Vlad has been healthy so far but at age 25, he's already played about 400 games on artificial turf. He has a large frame, and there's a very real possibility that all of his best years will be before age 30 or thereabouts. Cecil Fielder had height and weight stats similar to Vlad's, and he was pretty much done by age 32.
If Vlad turns into Justin Smoak with five years left on a 'lifetime' contract at $35 Million+ per season, that would hinder the Jays for about a decade, even if they do everything else properly. That's why I think he should be traded, instead of extended. I don't think he will ever be more valuable than he will be this off season. His numbers might be similar, or even better for a while, but they're going to cost about 60 - 70% more than they do now. Value equals performance minus cost.
After the 2011 World Series, the Detroit Tigers signed Prince Fielder to a nine year, $214 Million contract. Fielder was a bit shorter and a bit heavier than Vlad, and three years older. After two seasons, the Tigers traded Prince along with $30 Million to the Texas Rangers for Ian Kinsler. The Rangers got 400 games from Prince, (34 Home Runs, 158 RBIs and a .269 Average over three seasons), for $138 Million.
These are the kinds of risks a team takes if they lock up a big-framed slugger, and Prince never played a home game on artificial turf.
Last edited:
