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[Dutch Oven]

Pardon the interruption, but you are wrong.

1) Trump "the decider" was given multiple briefing from his own intelligence services about the looming pandemic starting in late December, continuing through January and February and decided to ignore and discount these repeated warnings. Somehow I doubt that Trump, The Great Denier of international institutions would rely or any information from the WHO and China.

That's the CNN spin (ignoring their own opposition to Trump taking action in January). The truth is more likely that there are a lot of different voices behind the scenes in government. No doubt that at least someone called for more drastic and early action, and others called for greater restraint. Anyone claiming that the administration unanimously told Trump to ignore WHO and the PRC and take earlier action is lying. Trump correctly anticipated the backlash of the press against PRC travel restrictions, and probably thought his decision might be viewed as moderate by the electorate as a whole.

2) Since when did Trump ever let the Lame Stream Media guide his decisions?

Trump is a lot more savvy than your cadre give him credit for. He has some ability to pick his battles.

3) So far the analytical models put forth by epidemiological modelers have proven to be uncannily correct. Those models point now point to 75,000+ deaths before the arrival of June. Remember those models also predicted 100,000 - 200,000 total deaths with some form of restrictions in place AND 1,000,000 - 2,000,000 deaths if restrictions are removed.

Some of the models are turning out to be accurate, and some are wildly wrong. Somebody correctly bets on the winning horse in every horse race as well! I don't think there are going to many deaths after the end of June, because I think the people who are most vulnerable have already been exposed to the virus.

4) Calling for a whole scale removal of restrictions is morally bankrupt. Calling for removal of restrictions before even a minimum number of testing and contact tracing can be implemented would only guarantee subsequent waves of infections and deaths and a re-lockdown of the economy.

Can I get an "Amen" for Anbarandy - Pastor of the Pooner Board! Where would we be without your moral guidance!

In any event, I'm not calling for the removal of every precaution. I think that LTC centers should continue in quarantine conditions until either a medication or vaccine is developed.

5) You seriously cannot be arguing for restrictions to be removed given the consequences of such decisions.

See above. Not sure why my position wasn't already clear to you, since I've already posted about it.

6) Should seniors be sacrificed at the altar of consumerism and conspicuous consumption? Would you sacrifice your life so that Billy can buy the latest iphone, or Judy can go on spring break, or Madge can attend a concert? Is that worth the sacrifice of your life, or to put in other words, the sacrifice of any life that may have been saved by restricting activities in the short and medium term?

The problem with your question is your implicit assumption that continuing a shut down of the economy would protect vulnerable seniors any more than quarantining them until medicine catches up with the virus. You can't "sacrifice" someone you have no way of saving. But you can save everyone else from the disaster of this meaningless lock down. You "think" these lock down measures are helping seniors. There's absolutely no proof that they are. Vulnerable seniors continue to die despite current measures. They've already been exposed. Most seniors are only mildy affected. Life goes on.

 

[Anbarandy]

That's the CNN spin (ignoring their own opposition to Trump taking action in January). The truth is more likely that there are a lot of different voices behind the scenes in government. No doubt that at least someone called for more drastic and early action, and others called for greater restraint. Anyone claiming that the administration unanimously told Trump to ignore WHO and the PRC and take earlier action is lying. Trump correctly anticipated the backlash of the press against PRC travel restrictions, and probably thought his decision might be viewed as moderate by the electorate as a whole.

Trump is a lot more savvy than your cadre give him credit for. He has some ability to pick his battles.

A lot of different voices behind the scenes in government and as usual he discarded and discounted the sanity for insanity. How do you know Trumps anticipated the backlash of the press? Are mind reading again?

Some of the models are turning out to be accurate, and some are wildly wrong. Somebody correctly bets on the winning horse in every horse race as well! I don't think there are going to many deaths after the end of June, because I think the people who are most vulnerable have already been exposed to the virus.

Wrong again. Randomized testing in NYC indicates an infection rate of 15 - 20%. Expect smaller infection rates country wide. That leaves a whole of wiggle room on the upside more way more infections and deaths post June, especially with varying level of restrictions removed and no credible amount of testing, contact tracing and quarantining available.

Can I get an "Amen" for Anbarandy - Pastor of the Pooner Board! Where would we be without your moral guidance!

Dare not reply lest someone's itchy trigger finger reanimates again, huh?

In any event, I'm not calling for the removal of every precaution. I think that LTC centers should continue in quarantine conditions until either a medication or vaccine is developed.

Don't know whether to laugh or cry. The majority of seniors, the at medically at risk and the immune compromised do not live in LTCs. With an infection rate less than 15% with the current restrictions, your Rx of LTC quarantine conditions coupled with your cry for the removal of restrictions, will most certainly guarantee that infection and thus death rates will soar.

See above. Not sure why my position wasn't already clear to you, since I've already posted about it.

Ditto.

The problem with your question is your implicit assumption that continuing a shut down of the economy would protect vulnerable seniors any more than quarantining them until medicine catches up with the virus. You can't "sacrifice" someone you have no way of saving. But you can save everyone else from the disaster of this meaningless lock down. You "think" these lock down measures are helping seniors. There's absolutely no proof that they are. Vulnerable seniors continue to die despite current measures. They've already been exposed. Most seniors are only mildy affected. Life goes on.

The problem with your "prescription for success" is that it is not a viable nor sustainable alternative not only from a public health perspective, but also from an ethical, societal, and most vitally important to you, an economic health perspective.

Face it, you're an outlier in society as your "prescription for success" cannot be fulfilled anywhere in Canada.

 

[Frankfooter]

That's the CNN spin (ignoring their own opposition to Trump taking action in January). The truth is more likely that there are a lot of different voices behind the scenes in government. No doubt that at least someone called for more drastic and early action, and others called for greater restraint. Anyone claiming that the administration unanimously told Trump to ignore WHO and the PRC and take earlier action is lying. Trump correctly anticipated the backlash of the press against PRC travel restrictions, and probably thought his decision might be viewed as moderate by the electorate as a whole.

Isn't Trump president?
Isn't it up to him to sort through the intel and make decisions based on the intel?
If so, then he made at least 12 decisions to not take the pandemic seriously.

Trump is a lot more savvy than your cadre give him credit for. He has some ability to pick his battles.

These are the battles Trump decided to tweet about today.
In a rampage of over 40 tweets the President lashed out, tweeting or retweeting about: his former National Security Advisor, fired and disgraced convicted felon Michael Flynn (a lot); former FBI Director Jim Comey, whom he also fired; his Senate acquittal; meat processing plants; Iowa Pork; Iowa; “The Do Nothing Democrats!”; BP America; a GOP Congressman’s attack on Joe Biden; a help wanted link; a right wing extremist pundit’s claim journalists never apologize, after one did the day before – which Trump tweeted; a Sexual Health Counselor’s tweet attacking CNN; Sweden; CNN’s Don Lemon; MSNBC’s Joe Scarborough; MSNBC’s Brian Williams (a lot); CNN (a lot); a lie that Hillary Clinton’s campaign colluded with Russia; “FAKE POLLING”; Roger Stone; Comcast; and a Happy Birthday message to a GOP Congressman.

Missing from those 40-plus tweets was a single word of sorrow, lament, sadness, or grief over the 61,680 Americans who have died from the devastating coronavirus, a pandemic his actions made exponentially worse.

Some of the models are turning out to be accurate, and some are wildly wrong. Somebody correctly bets on the winning horse in every horse race as well! I don't think there are going to many deaths after the end of June, because I think the people who are most vulnerable have already been exposed to the virus.

Trump bet on the poorest model, one that fit China's Wuhan curve (with its really strict policies) on US numbers only because it was the lowest estimate.
And now its way off.

 

[apoptygma]

Eventually, of course they will go down.

You are absolutely correct.
Eventually, there will be less people left to die. And then even less people left to die.
Get the pattern?

 

[Dutch Oven]

The problem with your "prescription for success" is that it is not a viable nor sustainable alternative not only from a public health perspective, but also from an ethical, societal, and most vitally important to you, an economic health perspective.

Face it, you're an outlier in society as your "prescription for success" cannot be fulfilled anywhere in Canada.

And there's your ultimate argument on display - you're right because you're right, and you think everyone thinks like you. No point responding to that.

No matter, the feds are running out of money fast. They'll have no choice but to play ball as the provinces re-open. Alberta announced reopening measures tonight. Theories always give way to the cruel reality of survival.

 

[Dutch Oven]

You are absolutely correct.
Eventually, there will be less people left to die. And then even less people left to die.
Get the pattern?

I get your pattern.

 

[apoptygma]

I get your pattern.

Please, elaborate.

 

[Anbarandy]

And there's your ultimate argument on display - you're right because you're right, and you think everyone thinks like you. No point responding to that.

No matter, the feds are running out of money fast. They'll have no choice but to play ball as the provinces re-open. Alberta announced reopening measures tonight. Theories always give way to the cruel reality of survival.

Public health and economic prosperity are interconnected. We cannot divorce one from the other and we definitely cannot have a prosperous economy without a strong public health system..

And in this time of a pandemic, to just flick back on the economic switch with an infection rate of less than 15% in the eye of the storm NYC and the virus still out there, without the necessary metrics in place, without the necessary measures in place to monitor, test, track, contact trace and quarantine; and especially without the public confidence in the institutional systems to do all of this, the economy will sputter because the public health systems will not be in a position to maintain the confidence of the people and will definitely not be able manage the consequences of the pandemic.

This virus ain't going anywhere soon. It resides in those infected among us. Opening up the economy too quickly, too soon and especially without the systems in place to mitigate it's damage as best as possible, will only cause further exponential damage to the economy that you so clearly wish to reignite.

This is not I wanting to be right, this is what the facts and the science instructs us.

 

[K Douglas]

The flu is seasonal and it looks like COVID-19 is not.
Which is why its coming back in places where they are relaxing social distancing.
Big, big difference.

The model Trump based his numbers off is also garbage, it basically just fit the Wunan curve onto US numbers assuming that the US would do the same. Its already 5,000 and predicts only 7,000 more deaths over the next month. There were 2,500 or so today.

Better are these projections.
https://reichlab.io/covid19-forecast-hub/

We don't know if its seasonal or not. There are so many things we don't know about it. China refuses to help us understand it.
Almost 1/3 of the deaths attributed to COVID19 in New York City are deemed 'probable' meaning that no positive COVID diagnosis was made.

 

[Frankfooter]

We don't know if its seasonal or not. There are so many things we don't know about it. China refuses to help us understand it.
Almost 1/3 of the deaths attributed to COVID19 in New York City are deemed 'probable' meaning that no positive COVID diagnosis was made.

Read this series.
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

 

[Boober69]

Read this series.
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

Amazing how this IT guy who wrote a book about Star Wars with no medical background suddenly becomes your source of truth.

And the fact that the WHO, an organization made up of health professionals, ignores Taiwan, and can't decide if wearing a mask is helpful or not against the virus, get's a pass from you.

It's no wonder your perception of reality is skewed.

 

[bver_hunter]

We don't know if its seasonal or not. There are so many things we don't know about it. China refuses to help us understand it.
Almost 1/3 of the deaths attributed to COVID19 in New York City are deemed 'probable' meaning that no positive COVID diagnosis was made.

So what else could these deaths be attributed to if they are not from Covid-19, especially as the symptoms were very similar to Covid-19?? Is there a second type of Covid-19 virus??

 

[Frankfooter]

Amazing how this IT guy who wrote a book about Star Wars with no medical background suddenly becomes your source of truth.

And the fact that the WHO, an organization made up of health professionals, ignores Taiwan, and can't decide if wearing a mask is helpful or not against the virus, get's a pass from you.

It's no wonder your perception of reality is skewed.

And where do you get your advice from?
Are you injecting Lysol, chloroquine or are you just using Alex Jone's toothpaste?

Looks like the next whistleblower scandal will hit Trump soon.
Whistleblower complaint set to lift lid on Trump pressure to push untried drug
Dr Rick Bright says he was removed as head of office working on a Covid-19 vaccine for refusing to boost hydroxychloroquine

 

[Boober69]

And where do you get your advice from?
Are you injecting Lysol, chloroquine or are you just using Alex Jone's toothpaste?

Looks like the next whistleblower scandal will hit Trump soon.
Whistleblower complaint set to lift lid on Trump pressure to push untried drug
Dr Rick Bright says he was removed as head of office working on a Covid-19 vaccine for refusing to boost hydroxychloroquine

I don't get my advice from Star Wars novelists when looking for health information like you do. Explains a lot Darth FrankFlubadooter.

 

[apoptygma]

I don't get my advice from Star Wars novelists when looking for health information like you do. Explains a lot Darth FrankFlubadooter.

Yeah, you get it from Fox News, and ignore The WORLD HEALTH Organization.

 

[Frankfooter]

I don't get my advice from Star Wars novelists when looking for health information like you do.

I know, you get it from that cannibal, Alex Jones.
https://twitter.com/RealKellyJones/.../2020/05/01/alex-jones-says-hes-ready-to.html

 

[Valcazar]

Despite the acrimony on the thread, it seems everyone believes that the lockdowns need to end. The disagreement is on time table and method. What does "opening up the economy" look like.

(There are disagreements about how they started as well.)

So what does it look like to you?

Dutch Oven, you have said you want the US to open up and it drag Canada along. You have talked about isolating seniors, and you think the PRC travel restrictions in January were useful.

So what does your opening plan look like? Is it "anyone over 70 must remain quarantined and all other activity returns to January 2020 rules?"

Are there any triggers at all for locking down again?
(Broad strokes only, we aren't actually government officials here.)

Anbarandy, you argue it is a moral disaster to open things in the current situation. What is your plan for opening up? What kind of time table, what kind of criteria?

Ignoring whether either Federal government reacted properly in the first place, and what provincial governments are saying now. Ignore who theoretically has the power to enforce closure of opening.

What would a "sensible" plan look like for either of you? What results would you expect?

 

[K Douglas]

So what else could these deaths be attributed to if they are not from Covid-19, especially as the symptoms were very similar to Covid-19?? Is there a second type of Covid-19 virus??

Could be normal seasonal flu. Or since in many of these deaths the patient had severe underlying conditions - heart disease, cancer, diabetes, hypertension. Or perhaps natural causes.

 

[Frankfooter]

Despite the acrimony on the thread, it seems everyone believes that the lockdowns need to end. The disagreement is on time table and method. What does "opening up the economy" look like.

(There are disagreements about how they started as well.)

So what does it look like to you?

Dutch Oven, you have said you want the US to open up and it drag Canada along. You have talked about isolating seniors, and you think the PRC travel restrictions in January were useful.

So what does your opening plan look like? Is it "anyone over 70 must remain quarantined and all other activity returns to January 2020 rules?"

Are there any triggers at all for locking down again?
(Broad strokes only, we aren't actually government officials here.)

Anbarandy, you argue it is a moral disaster to open things in the current situation. What is your plan for opening up? What kind of time table, what kind of criteria?

Ignoring whether either Federal government reacted properly in the first place, and what provincial governments are saying now. Ignore who theoretically has the power to enforce closure of opening.

What would a "sensible" plan look like for either of you? What results would you expect?

Up testing and start contact tracing.

Those are the requirements to keep R>1.

 

[toguy5252]

Could be normal seasonal flu. Or since in many of these deaths the patient had severe underlying conditions - heart disease, cancer, diabetes, hypertension. Or perhaps natural causes.

Must be nice to be able to make a diagnosis from the comfort of your basement on a porn board. You must have had an uncle who once taught engineering at MIT.