MLB Free Agent Season

[maurice93]

Cubbies just weren't the right fit for him. I am going to target him in my fantasy baseball leagues this season. He's in for a monster campaign.

He's in for a monster campaign based on what exactly? Why are people treating his 2024 season as some sort of abnormality. 2024 is basically exactly who he is - it was arguably his second best year in the last five.
2019 was a long time ago in baseball terms. He has averaged 18 home runs a year since 2021.

In 2020 his OPS+ was 112 (just a bit above average)
2021 - his OPS+ was 44. One of the worst hitting seasons since 2000, by anyone.
2022 - his OPS+ was 81 - a bit below what we get from Daulton Varsho.
2023 - his OPS+ was 139. That's a very strong year.
2024 - his OPS+ was back 111 (just a bit above average)

2024 was not an outlier. 2023 was the outlier. Here is the problem. I have read some data geeks who calculated that his 2023 season was in the 99th percentile of "luck" if you compare his actual stats to his ball in play, hard hit%. That type of stuff is generally predictive to regression the next year. Sure you can say advanced stats garbage, and sometimes I feel the same, but the data didn't lie here and played itself out in 2024. There is a reason he was not as attractive as expected in FA last winter. and it can't come as a surprise that he regressed back to his norms in 2024..

 

[maurice93]

Chris Bassett is cool with all his pictures and blah blah blah and he calls his own game and blah blah blah….. but he’s pretty useless at the end of the day. Trade bait?

Philip

He has been fine as a #3/#4 starter. Gives you average of 185 innings, with an ERA+ just above average.
No point trading him as we are trying to compete this year.
If we are out of it in July, if he pitches like he did in 23/24, we will manage to get a prospect or two for him.

He can be a headcase out there, I'll give you that.

 

[maurice93]

He'd be the 1st candidate, for sure.

What exactly are you expecting from a 3rd/4th starter Shack?
Listen, it would be nice if we had some player development so we weren't spending $21m on this role, but he has been fine in this role. Not exceeding it, but not really failing either.

But like I said to Phillip, he can certainly get in his own head out there within his various antics.

 

[maurice93]

My idea of acquiring Bellinger for 2023 would’ve been a good one…. But yeah, last year he was a stinker.. I’ll go on record saying right now however, Cody is going to have a monster year in New York in 2025. With that short porch in right he’s probably going hit 40. I’m excited to see what he can do hitting between Judge and Stanton. Most of the Yankee podcasts love this move.

Philip

Your idea of acquiring Bellinger for 1/12 in 2023, would have been a great one.
But I know you wanted to go for him when Boras was seeking 6-8 years and $200-$300M last winter, based on his good 2023 season. Even I was entertaining it as we were wondering why the market was not going after him. That would have been a disaster, and thankfully the Jays didn't add that to their list of mistakes in recent years.

There is zero evidence to suggest he will hit 40.
The most home runs he has it in a year since 2019 is 26. His last 4 full seasons have been 10, 19, 26, 18. He's basically established himself as a 20 HR guy.
Wrigley is not a bad hitter's park either ... you can a few extra bombs to his total, but nothing drastic like 10 or 20.

 

[maurice93]

As for the Jays offseason it has been fairly solid**. The reason it has been solid is not because of Shatkins, but because Rogers continues to give this team plenty of money to spend so it could get some upgrades to fill holes caused by poor player development or regression at the MLB level. Now if we can get that money to a different management team it would be great (** disregarding the failure to sign Vlad which of course is a problem)

I see this team as being something between the 75 and 90 win range. 75 if things go bad, 90 if things go really, really right. Of course with this payroll that range is not good. A typical contender is looking at a range of 84-98 as downside/upside. But management has done such a bad job since 2021, in terms of player development -- perhaps even more at the MLB level but very much so at the minor league level as well.

Our bullpen should be much better. Our offence has potential to be a decent amount better based on Santander, and more importantly if Bo can bounce back. A bit of a bounce back from Gimenez would also be welcome. Of course the offence is also where the downside risk is.

My concern is that we are in "NO MAN's LAND" at the deadline-- say 55-52, 56-51. A few games out so we don't move on our pending FA's.

 

[maurice93]

The AL is not that strong this year with many question marks. It could be a league again where 86-87 wins gets you in the playoff.

If we simply look at the playoff teams last year
Cleveland took a step back
Detroit didn't do much
KC did a few things, but are still a bit of a question mark.
Houston may lose Tucker, Bregman.
Baltimore is fucking around with what should be a great window, because their new owners aren't spending.

Boston did some nice things, Texas might bounce back.
Yanks probably hold steady as they decently recovered from Soto. But they are an old team too, so surprising regression is always a possibility (not that we are in a different boat either)

 

[bemeup]

Scherzer signing is horrible. He's 40 years old and has pitched a total of 88 innings the past two seasons. I would have rather gotten Verlander for that same price.

And if they had got Verlander instead of Scherzer, then Kate Upton would be in Toronto, so there’s that.

 

[The Oracle]

Yankees Potential Free Agent Target: Max Scherzer

Let’s dig into the Bombers’ recent interest in the future Hall of Fame pitcher.

www.pinstripealley.com

A breakdown on the Yankees interest in Max and why they probably didn't sign him.

 

[shack]

What exactly are you expecting from a 3rd/4th starter Shack?

I was saying that from our rotation, I think that based on his age and recent performances he'd be the 1st to be traded. Berrios and Gausman are both better pitchers and with their aging rotation I don't think they'd trade Francis either. Depending on how they each perform this year and where the Jays are in the standings, him or Scherzer would be the first choices.

 

[maurice93]

I was saying that from our rotation, I think that based on his age and recent performances he'd be the 1st to be traded. Berrios and Gausman are both better pitchers and with their aging rotation I don't think they'd trade Francis either. Depending on how they each perform this year and where the Jays are in the standings, him or Scherzer would be the first choices.

I see your point. He's not getting signed to an extension, and if we are out of the race at the deadline he will be moved.

That being pretty much any pending FA will be dealt if we are out of the race at the deadline.

Right now the list is:
Bassitt
Scherzer
Green
Swanson
Vlad
Bichette

Hopefully we tie up Vlad - don't care about the others.

 

[shack]

Hopefully we tie up Vlad - don't care about the others.

I'd like to see Bo signed as well. Prior to last year he was an almost automatic 200 hit per season guy. That's nothing to sneeze at. You want to have ducks on the pond for Vlad and Santander.

I think he has enough pride in his game to want to return to form.

 

[maurice93]

Yankees Potential Free Agent Target: Max Scherzer

Let’s dig into the Bombers’ recent interest in the future Hall of Fame pitcher.

www.pinstripealley.com

A breakdown on the Yankees interest in Max and why they probably didn't sign him.

The Yankees have some nice depth at the bottom of the rotation in terms of #4/#5 guys.. they are at least one starter deeper than the Jays. It doesn't make sense for them to get a 4/5 guy at that cost when they already have alternatives that aren't cheap.

Also seems they are close to their internal budget.

Jays had a bit of money to spend, and a more defined hole at the 5 spot. I would have preferred the Jays spend the $15M on offence earlier in the winter, but there aren't really many great options left other than Alonso and Bregman. And apparently the Jays are still in on them -- being used as leverage at this point, in my view. I would be somewhat surprised if Alonso and Bregman don't end up back with the Mets and Astros.

 

[maurice93]

I'd like to see Bo signed as well. Prior to last year he was an almost automatic 200 hit per season guy. That's nothing to sneeze at. You want to have ducks on the pond for Vlad and Santander.

I think he has enough pride in his game to want to return to form.

Yes getting ducks on the pond is important, but Bo despite the hits is not exactly elite at getting on base. While his .290 career average is very good, his .332 career OBP is OK but still fairly middling.

If you give me a reasonable number then sure i would keep Bo. But that number is no more than low 20's for me even if has a decent 2025 -- and I'm sure he is seeking more.

The problem with Bo is that people define his value based on thinking he is a great hitter for a SS. But two problems with that:
1) He's not good defensively at SS.
2) He is no longer an elite hitter at SS (Even if we used his 22 and 23 stats)

He is at the borders of a top 10 hitter at SS, and that is before we consider defence.

Look at the shortstops who have come into prominence since the beginning of the 2023 season - Bobby Witt, Elly De La Cruz, Gunnar Henderson, Mookie Betts (who was moved to SS).

Then you veterans like Lindor, Seager, Turner, Adames, Correa.
Bring in defence and its hard to put Bichette over guys like Dansby Swanson, Masyn Winn, Edgar Tovar and even someone like Anthony Volpe assuming he has a bit of progression,

 

[Toronto Passions]

I could never cheer for a NY, LA, Chi Town or Philly based team ever.

I go to New York often and I go to LA often. Plus I have a family connection with the Dodgers. I have automatically adopted the Yankees and the Dodgers as my teams of interest lol.

….but never mind all that the Pete Alonso rumors are heating up again. As long as they allow room for Barger and Clase to develop, I’m very welcome into the Alonso move if they can pull it off. That’s a dangerous meat of the lineup. Guerrero, Santander and Alonso.. my goodness.

I still feel like the rotation needs one lefty, and like I said, I would love to see them re-sign Yarborough for the pen. If they can pull all of these moves off and extend Guerrero, we might have a serious team on our hands.

Philip

 

[Toronto Passions]

He'd be the 1st candidate, for sure.

I wouldn’t mind seeing them move Bassett. yada yada yada he calls his own game potentially at times, and he throws 8 pitches or whatever the number is….. it’s a tough call to know if his 2024 campaign is a hint of his decline. Or do we just run all of these righties out there and wait for Manoah and Tiedemann. Decisions, decisions, decisions… Poor Ross Atkins, LMAO.

Philip

 

[Toronto Passions]

He has been fine as a #3/#4 starter. Gives you average of 185 innings, with an ERA+ just above average.
No point trading him as we are trying to compete this year.
If we are out of it in July, if he pitches like he did in 23/24, we will manage to get a prospect or two for him.

He can be a headcase out there, I'll give you that.

…. he also spoke poorly against the organization and questioned the organization. That’s ALSO a bad apple in a bunch. Not saying he was wrong……

Philip

 

[Toronto Passions]

Your idea of acquiring Bellinger for 1/12 in 2023, would have been a great one.
But I know you wanted to go for him when Boras was seeking 6-8 years and $200-$300M last winter, based on his good 2023 season. Even I was entertaining it as we were wondering why the market was not going after him. That would have been a disaster, and thankfully the Jays didn't add that to their list of mistakes in recent years.

There is zero evidence to suggest he will hit 40.
The most home runs he has it in a year since 2019 is 26. His last 4 full seasons have been 10, 19, 26, 18. He's basically established himself as a 20 HR guy.
Wrigley is not a bad hitter's park either ... you can a few extra bombs to his total, but nothing drastic like 10 or 20.

I’ve seen YouTube video breakdowns about his hard hit ball percentage as well and all that stuff.. I just always get a feeling about this guy that if he works hard, he will have success. I feel like he’s got many good years left. Cody might become the Brett Saberhagen of hitting. One good year, one stinker, one good year, one stinker, etc., etc.……

Philip

 

[K Douglas]

Its 196, not 88. You only took Max's 2023 stats with Texas, and didn't add the 108 innings he pitched with the Mets in 2023.

As for Verlander over him. I don't see it. Verlander only pitched 88 innings himself last year, and he was far less productive with an ERA of 5.48. The predictive pitch analytic stuff (velocity, spin, contact whiff rate) show that Scherzer was a fair bit better than Verlander last year, as well as the traditional stats. Of course we are still dealing with just 43 innings vs 88. Both come with similar risks. I think the Giants and Jays would be happy to get 100 innings of sub 4.00 era from either one of them.

My bad I misread. Still doesn't change my mind much. To be honest I wouldn't have signed either of them. Why not take a chance on Mike Soroka, a Canadian kid. Or Jack Flaherty. Or even Shane Bieber who I know is coming off of Tommy John surgery but is a former Cy Young winner.

 

[K Douglas]

He's in for a monster campaign based on what exactly? Why are people treating his 2024 season as some sort of abnormality. 2024 is basically exactly who he is - it was arguably his second best year in the last five.
2019 was a long time ago in baseball terms. He has averaged 18 home runs a year since 2021.

In 2020 his OPS+ was 112 (just a bit above average)
2021 - his OPS+ was 44. One of the worst hitting seasons since 2000, by anyone.
2022 - his OPS+ was 81 - a bit below what we get from Daulton Varsho.
2023 - his OPS+ was 139. That's a very strong year.
2024 - his OPS+ was back 111 (just a bit above average)

2024 was not an outlier. 2023 was the outlier. Here is the problem. I have read some data geeks who calculated that his 2023 season was in the 99th percentile of "luck" if you compare his actual stats to his ball in play, hard hit%. That type of stuff is generally predictive to regression the next year. Sure you can say advanced stats garbage, and sometimes I feel the same, but the data didn't lie here and played itself out in 2024. There is a reason he was not as attractive as expected in FA last winter. and it can't come as a surprise that he regressed back to his norms in 2024..

I don't count 2020/2021 stats it was Covid and things were messed up. The only thing I can explain in 2022 was that he was very unhappy and not focused. 2023 is what made me believe that he hadn't 'lost' it. OK maybe the stats are inflated based on metrics but 2024 regression wasn't just him - Swanson, Hoerner, Morel all were down from their 2023 stats. Also lets face it the Cubs aren't a great hitting lineup like the Yankees are. Which is why I expect Bellinger will be somewhere closer to his 2017-2019, 2023 stats. I easily see him hitting 30 bombs and 90+ RBI batting 5th in the lineup.

 

[maurice93]

My bad I misread. Still doesn't change my mind much. To be honest I wouldn't have signed either of them. Why not take a chance on Mike Soroka, a Canadian kid. Or Jack Flaherty. Or even Shane Bieber who I know is coming off of Tommy John surgery but is a former Cy Young winner.

I'm certainly not claiming its a great deal either -- could be fine for a 4th starter if (and it's not a minor if) he stays healthy. But there is downside too. Just that its either a bit better than or certainly no worse than Verlander.

As for the other options - there has to be mutual interest. I would of liked Flaherty, but is would have been around 2/54 or 3/75 in my view to get it done.

My first thought when I saw Flaherty at the published 2/35 figure a few days back, was that's a lot better than Scherzer and a great deal. But that deal is a bit misrepresentative -- if he makes 15 starts in 2025, it goes up to 2/45. So only way he gets paid $35m, is if he has a bad year in 2025, so the contract ends up being a bad one. I would still like Flaherty at 2/45.... but then you add in a few mill for taxes, and then the fact that Flaherty really liked it in Detroit in 2024 and had his best performance there since 2021. To beat Detroit's 2/45, your probably looking at 2/54 or 3/75. Do you go there for someone who struggled in 2022 and 2023. Not sure, maybe though. And again is he interested in Toronto? Probably didn't help that we wasted $5M of budget space on Myles freaking Straw.

Bieber wanted to stay in Cleveland. They got him done early in FA season, not a realistic target for the Jays.

As for Soroka at $9m, its a risky contract.. I think I prefer Scherzer at $15m - even age considered its less injury and performance risk. Soroka hasn't been good since 2019. Hurt basically all of 20, 21, 22. And in the 15 starts in 2023/2024 he was absolutely terrible -- 15 starts at 6.38 ERA. It does seem he finally figured it out with the White Sox as a reliever in 2024. Getting out of the White Sox should help anyone though.