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The 2025 Toronto Blue Jays

maurice93

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IMHO, the price of Leaf tickets and the price of Jay tickets are totally different!! The Leafs aren't going to sign Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner to contracts until their 38 yrs old.....LMAO
Matthews will very likely get an 8 year deal (the max in the NHL) through the age of 39.

Matthews third contract will very likely be an 8 year deal that takes him to 39.
That was the reason he signed the current 4 year bridge.
 
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shack

Nitpicker Extraordinaire
Oct 2, 2001
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IMHO, the price of Leaf tickets and the price of Jay tickets are totally different!! The Leafs aren't going to sign Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner to contracts until their 38 yrs old.....LMAO
They're exactly the same. They're both way more expensive sports to watch than they used to be mainly because of skyrocketting salaries. And it's the same in every other sport. There is no business model in any sport that has prevented this from happening.

Don't kid yourself, teams in hockey will be offering long term superstar contracts if they want and need to retain those players.
 

mitchell76

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Aug 10, 2010
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Nobody expects him to be worth the same money in 15 or 12 or even 10 years. They don't care. They sign them for the here and now and the increased revenue that a competitive team can bring. Give the team 5-8 years of peak performance and they'll have gotten their money's worth.

Look at all of the long term huge contract deals being done now. That's the way the business is currently conducted. And the way things are going, in 14 years, Vladdy's contract will be looking like peanuts.

Until there's a salary cap, there's no need to talk about what contracts are logical or not. We can see for ourselves that insanity reigns supreme.
That is if Vladdy doesn't get injured after 2-3 more yrs. Then the Jays are left , "holding the bag."

@tml example of Bobby Bonilla, was an excellent one!!

 

shack

Nitpicker Extraordinaire
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IMHO, the Jays would be totally "dumb" to sign Vladdy to a 14 yr contract!!
They would be totally dumb to let a homegrown superstar who wants to remain here walk away when there will be "dumb" offers like that from a handful of other teams.

Do you think that having empty seats is smart?
 

shack

Nitpicker Extraordinaire
Oct 2, 2001
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Several of the players who fit one of these two scenarios, (Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Chris Davis, Prince Fielder, Joey Votto), were first basemen.
But they paid value for their contracts over the term of their contracts in the years that they were producing. The teams are not stupid. They need to pay for their golden years to get their prime years. And the agents know it as well. The more players you name, the more it proves that this is the current business model. It is not a secret to anyone.
 

mitchell76

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Aug 10, 2010
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They would be totally dumb to let a homegrown superstar who wants to remain here walk away when there will be "dumb" offers like that from a handful of other teams.

Do you think that having empty seats is smart?
The problem is, Vladdy's not such a "superstar."!!
 

shack

Nitpicker Extraordinaire
Oct 2, 2001
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Vladdy is not worth it to the Jays to sign a 14 yr contract. Vladdy's "heavy' body type will make the Jays lucky to get two more yrs out of him!! That is if the Jays sign him, after this season?? It's like in Pro tennis. Milos Raonic and Bianca Andreescu had to retire from Pro tennis because both their body types weren't conducive to playing pro tennis, for the long term!! When Milos was playing, he was always getting injured!!

Bianca had one awesome year in 2019, when she won the US open and Indian Wells, but then she's never been the same since. Bianca has been injured ever since, because of her "heavy set" body type, compared to other women elite pro tennis players!!
You talk about Vladdy as if it's a certainty that he will revert to his old self. The undeniable fact is that he's improved his conditioning every year. All you have is non-factual speculation about his regimen. Milos and Bianca never got a chance to play 1st base or DH. Tennis is way more demanding physically. Raducanu is not fat and has had multiple injuries. Juan Martin del Potro is/was not fat. Tennis and baseball are totally different animals. You must agree because you didn't list any baseball players.

I mentioned it before and you didn't address it. He reveres his father, a proud Hall of Famer. Do you think Vladdy doesn't care about his father's legacy and living up to it. He wants nothing more than to make his father proud. You cannot just ignore that as a major part of his motivation.

Do you think he'd rather eat than join his father in the Hall? Or as long as he signs a big contract his father won't give a shit about how Vladdy performs after that?
 

mitchell76

Well-known member
Aug 10, 2010
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You talk about Vladdy as if it's a certainty that he will revert to his old self. The undeniable fact is that he's improved his conditioning every year. All you have is non-factual speculation about his regimen. Milos and Bianca never got a chance to play 1st base or DH. Tennis is way more demanding physically. Raducanu is not fat and has had multiple injuries. Juan Martin del Potro is/was not fat. Tennis and baseball are totally different animals. You must agree because you didn't list any baseball players.

I mentioned it before and you didn't address it. He reveres his father, a proud Hall of Famer. Do you think Vladdy doesn't care about his father's legacy and living up to it. He wants nothing more than to make his father proud. You cannot just ignore that as a major part of his motivation.

Do you think he'd rather eat than join his father in the Hall? Or as long as he signs a big contract his father won't give a shit about how Vladdy performs after that?
IMHO, Vladdy's still "too heavy."!! Who cares about Vladdy's father's legacy??
 

mitchell76

Well-known member
Aug 10, 2010
25,704
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You talk about Vladdy as if it's a certainty that he will revert to his old self. The undeniable fact is that he's improved his conditioning every year. All you have is non-factual speculation about his regimen. Milos and Bianca never got a chance to play 1st base or DH. Tennis is way more demanding physically. Raducanu is not fat and has had multiple injuries. Juan Martin del Potro is/was not fat. Tennis and baseball are totally different animals. You must agree because you didn't list any baseball players.

I mentioned it before and you didn't address it. He reveres his father, a proud Hall of Famer. Do you think Vladdy doesn't care about his father's legacy and living up to it. He wants nothing more than to make his father proud. You cannot just ignore that as a major part of his motivation.

Do you think he'd rather eat than join his father in the Hall? Or as long as he signs a big contract his father won't give a shit about how Vladdy performs after that?
The worst 10 MLB contracts of all-time!!

 

shack

Nitpicker Extraordinaire
Oct 2, 2001
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That is if Vladdy doesn't get injured after 2-3 more yrs. Then the Jays are left , "holding the bag."
2 points make this a very silly post.

1) That is the exact same situation for every player on every team.

2) Since his first year opening the regular season on Toronto's MLB roster (2020), Guerrero has missed just 12 regular-season games.

LOLOLOLOLOL. You are grasping at speculative straws. Maybe better do some retweeting in the Politics Forums.
 
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onomatopoeia

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Jul 3, 2020
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The Houston Astros have a good business model.

They pay their players based on their expected future performance in an Astros uniform. If a player is approaching free agency, they usually trade him if his asking price is more than his anticipated future on field value. If they are contending for a championship, they're buyers in the short-term rental category. If they're not in contention, they trade their expiring contracts for prospects and controllable talent.

The Blue Jays tend to pay players based on their recent past performance with other teams, without taking into account the almost inevitable decline in production because of increased age. They are buyers at the trade deadline when they have a chance to contend for a low seed in the post season. They also tend to wait too long to pull the trigger on trading expiring contracts, so they receive less for them in return.

The major equation in pro sports is the ratio of cost to production. This is based on the team as a whole, rather than on an individual player basis. If a team has several young stars who don't yet qualify for Arbitration 2, (ie: their production vastly exceeds their cost), the team can afford to overpay for 'missing pieces' which would be the difference between a World Series championship contender and a Division Series loser.

The problem with the Blue Jays roster is that they have very few players who are worth more than they are paid, and several who are being paid more than they are worth. They have a payroll in the top six or so, and mid pack talent.

I think the 2025 team, as currently constructed, has a legitimate chance of winning 83 games, +/- 3. That MIGHT get them into the Wild Card round. That will help ticket sales an television ratings, but they aren't contenders.

@shack: There is a huge difference between a team owner like Steve Cohen of the Mets and Rogers. Cohen is the 30th richest man in the United States, according to Forbes. The Mets are his toy. He would rather have a championship trophy than turn a profit on his baseball team. Rogers is primarily owned by stock holders rather than the Rogers family, and the majority of those stocks are owned by investment fund groups. Those groups are much more concerned with stock prices and shareholders' dividends than in winning championships. It is important to those groups that the team appear to be competitive for as long as possible in each season, or their target audience will find different ways to spend their entertainment budget.

Toronto is now the third largest city/ market with a Major League team, and the largest with only one. It is, however, a small market from the perspective of US Network television, and star players looking for endorsement income in addition to their salaries.
 
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onomatopoeia

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But they paid value for their contracts over the term of their contracts in the years that they were producing. The teams are not stupid. They need to pay for their golden years to get their prime years. And the agents know it as well. The more players you name, the more it proves that this is the current business model. It is not a secret to anyone.
The St Louis Cardinals received good value for Albert Pujols' prime years. The Angels overpaid for his declining years.

Joey Votto was the 'face' of the Reds' franchise. They consistently lost 100+ games a season through most of the later years of his contract.

First base, left field and designated hitter are the easiest holes to fill, because they don't require as much fielding prowess as a 'skill position'. It's debatable whether or not the Blue Jays would receive more production from Vlad at $40 Million/ year than they would with a $18 Million first baseman, a $20 Million starting pitcher, and a $2 Million defensive-minded backup catcher.
 
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shack

Nitpicker Extraordinaire
Oct 2, 2001
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The worst 10 MLB contracts of all-time!!

Is there a common theme in all those contracts that apply specifically to Vladdy?

Or are you saying that no team should ever offer a long term contract to any player because there is some risk involved? And once again, just because a player is not nearly worth his value near the end of his career, he has already provided plenty of value in the earlier years. And Vladdy is one of the youngest, offering more prime years than anyone else.

Years and years ago Charles O. Finley suggested all players only be offered one year contracts and then they all become free agents at the end of the season. It sounded crazy but made some sense. Regardless, the industry has evolved in a very different manner. Teams cannot operate in a vacuum. They must operate according to what is the hear and now. More and more teams are willing to offer very long term and lucrative contracts. This is the current reality.
 

mitchell76

Well-known member
Aug 10, 2010
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Is there a common theme in all those contracts that apply specifically to Vladdy?

Or are you saying that no team should ever offer a long term contract to any player because there is some risk involved? And once again, just because a player is not nearly worth his value near the end of his career, he has already provided plenty of value in the earlier years. And Vladdy is one of the youngest, offering more prime years than anyone else.

Years and years ago Charles O. Finley suggested all players only be offered one year contracts and then they all become free agents at the end of the season. It sounded crazy but made some sense. Regardless, the industry has evolved in a very different manner. Teams cannot operate in a vacuum. They must operate according to what is the hear and now. More and more teams are willing to offer very long term and lucrative contracts. This is the current reality.
I guess I'm just not a Vladdy fan!!
 

shack

Nitpicker Extraordinaire
Oct 2, 2001
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The St Louis Cardinals received good value for Albert Pujols' prime years. The Angels overpaid for his declining years.
At 25, Vladdy is offering his prime years to them. And I believe that is more prime than declining.

Joey Votto was the 'face' of the Reds' franchise. They consistently lost 100+ games a season through most of the later years of his contract.
If they wasted his prime years because of their incompetence, that is not on him.
 

shack

Nitpicker Extraordinaire
Oct 2, 2001
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Another one down for the Yankees
Stanton and Cole. Not insignificant pieces.

At the risk of using too much bandwidth, here's a list of NYY injuries.

2025 New York Yankees Injuries - MLB - CBSSports.com
 
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