All the factors function together to create the final result. As Phil says, if we don't know HOW all those factors work together, it is impossible to know how much any one of those factors came into play. It's like an equation with 5 unknown factors. It can't be solved.
Texas Covid cases going down after relaxing mask law coupled with multiple factors
- Thread starter Phil C. McNasty
- Start date
And continued to decline even after many people stopped wearing their masks, even though some experts said new cases would start to increase again (which didnt happen)
No, because masks are the only variable we can definitively identify. Vaccines we cannot identify as a factor because herd immunity is not supposed to kick in when less then 40% of Texans have been vaccinated (and I'm using March 11th as a starting point)
Add to that masks currently are not required in Florida: https://www.google.ca/search?as_q=a...ch=&as_occt=any&safe=images&as_filetype=&tbs=
How lame is that? You've already admitted that other factors come into play.
Do you actually believe the drivel that you post. At 40% vaccines are a factor, but at 39% it isn't? Hahahaha.
Where did I say at 40% vaccines are a factor, but at 39% they arent??
Right now (according to NY Times) Texas sits at 40% vaccinated: https://archive.vn/Bnd4W
Are you saying 40% (plus 10 to 15% people who have natural antibodies) is enough to achieve herd immunity??
So you do not believe the vaccines have helped at all with the numbers down as they did with the old age homes here?
Are you saying vaccines have no visible effect on transmission rates until herd immunity is achieved?
It does, but not until it reaches a critical mass. Texas new cases started drastically declining first week of February, and there's no way the vaccine could have been responsible for that (since less then 10% were vaccinated)
Bottom line is, 20% of Texans (and probably a lot more now) are not wearing their masks. Thats about 6 million people. We should have seen a slight increase in new cases if that many people not wearing their masks was so dangerous. We're not seeing at all, we're seeing a steady decline
You said that herd immunity starts at 40%, implying that only when they reach that point do vaccines become a factor.
Here's your quote: Vaccines we cannot identify as a factor because herd immunity is not supposed to kick in when less then 40% of Texans have been vaccinated (and I'm using March 11th as a starting point)
Holy fuck you're thick in the head
Less than 40% was the approximate number of Texans who are (or were) vaccinated at the time
Masks are the only variable that changed from March 11th when mask laws were relaxed.
New cases did not cause an increase in new cases. Therefore we can conclude masks made ZERO difference
And what do you consider critical mass?
Texas was the first state to reach 1 million vaccinated - sometime in January.
But you're right, I wouldn't attribute the Feb decline primarily to vaccines. Just about every state had a spike that then started to drop severely in second half of January/beginning of February.
I dont think anyone knows the exact number, but from everything I've read you need more than 40%
Better weather leading more people outside, which may be safer than being inside in poorly ventilated places, could be a factor in reduced infections.
Using your type of crazy math, a 20% decrease in mask usage should lead to a 20% increase in infections. Then, by your type of math, shouldn't a 10% increase in vaccinations lead to a 10% decrease in infections, lol.
But, then, what if a 10% increase in the vaccinated is more powerful than a 20% decrease in mask usage? What would happen then re infections? Would they go up or down?
Now that over 50% of Texans are vaccinated, shouldn't that, by your wonderful math skills, lead to a 50% reduction in infections?
You say mask usage went from 100% to 80% & even lower now. But where are you pulling this stuff out of? Your derriere? There have been many places with mask mandates where many people still did not wear them, even with large mass rallies happening, including some super spreader events. So obviously mask mandates do not mean 100% of the people - including covidiots & rebels & people with mask exemptions for health reasons, & babies, etc - are wearing them. And with news of more infectious & deadly covid VOC in the USA & elsewhere, wouldn't that be a motivation for people wearing masks to keep wearing them & for those who weren't wearing them to start wearing them?
You have suggested that wearing dirty masks may lead to even more infections, implying that such masks are less than worthless & detrimental. How, then, can you draw any conclusions re mask usage affecting the number of infections? Have you figured out yet whether or not mask usage lowers or raises the number of infections?
So far they've seen dramatic effects at ~50%.
Herd immunity is higher (exact number unsure).
But there is no reason to think you wouldn't start seeing effects much closer to 10% depending on what other factors are in play.
At 10% you wouldn't expect to see the vaccines driving the decline, even if they were contributing to it.
Actually many variables are constantly changing & have changed since March 11th in Texas, including the numbers who've been vaccinated, the weather, news re new & more deadly covid VOC in the USA & abroad, testing numbers, numbers of irresponsible & covidiot human bodies, possibly even unvaccinated pets & other animals with covid, etc. As the omniscient being that you are, have you been able to track all these accurately on a daily, weekly & monthly basis? If so, please share all those details ;
The vaccine's full protective effects don't kick in immediately, but after a number of weeks or months. So there is a delayed effect. I wonder if the immune system might even be down immediately after vaccination, making the vaccinated more susceptible to infection.
There's so many variables to consider. How can any of us know what exactly is driving infection numbers up or down. Can any of us, even the experts, do better than an educated guess?
