The Leafs play Detroit on April 13 which could be an elimination game for Detroit. I think the Leafs will clinch this week.
The question really is can Detroit pass one of Washington or Philly. Not whether they'll catch the Leafs.
Even if by some divine miracle Detroit passes the Leafs both Caps and Flyers would also need to pass Leafs. TB also.
4 teams would need to pass them. Not just Detroit. If Leafs lose all their games they can still get loser points.
Wings/Flyers/Caps can win all of their remaining 24 games combined and Leafs lose all of their 9 games and Leafs can still make the playoffs.
The only thing Leafs are in control of now is whether they'll help Florida pass Boston and whether they'll help TB pass them for Leafs to have a chance to play the Metro Division in the 1st round. If Leafs beat Florida tonight it'll better their chance of playing them 1st round.