The scariest numbers to remember are these two:
5 and 15
- Thus far we have, based upon a NY state study of state wide, randomized testing, an overall infection rate among the total population of only just 5 - 15%, with 15% being densely populated NYC. Most other areas and regions within the state range between having a 5% - <10% overall infection rate. We can expect that Ontario and GTA numbers to be similar trending to a lower overall infection rate as a percentage of Ontario's population.
The most unnerving numbers to remember are these two:
60 and 70
- According to a consensus of epidemiologists, in order to arrive at and maintain "herd immunity", which would seriously negate the spread of covid, the overall infection rate in an overall population would have to rise to 60 - 70%. We are nowhere near that point in Ontario. The virus left to it's own devices and "unchecked" by governmental public health intervention will keep on spreading till it infects 60 - 70% of Ontarians at which point herd immunity occurs and the virus would really have exhausted itself of unwitting hosts. Remember we have a most probable infection rate in Ontario of just 5% and the GTA of about 10%. That means there is exponentially more damage that the virus will wreak if we relax to quickly without the steps necessary to mitigate it's consequences confidently in place.
Two shocking numbers to remember are these:
3 and 100
- it only takes 3 covid infected people to be able to spread the virus to 100 other people even before they exhibit symptoms or worse are asymptomatic. Also since there is no functioning plan at this time for randomized testing, asymptomatic virus spreaders are walking around as super spreaders. 3 = 100, 30 = 1000, 300 = 10,000 …. Get the picture?
One tiny and one large number to remember:
.0025 and 24,500
- Any serious epidemiologist will tell you that the overall death rate due to covid until we arrive at herd immunity among the total overall population will be around .0075 - .001. Now lets suppose we generously lower that death rate to let's say, .0025. The total deaths attributed to covid in Ontario before arriving at herd immunity will be 24,500. If the death rate increases to .005 of Ontario's population the death toll increases to 49,000. Are these numbers acceptable to you? What can be done to lower these numbers?
Which brings us to these numbers:
16,000 and 100,000
To be generous, Ontario is currently performing 16,000 covid tests a day. You may say "wow" that is a whole lot of tests. However, epidemiologists would say that a population the size of Ontario's would need to perform 100,000 tests per day of the general population and not just suspected covid infections to safely open up without subsequent new waves of infections and corresponding deaths occur. And it is not just "testing" that is needed, it is testing that would provides results in in a matter of hours, not days. Testing that results in more than a day or days of delay for results are basically "wasted" tests.
Testing, testing, testing in "real time" at a rate of 100,000 per day of the general population and contact tracing and isolating the infected rapidly is what will slow down the spread. Why is important to slow down the spread? It is a) to buy us time until therapies and vaccines arrive, 2) to not overwhelm the public health system to the point of and beyond the point of a fatalistic collapse and 3) to effectively mitigate the probability of even more public health and economic damage that subsequent waves of covid infections and ensuing deaths from occurring by opening up the economy too quickly without the absolute necessity of the robust testing, contact tracing and isolating in place as previously proscribed.
Has Ontario arrived at point to conduct "rapid" testing? The answer is NO. Why are new cases still showing up after 6 plus weeks of lock down? Where are the person to person transmission points? The answer is we do not know because we don't have sufficient testing in place and the protocols to determine where and how these new cases are arising? If we are getting 100's of new cases a day even with an extreme lock down in place, just imagine what would happen when we lift restrictions AND still not have the necessary testing, tracing and isolating needed in place. It is a recipe for disaster.
Numbers equal data, data leads to data points, data points lead the way to a fact based decision making process. The question is, will our political leaders follow the data or succumb to political pressure at the risk of our own collective public and economic health?
The above is not MY answer to the question of when and how we should open back up. They are the facts according to the experts, the scientists and epidemiologists.
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