The Houston Astros have a good business model.
They pay their players based on their expected future performance in an Astros uniform. If a player is approaching free agency, they usually trade him if his asking price is more than his anticipated future on field value. If they are contending for a championship, they're buyers in the short-term rental category. If they're not in contention, they trade their expiring contracts for prospects and controllable talent.
The Blue Jays tend to pay players based on their recent past performance with other teams, without taking into account the almost inevitable decline in production because of increased age. They are buyers at the trade deadline when they have a chance to contend for a low seed in the post season. They also tend to wait too long to pull the trigger on trading expiring contracts, so they receive less for them in return.
The major equation in pro sports is the ratio of cost to production. This is based on the team as a whole, rather than on an individual player basis. If a team has several young stars who don't yet qualify for Arbitration 2, (ie: their production vastly exceeds their cost), the team can afford to overpay for 'missing pieces' which would be the difference between a World Series championship contender and a Division Series loser.
The problem with the Blue Jays roster is that they have very few players who are worth more than they are paid, and several who are being paid more than they are worth. They have a payroll in the top six or so, and mid pack talent.
I think the 2025 team, as currently constructed, has a legitimate chance of winning 83 games, +/- 3. That MIGHT get them into the Wild Card round. That will help ticket sales an television ratings, but they aren't contenders.
@shack: There is a huge difference between a team owner like Steve Cohen of the Mets and Rogers. Cohen is the 30th richest man in the United States, according to Forbes. The Mets are his toy. He would rather have a championship trophy than turn a profit on his baseball team. Rogers is primarily owned by stock holders rather than the Rogers family, and the majority of those stocks are owned by investment fund groups. Those groups are much more concerned with stock prices and shareholders' dividends than in winning championships. It is important to those groups that the team appear to be competitive for as long as possible in each season, or their target audience will find different ways to spend their entertainment budget.
Toronto is now the third largest city/ market with a Major League team, and the largest with only one. It is, however, a small market from the perspective of US Network television, and star players looking for endorsement income in addition to their salaries.
