Anyone think it's time to cut their losses?
- Thread starter Robert Mugabe
- Start date
The real players are very experienced at "shaking and shaking" the tree to knock out the bit players, the ones barely hanging on to to the branches.
Once the ground is strewn with the 'fallen on their heads', last of the hanger onners, they swoop in to scoop up the remnants at rock bottom prices.
Think - big bears shaking the trees full of tiny, scared shitless, squirrels.
I hope. Just what with WW3 under way and gaining momentum and China looking to invade Taiwan. and inflation news, wishing I had cashed out before Christmas.
Last year I had my best year ever making about 22% overall while maintaining about 35% in cash and bonds and preferred shares throughout. This year I am hanging on to my cash of about 20% and got rid of all of the bond funds/etfs a few months ago.
This year down about 10-11 % which I had been expecting at some point from the beginning of 2021. The problem is knowing when. One big problem with selling out is that it may now be too late or nearly too late with most of the damage already done. But the bigger problem is if you are out and the market recovers and gains 10 or 15% in a hurry you will probably be on sidelines and stay on the sidelines feeling that you missed out.
Remember that approximately 70% of years the market goes up, about 30% it goes down.
IN my lifetime the crash of 1987, the financial crises of 2009 and the pandemic crash of 2020 all resulted in very fast losses of 30-35% and in every case those losses were completely recovered within a year or less.
Ya. I hear you, but thing look worse these days. No good news. I read somewhere that you should let go at 8% losses. Worried about NVDA. Down 44%. If China invades Taiwan. Could be a penny stock and disappear. Making the 56% I've still got look pretty good.
Yeah. Who knows. It can be argued that stocks are still overvalued and people like Jeremy Grantham think we have not reached the stage where people are totally disgusted with stocks.
We did have 40 years of declining interest rates. I hope we get half decent revenue/earnings from Oracle tomorrow after the bell. I was happy with Nutrien but the last couple of months it has been a disappointment. Might put in a stink bid for Topicus to buy some more shares. Crescent Point has been doing well.
This will take 2-3 years for stocks to recover. With supply demand and high oil price and inflation at 8% and risising interest rate. We will be looking full blown recession. One thing i learned after COVID. CASH is KING>
With US inflation above 8%; Fed Funds overnight rate still well below 2%; unresolved supply chain issues, super tight labor market and the Russian war of atrocity after atrocity after atrocity ongoing the Fed Funds rate will have to climb to between 3 -4% before any dust begins to settle.
Remember the broader US stock market is only down less than 20%.
Not cutting out. Staying invested and even adding to profitable large tech, base metals, energy and some financials. Averaging down on some quality companies. In two years I anticipate I will be laughing. Already am on some measures. Oh on leverage I do not borrow more than 20-25% of my total portfolio value. Currently at about 15% borrowed. Interest is deductible on the investments (Canadian dividend payers) that I make using loans, so it is basically free money for me.
Once things have dropped, it's probably too late to sell out. Might as well ride it out, if you are going to turn into a fiscal hermit crab every time the market undergoes a correction and get all sex nuts and special needs strong every time things do well, you are begging to sell low and buy high.
Seems all the forseable bad news is already know and reflected in the prices. Sure more bad shit could happen, I mean, zombies. Justin Beiber doing a new evil plot etc. That however can happen anytime.
Seems all the forseable bad news is already know and reflected in the prices. Sure more bad shit could happen, I mean, zombies. Justin Beiber doing a new evil plot etc. That however can happen anytime.
You should have sold everything except energy months ago, but it's not too late, because the selloff is not over.
In times like this, it’s never a good idea to sell. By doing so you just realize your loss.
It’s actually a good idea to double down and buy some good companies at low prices. For example, I sold some of my index fundsThat we’re down 20%, and purchased shares of Google, Tesla, and Netflix. These are companies I believe in, and I think will bounce back.
What is certain is that Inflation will eventually drop, and so will interest rates. When that happens the stock market will rebound. The stock market is not really overvalued anymore, even the Nasdaq. I think the market crash has more to do with extreme fear, rather than fundamentals. This is similar to the coronavirus crash, where stocks rebounded almost immediately. This time around the scary monster is not the virus, but inflation, the war, and High oil prices.
It's also cutting your loss to prevent further losses. Don't say I didn't warn you!
If some rando on the internet tells you the sell off isn't over, well why wouldn't you believe this and base your whole financial strategy on that. I mean damn man, it's the internet.
The advice from a random guy on the internet is no worse than that from the dozens of financial analysts who all disagree with each other
