WAR IMMINENT:Russian commanders given instructions to attack Ukraine

[Frankfooter]

I agree that the Donbass regions were sustained purely by Russia and are puppet states. There are a couple of others in other neighbouring countries that Moscow keeps afloat. The majority of people in those regions are Russophone and Russian in political views and loyalty. As with Crimea, it was always unrealistic to expect them to align with a Ukraine that was not also aligned and subservient to Moscow. So when Kiev aligned west in 2014, those regions broke away. Ukraine was not strong enough to stop them doing so, as the Russian army (unofficially) intervened and kicked the Ukrainian forces' ass.

Pro Putin factions in other Ukrainian regions attempted to break away in 2014 and to dissolve the country, leaving at best a rump around Kiev and Lviv. In particular, there was rioting in Odessa and somewhat fainter rumblings in Kharkov. The pro Russian rioters and street gangs in Odessa were decisively beaten by their pro Uke counterparts and there was a notorious incident wherein some pro Russians were trapped and burned in a government building. Moscow did NOT use this as a cover to escalate their covert war against Kiev. And everything then subsided into a defacto Cold War.

There is no imminent probability of other Ukrainian regions seceding to join Moscow. They would already have done so. Putin pays Ukrainian politicians to pose as pro Moscow. He also pays British, French, German and American politicians to suck his cock as well. It's a standard Putin move. But this does not entail that large chunks of Ukraine are going to simply join Russia. Western Ukraine is economically quite prosperous. And many Ukrainians have heritage animosity to Russia or simply don't like the Putin system and the man himself.

It's not as though Donbass style "independence" is inherently attractive. Ukraine is majorly fucked up, but Russia is fucked up a million times worse and then some. Kharkov has no incentive to become "Kharkov, Russia" as opposed to "Kharkov, Ukraine".

Ukraine is not going to attack Russia over Donetsk and Luhansk. Why tf would it?! The attack would be suicidal and it would also be pointless. Donbass has not been part of Ukraine for 7 years. Functionally, it was always at odds with much of the rest of the country. And it adds little economic value, as it has a rust belt vintage, coal-based economy.

In fact, Putin's official recognition of the 2 enclaves is a big, fat nothing in real terms.

You could do way better than just cut-n-pasting the rightie press and posting it on TERB.

Vlad gets to brag to Russia that he gained them some land and screwed the US and NATO.
That gets him some cred over something that won't mean much of anything else.

Ukraine gets rid of their Alberta (minus the oil).

 

[mandrill]

So if he has no intention to invade, why do this big show? He has just weakened his standing with the West and made himself a pariah.
He loses a lot for nothing it seems

Fucked if I know. And why choose NOW to do it?!

One of the things that really scares me about this shit is that I can't figure out what his motivation for doing it right now can be. He wants Ukraine back. He also wants the Baltic States - and that WILL cause WW3!! - but he lived wo Ukraine for 7 years. And nothing has really changed since 2014.

One of my guesses is that he is just prepping for a GOP administration and Congress in 2024, where the US public has been battered into submission with 2 years of GOP lackey propaganda about how Ukraine "isn't a real country and belongs to Russia in fact". The same nonsense JC posts. He's hoping the US will do a Neville Chamberlain move and sign Ukraine out of existence and Trump would probably do just that!

 

[stinkynuts]

Why?

Likely this will be as far is it goes.
Vlad gets what he wants, there is no easy response so nothing will happen.
No war, gas prices stay the same.

NATO won't really care.
There will be some angry commentaries posted but that's about it.

So no stock crash? That’s reassuring

 

[jcpro]

So if he has no intention to invade, why do this big show? He has just weakened his standing with the West and made himself a pariah.


He loses a lot for nothing it seems

He didn't make himself a pariah, that's the whole point. He never crossed the Ukrainian border as he said that he wouldn't. The Donbas and Luhansk were always his objectives. This is a huge win for him at home and in Europe in general. Virtually without spending a ruble nor a single Russian life, he reclaimed what Russians consider their own. Not only that, he neutralized Germany who can claim, credibly, that it was the result of the Minsk (Dis)Agreements and oppose American sanctions with clear conscience or at least dilute them sufficiently to make the gas flowing.. BTW, another failure of the American intelligence.

 

[fall]

I guess threats are not the way to go with Putin. LOL!

Of curse not. USA and Europe have a very long history of tough talk and no action. I expect, it will be the same again: strong condemnation a virtue signalling with toothless sanctions.

 

[jcpro]

Of curse not. USA and Europe have a very long history of tough talk and no action. I expect, it will be the same again: strong condemnation a virtue signalling with toothless sanctions.

Just like the Crimea. Correct. Soon, as soon as tomorrow morning, many news outlets will run stories on the Russian "rights" in the disputed areas and the plight of the poor oppressed Russians and how irrelevant the whole thing is in the greater scheme of things. Just like Crimea.

 

[stinkynuts]

Just like the Crimea. Correct. Soon, as soon as tomorrow morning, many news outlets will run stories on the Russian "rights" in the disputed areas and the plight of the poor oppressed Russians and how irrelevant the whole thing is in the greater scheme of things. Just like Crimea.

Biden was very forceful about the severe consequences Russia would face by the West if he invaded Ukraine. We will see if Biden follows through. If he doesn’t it will be game over for him politically. He has already failed miserably with Afghanistan. With all the domestic failures l, including the inability to get his own party to support his signature Build Back Better bill, he will seen as utterly weak and incompetent.

 

[jcpro]

Biden was very forceful about the severe consequences Russia would face by the West if he invaded Ukraine. We will see if Biden follows through. If he doesn’t it will be game over for him politically. He has already failed miserably with Afghanistan. With all the domestic failures l, including the inability to get his own party to support his signature Build Back Better bill, he will seen as utterly weak and incompetent.

And Putin is giving Joe an out of the "crisis"- look Joe, I'm not invading Ukraine, I'm just sending peacekeeping force into an area that's not part of Ukraine.

 

[Frankfooter]

So no stock crash? That’s reassuring

Not from this I would expect.

 

[fall]

Biden was very forceful about the severe consequences Russia would face by the West if he invaded Ukraine. We will see if Biden follows through. If he doesn’t it will be game over for him politically. He has already failed miserably with Afghanistan. With all the domestic failures l, including the inability to get his own party to support his signature Build Back Better bill, he will seen as utterly weak and incompetent.

These "consequences" will be just a smoke for U.S. voters. As usual, tough talk and media persuasion that "U.S. reaction is strong" and "consequence are severe". I am sure they will even allow NS2 to start (with a few months delay and a warning "if Russians will not behave, there will be consequences")

 

[fall]

No, it's a game of chicken and this is just the next fake bluff.

If Putin wanted Ukraine, he'd send tank columns into Kharkov and down the Dnepr into Kiev. It would be over in a couple of days and then the West would sanction the fuck out of Russia and NATO would start to seriously re arm for WW3.

But it will be undemocratic. Now everything is according to the rule of law and the wish of the people. Putin always follow democratic procedures to the latter (and if he cannot, he change the laws in, again, completely lawful and democratic way)

 

[Leimonis]

No, it's a game of chicken and this is just the next fake bluff.

If Putin wanted Ukraine, he'd send tank columns into Kharkov and down the Dnepr into Kiev. It would be over in a couple of days and then the West would sanction the fuck out of Russia and NATO would start to seriously re arm for WW3.

I cannot imagine this being a good scenario for Putin. Guerilla war is what both Russia and Ukraine used since Napoleon times. When nazis took Kiev they have been executing civilians in response to resistance attacks. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_partisans
What the fuck is Putin supposed to do when his troops are attacked by partizans in Kiev or other large cities where the population does not support Russia?

 

[mandrill]

But it will be undemocratic. Now everything is according to the rule of law and the wish of the people. Putin always follow democratic procedures to the latter (and if he cannot, he change the laws in, again, completely lawful and democratic way)

He murders people and loots his own country. He's an international criminal, protected only by his position.

 

[mandrill]

So if he has no intention to invade, why do this big show? He has just weakened his standing with the West and made himself a pariah.
He loses a lot for nothing it seems

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1495932356632494096

 

[mandrill]

He didn't make himself a pariah, that's the whole point. He never crossed the Ukrainian border as he said that he wouldn't. The Donbas and Luhansk were always his objectives. This is a huge win for him at home and in Europe in general. Virtually without spending a ruble nor a single Russian life, he reclaimed what Russians consider their own. Not only that, he neutralized Germany who can claim, credibly, that it was the result of the Minsk (Dis)Agreements and oppose American sanctions with clear conscience or at least dilute them sufficiently to make the gas flowing.. BTW, another failure of the American intelligence.

That's silly. He didn't have to mobilize to annex Donbass. He could just have made an announcement from his mansion on the Black Sea and he could have done it any time in the last 7 years. The Western reaction would have been exactly the same. No one gives a fuck about Donbass. The Ukrainians don't even care.

What concerns everybody is the military build-up opposite Kharkiv and in Belarus opposite Kiev.

 

[Leimonis]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1495932356632494096

Putin Signs Order Declaring Tucker Carlson’s Studio Russian Territory (c) Andy Borowitz

 

[mandrill]

Putin Signs Order Declaring Tucker Carlson’s Studio Russian Territory (c) Andy Borowitz
View attachment 124815

I guess in Fucker-Carlson-Land, Canada and Ukraine are both tyrannous dictatorships and Putin is a philanthropist.

 

[Frankfooter]

That's silly. He didn't have to mobilize to annex Donbass. He could just have made an announcement from his mansion on the Black Sea and he could have done it any time in the last 7 years. The Western reaction would have been exactly the same. No one gives a fuck about Donbass. The Ukrainians don't even care.

What concerns everybody is the military build-up opposite Kharkiv and in Belarus opposite Kiev.

Wasn't that buildup for show?
Doesn't Vlad have what he wants for now?

He gets the US and NATO to act scared, gets to send in his 'peacekeepers' and now gets the big domestic win.

 

[fall]

He murders people and loots his own country. He's an international criminal, protected only by his position.

Yes, but everything he is doing is according to the law and democratic. And there is nothing U.S. and Europe can or want to do about it.

P.S.: I am glad we agree on our views of Putin. Now if only you are able to see that JT is Putin at heart but with much less power for now.

 

[Leimonis]

I guess in Fucker-Carlson-Land, Canada and Ukraine are both tyrannous dictatorships and Putin is a philanthropist.

as long as Russia can help with election...