is no single, universally applicable “secret” that can be distilled into a simple formula, especially in an environment as competitive and dynamic as financial markets.
Rather than looking for an elusive secret, you might benefit more from focusing on building a strategy, continuous learning, and disciplined risk management practices.
Banks, financial institutions, and experienced traders have uncovered the key to profiting in the stock market. Success isn’t just about knowing when to buy and sell, it is also about understanding market demand. A skilled trader recognizes when demand is low, ensuring ample stock availability for purchase, and when demand is high, creating the opportunity to sell at a profit. The so-called "secret" to success likely has many variations, as there is no single formula that can be learned from a book or an internet search. If making a profit were as simple as buying and holding any stock, then you could simply throw a dart at a stock list and wait.
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You are articulate which demonstrates your intelligence but you are naive with your simplistic beliefs
I did not imply there is a secret I implied there is no secret
Assuming you are right, which I do not for reasons stated that I will not repeat, consider what you just said.
You believe you have the skill set, the brains, the acumen and the time to be one of the
chosen few that beat the market?
'
Throwing a dart is just as effective as professional stock pickers.
Once again, you cannot beat the market but you can match it with indexing but too many people sell when markets go down and buy when they go up when you should buy and hold
You know just enough to think you are smart but not enough to know you are wrong
here you go
You're Really Not That Smart: The Dunning-Kruger Effect | Psychology Today
Back to the r OP. What index to invest in with Trump in power
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Some traders beat the market consistently because they have figured out the secret
that many thousands of other very, very bright and educated traders have not
in spite of their use of computer simulations and progams they wrote at
Harvard business school?
I like your humour but I most certainly did not state there is secret to investing, I implied that you implied there was a secret
But now that I think of it there is a secret and here it is
Stock pickers say they can beat the market the secret is they cannot the proof is why
would they need my money when they should be rich?
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The stock market operates as a zero-sum game, every dollar gained corresponds to a dollar lost. There was a U-man who used to post his stock picks on TERB, attempting to prove his skill as an investor. After two years, he claimed his portfolio was up 20%, but based on his own posts, he had actually incurred a 20% loss. Every time he lost money, someone else profited.
One particular occasion stood out: he bought BTE and quickly lost 10%, panicking and selling at a loss. His post caught my attention, prompting me to analyze the stock. I realized it was undervalued and bought the stock, and within a few days, it rebounded by over 15%.
Investing in a company like Canadian Tire (CTC) just because it's a large, well-established business with stores across every province won’t necessarily yield the best returns. Large companies often move sluggishly in the market. Making a profit in stocks isn’t as straightforward as many believe.
The real "secret" is not just understanding the market but also recognizing broader economic and political conditions. For example, during times like the period leading up to Trump’s tariffs, external factors can significantly impact stock performance.
One particular occasion stood out: he bought BTE and quickly lost 10%, panicking and selling at a loss. His post caught my attention, prompting me to analyze the stock. I realized it was undervalued and bought the stock, and within a few days, it rebounded by over 15%.
Investing in a company like Canadian Tire (CTC) just because it's a large, well-established business with stores across every province won’t necessarily yield the best returns. Large companies often move sluggishly in the market. Making a profit in stocks isn’t as straightforward as many believe.
The real "secret" is not just understanding the market but also recognizing broader economic and political conditions. For example, during times like the period leading up to Trump’s tariffs, external factors can significantly impact stock performance.
Although not impossible, it is very difficult to beat the index. Did you know that only 4% of publicly traded U.S. stocks have accounted for virtually all of the U.S. stock market's excess returns over treasury bills since 1926?
I would not mind holding for 30 years if I was younger. But I noticed the return since the 2001 inception is only 6.09%. In those early years after the tech crash, Canadian stocks were actually better with commodity prices doing well. I had XSP for a time way back. One year I noticed the currency tracking to be way off. Looks like it is better these days.
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Yeah. I use a discount broker also. Of course, we have the dividend tax credit for non registered accounts. Also,even though I have known for years that U.S. dividend stocks are best kept in the RRSP, I never bothered to open a U.S dollar RRSP account. I really should open one up.
