Are canadian bank stock safe from Humpty Trumpty?

[Zoot Allures]

I say it can be done and it is done by people in the know all the time.




Market timing can be defined as the strategy of selecting stocks, buying them at an opportune moment, and selling them for a profit. The stock’s movement after the sale is irrelevant—the primary goal is to generate consistent profits. Success in market timing comes from making more profitable trades than losing ones, ultimately ensuring overall gains rather than losses.
Now, consider a scenario where you achieve a 2.5% return per week and compound those gains over a year. If sustained, this rate of return would result in tripling your initial investment within 12 months. The question is: Is this realistically achievable?

If it was that easy then everyone would be doing it and if everyone
was doing it then it could no longer be done as all stocks would be priced
at their correct value and market efficiency would be achieved and the market
would no longer have wild dips because wild dips are caused by human irrationality and
bad cognitive investing


You like Buffet ? then listen man

Buy and hold. Buy what ? An index fund. Which index? That depends on your ability not to panic
IE human irrationality -- and sell low and if you will need monies in downturn or not so have
safe money you can use in a downturn and not panic

No one triples their investment every 12 months consistently

No one

Not Buffet

No one

Not Gorden Geko

No one

Not hedge funds

No one

 

[Ceiling Cat]

The success rate for making a living by day trading is 4%!!

4% over what period of time?

 

[mitchell76]

4% over what period of time?

Who cares?? It's terrible odds!!

 

[Zoot Allures]

4% over what period of time?

I question that 4% of day traders make a good living over an extended peroid of time

More like < 1%

Regardless of the percentage, the truth is there are so many day traders that some
will make a living because of mere chance not because they beat the system

An excellent example is fund companies.

They will have dozens of funds and the one that has beat the market over 10 years is their starship fund
Total bull! If I create dozens of funds one will beat the index by mere chance while 99% of my funds do not.

Ceiling Cat, if professionals in those fund companies with everything at their disposal including
billions of dollars cannot beat the market why do you think you can ? You are naive

What is more likely :

1 Some traders beat the market consistently because they have figured out the secret
that many thousands of other very, very bright and educated traders have not
in spite of their use of computer simulations and progams they wrote at
Harvard business school?

2 There are so many tens of thousands of traders out there that some will
consistently win by mere chance?

 

[rgkv]

To gain in the market you need to invest long term. Works great till you don't have long term. I'm at that any day now. Long term means "love you long time" to me

 

[Ceiling Cat]

Ceiling Cat, if professionals in those fund companies with everything at their disposal including
billions of dollars cannot beat the market why do you think you can ? You are naive

What is more likely :

1 Some traders beat the market consistently because they have figured out the secret
that many thousands of other very, very bright and educated traders have not
in spite of their use of computer simulations and progams they wrote at
Harvard business school?

2 There are so many tens of thousands of traders out there that some will
consistently win by mere chance?

The statement makes a bold claim, that a select few traders have discovered a “secret” enabling them to consistently beat the market while many very capable, well-educated traders (even those using advanced computer simulations and programs from prestigious institutions) have not. Here are several points to consider when examining this assertion:

The idea of a single “secret” that distinguishes successful traders from others is oversimplified. In reality, markets are complex systems influenced by countless variables. What may appear as a secret might just be a unique combination of skills, insights, or risk management practices rather than a single, hidden formula.
Consistently successful traders often possess a combination of deep market understanding, discipline, and the ability to adapt to changing conditions. Rather than relying on a secret trick, they might excel through rigorous research, a sound trading strategy, and the continual refinement of their methods.

Many traders use sophisticated computer models and simulations, but these tools are only as good as the assumptions and data they incorporate. Markets are inherently unpredictable, and even the most advanced models may fail to capture sudden shifts or behavioral nuances. The statement suggests that while many use such technology, it isn’t enough on its own to secure a consistent edge.

While your statement taps into the notion of uncovering a hidden method that guarantees market success, the reality is much more simple. The edge that some traders appear to have is likely a product of a combination of rigorous analysis, disciplined execution, adaptive strategies, and perhaps a dose of luck. There is no single, universally applicable “secret” that can be distilled into a simple formula, especially in an environment as competitive and dynamic as financial markets.

Rather than looking for an elusive secret, you might benefit more from focusing on building a strategy, continuous learning, and disciplined risk management practices.

Banks, financial institutions, and experienced traders have uncovered the key to profiting in the stock market. Success isn’t just about knowing when to buy and sell, it is also about understanding market demand. A skilled trader recognizes when demand is low, ensuring ample stock availability for purchase, and when demand is high, creating the opportunity to sell at a profit. The so-called "secret" to success likely has many variations, as there is no single formula that can be learned from a book or an internet search. If making a profit were as simple as buying and holding any stock, then you could simply throw a dart at a stock list and wait.

 

[Zoot Allures]

The statement makes a bold claim, that a select few traders have discovered a “secret” enabling them to consistently beat the market while many very capable, well-educated traders (even those using advanced computer simulations and programs from prestigious institutions) have not. Here are several points to consider when examining this assertion:

The idea of a single “secret” that distinguishes successful traders from others is oversimplified. In reality, markets are complex systems influenced by countless variables. What may appear as a secret might just be a unique combination of skills, insights, or risk management practices rather than a single, hidden formula.

You are articulate which demonstrates your intelligence but you are naive with your simplistic beliefs

I did not imply there is a secret I implied there is no secret

Consistently successful traders often possess a combination of deep market understanding, discipline, and the ability to adapt to changing conditions. Rather than relying on a secret trick, they might excel through rigorous research, a sound trading strategy, and the continual refinement of their methods.

And they do not beat the market consistently

Many traders use sophisticated computer models and simulations, but these tools are only as good as the assumptions and data they incorporate. Markets are inherently unpredictable, and even the most advanced models may fail to capture sudden shifts or behavioral nuances. The statement suggests that while many use such technology, it isn’t enough on its own to secure a consistent edge.

While your statement taps into the notion of uncovering a hidden method that guarantees market success, the reality is much more simple. The edge that some traders appear to have is likely a product of a combination of rigorous analysis, disciplined execution, adaptive strategies, and perhaps a dose of luck. There is no single, universally applicable “secret” that can be distilled into a simple formula, especially in an environment as competitive and dynamic as financial markets.

Rather than looking for an elusive secret, you might benefit more from focusing on building a strategy, continuous learning, and disciplined risk management practices.

Banks, financial institutions, and experienced traders have uncovered the key to profiting in the stock market. Success isn’t just about knowing when to buy and sell, it is also about understanding market demand. A skilled trader recognizes when demand is low, ensuring ample stock availability for purchase, and when demand is high, creating the opportunity to sell at a profit. The so-called "secret" to success likely has many variations, as there is no single formula that can be learned from a book or an internet search. If making a profit were as simple as buying and holding any stock, then you could simply throw a dart at a stock list and wait.

Assuming you are right, which I do not for reasons stated that I will not repeat, consider what you just said.
You believe you have the skill set, the brains, the acumen and the time to be one of the
chosen few that beat the market?
'
Throwing a dart is just as effective as professional stock pickers.


Once again, you cannot beat the market but you can match it with indexing but too many people sell when markets go down and buy when they go up when you should buy and hold

You know just enough to think you are smart but not enough to know you are wrong

here you go

You're Really Not That Smart: The Dunning-Kruger Effect | Psychology Today





Back to the r OP. What index to invest in with Trump in power

 

[Ceiling Cat]

Some traders beat the market consistently because they have figured out the secret
that many thousands of other very, very bright and educated traders have not
in spite of their use of computer simulations and progams they wrote at
Harvard business school?

 

[Zoot Allures]

I like your humour but I most certainly did not state there is secret to investing, I implied that you implied there was a secret

But now that I think of it there is a secret and here it is

Stock pickers say they can beat the market the secret is they cannot the proof is why
would they need my money when they should be rich?

 

[Ceiling Cat]

The stock market operates as a zero-sum game, every dollar gained corresponds to a dollar lost. There was a U-man who used to post his stock picks on TERB, attempting to prove his skill as an investor. After two years, he claimed his portfolio was up 20%, but based on his own posts, he had actually incurred a 20% loss. Every time he lost money, someone else profited.
One particular occasion stood out: he bought BTE and quickly lost 10%, panicking and selling at a loss. His post caught my attention, prompting me to analyze the stock. I realized it was undervalued and bought the stock, and within a few days, it rebounded by over 15%.
Investing in a company like Canadian Tire (CTC) just because it's a large, well-established business with stores across every province won’t necessarily yield the best returns. Large companies often move sluggishly in the market. Making a profit in stocks isn’t as straightforward as many believe.
The real "secret" is not just understanding the market but also recognizing broader economic and political conditions. For example, during times like the period leading up to Trump’s tariffs, external factors can significantly impact stock performance.

 

[Zoot Allures]

Foolish to say the stock market is a zero sum game.
Stocks rise because of profits meaning everyone profits who buys and holds.
Day trading is a zero sum game

 

[mitchell76]

The stock market operates as a zero-sum game, every dollar gained corresponds to a dollar lost. There was a U-man who used to post his stock picks on TERB, attempting to prove his skill as an investor. After two years, he claimed his portfolio was up 20%, but based on his own posts, he had actually incurred a 20% loss. Every time he lost money, someone else profited.
One particular occasion stood out: he bought BTE and quickly lost 10%, panicking and selling at a loss. His post caught my attention, prompting me to analyze the stock. I realized it was undervalued and bought the stock, and within a few days, it rebounded by over 15%.
Investing in a company like Canadian Tire (CTC) just because it's a large, well-established business with stores across every province won’t necessarily yield the best returns. Large companies often move sluggishly in the market. Making a profit in stocks isn’t as straightforward as many believe.
The real "secret" is not just understanding the market but also recognizing broader economic and political conditions. For example, during times like the period leading up to Trump’s tariffs, external factors can significantly impact stock performance.

Yes, but not every investor wants to make a profit right away. They are income investors. That's why covered call ETFS, have become so popular in the last few years. A lot of investors need the monthly income from their shares, to buy food, pay rent etc

if You're an income investor, then the stock market is not a zero sum game. You are way more focused on the monthly income, then you are on the stock price. Therefore no timing of the market needed. Even if the covered call ETF goes down in price, you still get the monthly income, that prevents you from getting discouraged, and selling at a low price!!

I follow Adriano of Passive income investing on you tube. His videos have helped me immensely. Here's an example of one of his videos on covered call etfs. See examples of covered call ETF's at approx 12 minutes of this video, if you want to skip the beginning preamble as to what a covered call actually is!!

 

[mitchell76]

 

[jeff2]

Although not impossible, it is very difficult to beat the index. Did you know that only 4% of publicly traded U.S. stocks have accounted for virtually all of the U.S. stock market's excess returns over treasury bills since 1926?

 

[mitchell76]

Although not impossible, it is very difficult to beat the index. Did you know that only 4% of publicly traded U.S. stocks have accounted for virtually all of the U.S. stock market's excess returns over treasury bills since 1926?

Yes, but the trick is, if you can hold onto the XSP for example, for 30 years , when it only pays a little over 1% distribution yield?? I know I couldn't!!

https://www.blackrock.com/ca/investors/en/products/239727/ishares-sp-500-index-etf-cadhedged-fund

 

[jeff2]

Yes, but the trick is, if you can hold onto the XSP for example, for 30 years , when it only pays a little over 1% distribution yield?? I know I couldn't!!

https://www.blackrock.com/ca/investors/en/products/239727/ishares-sp-500-index-etf-cadhedged-fund

I would not mind holding for 30 years if I was younger. But I noticed the return since the 2001 inception is only 6.09%. In those early years after the tech crash, Canadian stocks were actually better with commodity prices doing well. I had XSP for a time way back. One year I noticed the currency tracking to be way off. Looks like it is better these days.

 

[mitchell76]

I would not mind holding for 30 years if I was younger. But I noticed the return since the 2001 inception is only 6.09%. In those early years after the tech crash, Canadian stocks were actually better with commody prices doing well. I had XSP for a time way back. One year I noticed the currency tracking to be way off. Looks like it is better these days.

Excellent point. However at my age, I need to hold dividend or covered call ETFS, that pay a monthly yield. That's my own individual strategy. I don't have a financial advisor to hold my hand, and I do my own investing through a discount brokerage account. That way if I make investment mistakes, I have no one to blame but myself.....LMAO

 

[jeff2]

Excellent point. However at my age, I need to hold dividend or covered call ETFS, that pay a monthly yield. That's my own individual strategy. I don't have a financial advisor to hold my hand, and I do my own investing through a discount brokerage account. That way if I make investment mistakes, I have no one to blame but myself.....LMAO

Yeah. I use a discount broker also. Of course, we have the dividend tax credit for non registered accounts. Also,even though I have known for years that U.S. dividend stocks are best kept in the RRSP, I never bothered to open a U.S dollar RRSP account. I really should open one up.

 

[mitchell76]

Yeah. I use a discount broker also. Of course, we have the dividend tax credit for non registered accounts. Also,even though I have known for years that U.S. dividend stocks are best kept in the RRSP, I never bothered to open a U.S dollar account. I really should open one up.

Yes, the CDN dividend tax credit has helped me save a lot of money in income tax. I also don't own any US securities whatsoever. I'm not a licensed financial advisor, and I've never understood converting cdn to US dollars etc I also know that the bank adds their fees to the currency exchange, as well. I'm just comfortable sticking with CDN dividend etfs, and cdn covered call etfs. I sort of use a hybrid approach. I also don't own any bonds whatsoever.

It's kind of liberating being in charge of your own portfolio. It makes me watch the stock market everyday, like a "hawk." The way I look at it, even if I make some investment mistakes (which I certainly have), at least I don't have to pay a financial advisor, any fees etc

 

[jeff2]

Yes, the CDN dividend tax credit has helped me save a lot of money in income tax. I also don't own any US securities whatsoever. I'm not a licensed financial advisor, and I've never understood converting cdn to US dollars etc I also know that the bank adds their fees to the currency exchange, as well. I'm just comfortable sticking with CDN dividend etfs, and cdn covered call etfs. I sort of use a hybrid approach. I also don't own any bonds whatsoever.

It's kind of liberating being in charge of your own portfolio. It makes me watch the stock market everyday, like a "hawk." The way I look at it, even if I make some investment mistakes (which I certainly have), at least I don't have to pay a financial advisor, any fees etc
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Yeah. I wish we had more multi baggers in Canada. I missed out on Constellation Software so I picked up some it's smaller European cousin Topicus when it down at S 67.00. Wish I bought more though.