Creating some positivity here for the Jays in 2025. (not that there is not room for negativity als)
The 2023 Jays, a frustrating offensive team compared to 2021 and 2022, still won 89 games. So let's compare the 2025 Jays to the 2023 Jays.
5 Same Starters in Lineup - I think you can expect similar or perhaps even a tad better production in 2025 from these guys, just due to Vlad who had a mediocre 2023 offensively, and Kirk who was not good in 2023 either.
C Kirk
1B Vlad
SS Bichette
OF Springer
OF Varsho
Kirk, Vlad, and Varsho were all better in 2024 vs 2023. Vlad had a really mediocre 2023. Bo went down in 24, and Springer went down in 24.
4 Changes in Starting Lineup - Similar level of production from these 4 is quite possible.
Chapman / Clement
Belt / Santander
Merrifield / Gonzales
KK / Wagner
Belt and KK were actually quite productive in 2023, but if Santander can bash he can certainly be a bit better than Belt. Gonzales is a nice upgrade over Whit. Clement is a downgrade obviously, although Chapman in 2023 was not that good. Hope Wagner can be our Horwitz type bat this year. Gonzalez had a huge 2022, that maybe he can get back too.
I think they can possibly be a draw in 2025 production vs 2023.
Starting Rotation
2023 vs 2025
Gausman / Gausman
Bassitt / Bassitt
Berrios / Berrios
Kikuchi / Francis
Manoah+Ryu / Scherzer
Bassitt + Berrios were similar in 2023 and 2024, so its reasonable to expect 2025 to be similar to 2023.
Kikuchi was solid in 2023, but Francis we saw in second half can certainly match that productivity.
Gausman was great in 2023.... can't expect him to do that in 2025. Gausman 2025 is a big downgrade vs Gausman 2023
Manoah + RYU had a combined ERA over 5.00 in 2023, If Scherzer can get to 140+ innings this should be an upgrade.
I think its possible that the rotation production is as good in 2025 as 2023. Gausman won't be as good, but lots depends on Francis and Scherzer.
Bullpen
By the end of 2023 the Jays were running a very nice bullpen. Hicks + Romano at the end were solid. Swanson + Mayza were also very good as the 3+4. They were also getting production from #5-#7... Garcia (who was frustrating in 2023), Richards, Jackson, Genesis was a good bottom half.
The Bullpen was very bad in 2024. Should be much better in 2025 (Garcia, Sandlin, Hoffman), but I don't think its mearly as good as it was at the end of 2023. That being said some of that production in 2023 came via trade (Hicks, Cabrera). Jays if contending will probably look to add a bullpen arm.
Summary
Offence and Starters should be similar, with some upside potential (and of course downside as well).
Biggest decline is the Bullpen which was really rolling for the Jays by the end of 2023.
On offence I think we should be as good in 2025 in 2023, if we get good Vlad.
Of course will need a big Bo bounce back (he was so bad in 2024 that he has to at least improve). Nothing is ever certain on other guys but a nice year from Wagner, and a bounce back from Gimenez would be nice. Of course I also see a scenario where we have a .195 hitting Santander with about 30 HR's and low OBP... which is not a good player.
Starters really depends on Francis and Scherzer.