Texas Covid cases going down after relaxing mask law coupled with multiple factors

[shack]

Holy fuck you're thick in the head

Every time you're wrong, you call others stupid and post a smiley with tears.

The rate of infection is multifactorial and without knowing how much each factor contributes, it is impossible to draw conclusions as to the impact of masks, except that the vast majority of health experts agree that mask wearing (even if non N95) decreases the rate of infection.

 

[shack]

Can any of us, even the experts, do better than an educated guess?

Yes. Phil can give an uneducated guess.

 

[Phil C. McNasty]

So far they've seen dramatic effects at ~50%.
Herd immunity is higher (exact number unsure)
But there is no reason to think you wouldn't start seeing effects much closer to 10% depending on what other factors are in play.
At 10% you wouldn't expect to see the vaccines driving the decline, even if they were contributing to it.

Okay.

But I still think unleashing 6 million unmasked Texans into society should have caused at the very least a minor uptick, and yet it didnt.
For me thats enough evidence to agree with many scientists who say surgical masks dont work, and N95 masks are needed.

Not that it really matters much anymore since we're all gonna be vaccinated soon

 

[Phil C. McNasty]

Every time you're wrong, you call others stupid and post a smiley with tears.

The rate of infection is multifactorial and without knowing how much each factor contributes, it is impossible to draw conclusions as to the impact of masks, except that the vast majority of health experts agree that mask wearing (even if non N95) decreases the rate of infection

Have you surveyed every health expert around the world to come to that conclusion??
If so, can I see your polling data please

 

[Valcazar]

But I still think unleashing 6 million unmasked Texans into society should have caused at the very least a minor uptick, and yet it didnt.
For me thats enough evidence to agree with many scientists who say surgical masks dont work, and N95 masks are needed.

That was the worry. But at most it probably slowed the downward slope is all.
Given how multifactorial these things are, you can't point to one mask mandate and conclude anything. You need a bunch where you can start drawing connections and see where you get some natural experiments.
If the mask mandates were enforced county by county, you would have something interesting to look at. You can do tracking based on mask mandates coming or going in a bunch of states at once maybe.

Teasing out one variable among many is very difficult unless it is overwhelmingly the strongest effect.

 

[shack]

Have you surveyed every health expert around the world to come to that conclusion??
If so, can I see your polling data please

I don't need studies. It is basic logic.

If you have a + b x c = 23d and you don't know what a or b or c is, you have no way to figure out d.

The rate of covid is determined by multiple factors and since we don't know how much the other factors contribute we cannot calculate how much any other single factor contributes, including masks.

.

Nobody knows if other factors are playing a role in the continuation of cases going down.

 

[PeteOsborne]

That was the worry. But at most it probably slowed the downward slope is all.
Given how multifactorial these things are, you can't point to one mask mandate and conclude anything. You need a bunch where you can start drawing connections and see where you get some natural experiments.
If the mask mandates were enforced county by county, you would have something interesting to look at. You can do tracking based on mask mandates coming or going in a bunch of states at once maybe.

Teasing out one variable among many is very difficult unless it is overwhelmingly the strongest effect.

Your GIF is hypnotic.
Find myself wondering what those twin piercings would feel like.

 

[basketcase]

And continued to decline even after many people stopped wearing their masks, even though some experts said new cases would start to increase again (which didnt happen)

Sorry but we've discussed this before. When considering the incubation period, the decline in cases was over by the time any decrease in masks (if there was much) could have any impact.

The actual conclusion when taking this into account is that cases were decreasing until some people stopped wearing masks.

 

[Phil C. McNasty]

I don't need studies. It is basic logic.

If you have a + b x c = 23d and you don't know what a or b or c is, you have no way to figure out d.

The rate of covid is determined by multiple factors and since we don't know how much the other factors contribute we cannot calculate how much any other single factor contributes, including masks

Thats what I thought, you're pulling stats out of your ass

 

[Phil C. McNasty]

Sorry but we've discussed this before. When considering the incubation period, the decline in cases was over by the time any decrease in masks (if there was much) could have any impact.

The actual conclusion when taking this into account is that cases were decreasing until some people stopped wearing masks

New cases are still decreasing.

BTW the Texas Rangers are playing for an almost 3/4 full stadium every game at Globe Life Field (located in Dallas). Very few people are wearing masks. Their last game against Seattle they had 30,632 in attendance: https://www.mlb.com/gameday/mariner...nal,lock_state=final,game_tab=box,game=634182

The stadium holds around 40,000 people. So lets say they have a homestand of 6 games, thats just short of 200,000 fans sitting in the stadium most who are unmasked. And when those same fans are released into the city of Dallas, dont you think we would see massive spikes in Covid if going maskless was so dangerous?? Yet, we're not seeing it.

Conclusion: current masks people are wearing make no difference

 

[shack]

Thats what I thought, you're pulling stats out of your ass

What the hell are you talking about? I posted no stats. My ass is intact.

I simply pointed out using logic and a totally fictitious equation purely as an example of how your conclusion that masks don't make a difference is preposterous since the rate of covid transmission is dependant on numerous factors of which none of us know how much any of the factors contribute.

What stat did I post? I can't wait to hear this one.

 

[squeezer]

What the hell are you talking about? I posted no stats. My ass is intact.

I simply pointed out using logic and a totally fictitious equation purely as an example of how your conclusion that masks don't make a difference is preposterous since the rate of covid transmission is dependant on numerous factors of which none of us know how much any of the factors contribute.

What stat did I post? I can't wait to hear this one.

When you need to borrow the troll swatter, let me know!!!

 

[Phil C. McNasty]

What the hell are you talking about? I posted no stats. My ass is intact.

I simply pointed out using logic and a totally fictitious equation purely as an example of how your conclusion that masks don't make a difference is preposterous since the rate of covid transmission is dependant on numerous factors of which none of us know how much any of the factors contribute

Actually logic would tell you that when masks were made mandatory in Ontario and cases skyrocketed, and then mask laws were relaxed in Texas and new cases didnt go up (they kept going down), that those silly surgical masks most people wear makes ZERO difference in Covid transmission.

But you have to think logically and rationally though

 

[Phil C. McNasty]

When you need to borrow the troll swatter, let me know!!!

Make sure you give yourself a good whack over the head with it

 

[squeezer]

Make sure you give yourself a good whack over the head with it

No fucking way! It's a mother swatter and it will splat the troll. PHIL DUCK!!!!!

I'm just trying to protect your gif!

 

[shack]

Actually logic would tell you that when masks were made mandatory in Ontario and cases skyrocketed, and then mask laws were relaxed in Texas and new cases didnt go up (they kept going down), that those silly surgical masks most people wear makes ZERO difference in Covid transmission.

Do you logically think that a mask mandate is the ONLY variable factor that comes into play?

a+b+c+d= x

What is x if you don't know the values of a or b or c or d? You are trying to tell us what x is without knowing the other variables. Totally illogical.

 

[Phil C. McNasty]

Do you logically think that a mask mandate is the ONLY variable factor that comes into play?

Nobody knows that for sure, but based on the information we do have its logical to conclude surgical masks haven't made a difference, and illogical to assume they have made a difference.

My hypothesis is a lot stronger than yours

 

[basketcase]

New cases are still decreasing.
...

Not anywhere near the rate of when everyone was required to wear masks. The data clearly shows Texas was having fantastic decreases until the mask mandate ended.

 

[basketcase]

Actually logic would tell you that when masks were made mandatory in Ontario and cases skyrocketed, and then mask laws were relaxed in Texas and new cases didnt go up (they kept going down), that those silly surgical masks most people wear makes ZERO difference in Covid transmission.

But you have to think logically and rationally though

Why do you keep pretending that most people weren't wearing masks until Ontario's official mandate?

 

[Valcazar]

Here, you can all just look at the actual data if you want and argue from there.

Home - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center

Johns Hopkins experts in global public health, infectious disease, and emergency preparedness have been at the forefront of the international response to COVID-19.

coronavirus.jhu.edu

As you can see, it even tracks the openings and closings.



As you can see when zoomed in, things have been pretty flat for the last month or so.