It is much closer to the truth. He clearly stated it's a security issue. Plans to use the border security excuse. And who did Trudeau take down? Not a trade minister, but the Security Minister.
All Canada has to do is add some patrols, buy some tech and few choppers from USA vendors, announce a joint task force, and suddenly Trump will declare a win. It's all optics. And we get hopefully less guns crossing the border.
Why is this such a bad thing?
He will have too much push back from USA exporters, the Teamsters, and his own party to really do this. Everyone will want an "exemption " resulting in another watered down trade announcement in about a year, before the midterms, declaring another "victory" that will be little.
So relax, take out the emotion, and really wander down the thought paths.